predictions for West Virginia game

Let me start by saying thanks to hoshi, Socalhawk, and HawkErrant.  I'm back home
now, trying to get back to a normal routine.

Two home games against lower division teams.  Very dangerous, as there could be a
tendency to take these opponents lightly.  You can't afford to do that in the
Big 12 this season.

West Virginia is a bit of an enigma.  Seven Overtimes has the Mountaineers ranked
as high as #17, whereas Real Time has them ranked as low as #71.  Colley also does
not regard them very highly, ranking the Mountaineers down at #56, but Pomeroy has
West Virginia ranked #21.  Quite a disparity in rankings, especially considering
how late it is in the season.

Dunkel is the most optimistic, favoring Kansas by 17 points, whereas Seven Overtimes
is the most pessimistic, giving Kansas just a 4 point margin.  The average is 9.6
points, with a scatter of 2.9 points.

Kansas has positive trend and mental toughness ratings, while West Virginia is
negative in both, but none are statistically significant.  West Virginia is more
than a point more inconsistent than Kansas.

West Virginia had a good outing against Oklahoma State, but preceded that with
three consecutive below expectation performances.  Meanwhile, Kansas is on a
five-game above expectation streak following the debacle in Ames.  If you're
going to expect the law of averages to kick in at some point and suffer a
below expectation performance, one of these next two games could be that without
triggering a loss.  Sure, it would be nice if the streak of above expectation
performances could continue.

We'll soon be heading into the Big 12 Tournament, with three games in three days.
That'll be rough on a team that is nicked up with a short bench.  Maybe Clemence
and Ejiofor can get some playing time and knock some of the rust off.  We'll need
them in Kansas City.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WVU     KU      Defensive Stats      WVU     KU
Points/Game         76.6    76.5     Opp Points/Game     70.6    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +5.9    +8.5     Opp Effective FG %  50.0    46.8
Assists/Game        13.4    17.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.0     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.1    36.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.6    25.2
Effective FG %      51.7    52.6     Blocks/Game          3.1     3.9
Off Rebound %       32.4    28.3     Steals/Game          6.4     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.413   0.298     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    16.9
Turnover %          15.7    15.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU              WVU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.57           +1.28    
inconsistency         11.36           12.60    
trend                 +0.22 ± 0.27    -0.25 ± 0.30
mental toughness      +0.15 ± 0.26    -0.13 ± 0.26
average total pts      144.43         147.21    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, two of which West Virginia has
played twice (Texas, Texas Tech), two of which Kansas has played twice (Kansas State,
Iowa State), and four of which both have played twice (Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma,
TCU), in which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the
head-to-head in Morgantown, giving us seventeen scores to compare:

KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU  -6 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)     WVU  -6 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +9 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -7 OSU on road ( -3 neutral court)     WVU +18 OSU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU  +22 WVU at home (+18 neutral court)     KU  -12 WVU at home (-16 neutral court)

KU  +16 BU  at home (+12 neutral court)     KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -5 BU  at home ( -9 neutral court)     WVU -12 BU  on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)     KU  +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)

KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU  -1 OU  on road ( +3 neutral court)     WVU +32 OU  at home (+28 neutral court)
KU  +28 WVU at home (+24 neutral court)     KU  -24 WVU at home (-28 neutral court)

KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)     KU   +5 TCU on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU  +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)     WVU  -4 TCU on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  -28 WVU at home (-32 neutral court)     KU  +13 WVU at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)
WVU  -8 UT  at home (-12 neutral court)     WVU -34 UT  on road (-30 neutral court)
KU  +20 WVU at home (+16 neutral court)     KU  +38 WVU at home (+34 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU +15 TTU on road (+19 neutral court)     WVU  -6 TTU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU   -8 WVU at home (-12 neutral court)     KU  +21 WVU at home (+17 neutral court)

KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
WVU  +5 ISU at home ( +1 neutral court)     WVU  +5 ISU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +1 WVU at home ( -3 neutral court)     KU   -8 WVU at home (-12 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  +22 WVU at home (+18 neutral court)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, and only five favor West Virginia.
The average favors Kansas by 8.41 points, with a scatter of 18.77 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tre Mitchell (forward)
most points        Erik Stevenson (guard)
most rebounds      Jimmy Bell Jr. (forward)
most assists       Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most steals        Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks        James Okonkwo (forward)
most turnovers     Erik Stevenson (guard)
most fouls         Erik Stevenson (guard)

Guard Josiah Davis has a wrist injury.  A date for his return has not been set.
However, he's last on the team in minutes played per game and points scored per
game, so not a major contributor.

