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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for TCU game
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1 year 9 months ago #30454
by asteroid
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats TCU KU Defensive Stats TCU KU
Points/Game 76.5 77.0 Opp Points/Game 67.3 68.3
Avg Score Margin +9.2 +8.6 Opp Effective FG % 47.7 47.3
Assists/Game 16.7 17.2 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.1 9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.5 36.4 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.2 25.0
Effective FG % 51.3 53.0 Blocks/Game 4.8 4.0
Off Rebound % 31.4 28.4 Steals/Game 8.7 8.9
FTA/FGA 0.354 0.303 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.9 16.9
Turnover % 15.0 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU TCU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.59 +0.31
inconsistency 11.56 13.74
trend +0.22 ± 0.29 +0.40 ± 0.34
mental toughness +0.14 ± 0.27 +0.21 ± 0.21
average total pts 145.30 143.74
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which TCU has played twice
(West Virginia), one of which Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma State), and four of
which both have played twice (Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State), in
which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head
in Lawrence, giving us fifteen scores to compare:
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +1 TCU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU +16 BU at home (+12 neutral court)
TCU +1 BU on road ( +5 neutral court) KU -4 BU at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU -11 TCU on road ( -7 neutral court) KU +17 TCU on road (+21 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
TCU -2 ISU at home ( -6 neutral court) TCU -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU 0 TCU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU -8 TCU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +8 UT at home ( +4 neutral court)
TCU -4 UT on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU 0 TCU on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court) KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
TCU +14 KSU at home (+10 neutral court) TCU -21 KSU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU -6 TCU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU +16 TCU on road (+20 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court) KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
TCU -9 WVU on road ( -5 neutral court) TCU +4 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral court) KU +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU +23 OU on road (+27 neutral court)
TCU +27 OU at home (+23 neutral court) TCU +27 OU at home (+23 neutral court)
KU -27 TCU on road (-23 neutral court) KU 0 TCU on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court) KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TCU -6 OSU on road ( -2 neutral court) TCU +25 OSU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court) KU -27 TCU on road (-23 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
KU -31 TCU on road (-27 neutral court)
Only six of the comparisons favor Kansas, but only six favor TCU, with three being a
wash. The head-to-head result tips the scales in favor of TCU by 2.00 points with
a scatter of 16.59 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Damion Baugh (guard)
most points Mike Miles (guard)
most rebounds Emmanuel Miller (forward)
most assists Damion Baugh (guard)
most steals Damion Baugh (guard)
most blocks Charles O'Bannon Jr. (forward)
most turnovers Damion Baugh (guard)
most fouls Micah Peavy (guard)
Reserve guard Rondel Walker missed the last two games. He's tenth on the
team in minutes per game played and eleventh in points per game. Not a
major consideration for Monday's game.
22-5 18-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas TCU
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +1.75 75 73 57 # 3 # 1 # 20 # 26
Sagarin Predictor +0.10 74 74 61.3 # 5 # 1 # 16 # 26
Sagarin Golden Mean +1.26 75 74 # 3 # 1 # 18 # 26
Sagarin Recent Games +3.15 76 73 # 3 # 1 # 25 # 26
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.83 77 72 67
Massey +3.00 74 71 57 # 2 # 1 # 23 # 20
Pomeroy +0.76 75 74 # 7 # 1 # 19 # 25
Greenfield -2.00 74 76