                                                          23-5           16-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.21   80   71       79       #  3   #  1    # 32   #  7
Sagarin Predictor       +7.68   80   72       73.9     #  5   #  1    # 26   #  7 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +9.40   80   71                #  3   #  1    # 32   #  7 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.86   81   71                #  3   #  1    # 34   #  7 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.17   82   70       85    
Massey                  +8.00   78   70       74       #  2   #  1    # 38   #  7
Pomeroy                 +6.94   79   72                #  7   #  1    # 21   #  6
Greenfield             +10.00   80   70       76.5     #  6   #  1    # 27   #  8
Dunkel                 +17.00   81   64                #  3           # 63
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.50   80   70                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +7.76   78   71       74.8     #  5   #  1    # 23   #  6
Real Time              +13.00   81   68       75.3     #  3   #  1    # 71   #  3 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   75   71       73       # 11   #  1    # 17   # 11
DPPI                    +8.50   78   69                #  8   #  1    # 28   #  4 
ESPN BPI                +9.10                 79.8     #  8   #  1    # 26   #  7
Whitlock                +8.29                          #  4   #  1    # 31   #  4
Colley Matrix          +13.61                          #  2   #  1    # 56   #  4
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 27
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents        +8.41         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 37
Pomeroy offense                                        # 20           # 18
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 60
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 82           #121
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.58   79.5 70.0     76.8
scatter                  2.89    1.8  2.0      3.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 25-6
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #320 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +30.04    -5.04
HOME   #202 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.65    +0.35
NEUT   # 31 Duke                        69  64    +5.03    -0.03
HOME   #115 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.57   -11.57
NEUT   # 44 NC State                    80  74    +6.20    -0.20
NEUT   # 51 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.45    -6.45
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.05   -12.95
HOME   #293 Texas Southern              87  55   +28.13    +3.87
HOME   # 56 Seton Hall                  91  65   +11.21   +14.79
AWAY   # 62 Missouri                    95  67    +5.29   +22.71
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +6.21   +15.79
HOME   #161 Harvard                     68  54   +20.24    -6.24
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              69  67    +8.67    -6.67
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.03    +0.97
AWAY   # 26 West Virginia               76  62    +1.56   +12.44
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    79  75   +11.11    -7.11
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  62  60    +7.20    -5.20
AWAY   # 28 Kansas State                82  83    +1.58    -2.58
HOME   # 18 TCU                         60  83    +6.61   -29.61
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      69  75    -1.79    -4.21
AWAY   # 25 Kentucky                    77  68    +1.50    +7.50
HOME   # 28 Kansas State                90  78    +7.70    +4.30
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  53  68    +1.08   -16.08
HOME   #  8 Texas                       88  80    +3.50    +4.50
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.99   +18.01
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              87  76    +2.55    +8.45
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      87  71    +4.33   +11.67
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         63  58    +0.49    +4.51
HOME   # 26 West Virginia                         +7.68             0.739
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                            +8.15             0.757
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -2.62             0.406

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #294 Mount St. Mary's            76  58   +23.56    -5.56
AWAY   # 67 Pittsburgh                  81  56    +1.21   +23.79
HOME   #241 Morehead State              75  57   +20.91    -2.91
HOME   #130 Pennsylvania                92  58   +13.74   +20.26
NEUT   #  9 Purdue                      68  80    -3.87    -8.13
NEUT   #242 Portland State              89  71   +17.88    +0.12
NEUT   # 49 Florida                     84  55    +2.71   +26.29
AWAY   # 19 Xavier-Ohio                 74  84    -4.12    -5.88
HOME   #187 Navy                        85  64   +17.12    +3.88
HOME   # 61 UAB                         81  70    +6.79    +4.21
HOME   #178 Buffalo                     96  78   +16.59    +1.41
HOME   #311 Stony Brook-NY              75  64   +24.57   -13.57
AWAY   # 28 Kansas State                76  82    -3.04    -2.96
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma State              60  67    -2.07    -4.93
HOME   #  5 Kansas                      62  76    -1.56   -12.44
HOME   # 11 Baylor                      78  83    -0.29    -4.71
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    76  77    +0.37    -1.37
HOME   # 18 TCU                         74  65    +1.99    +7.01
HOME   #  8 Texas                       61  69    -1.12    -6.88
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  76  61    -2.59   +17.59
HOME   # 21 Auburn                      80  77    +2.58    +0.42
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         72  76    -4.13    +0.13
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    93  61    +6.49   +25.51
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  76  71    +2.58    +2.42
AWAY   #  8 Texas                       60  94    -7.24   -26.76
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      67  79    -6.41    -5.59
HOME   # 32 Texas Tech                  72  78    +3.53    -9.53
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma State              85  67    +4.05   +13.95
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                                -7.68             0.261
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                            -3.54             0.384
HOME   # 28 Kansas State                          +3.08             0.609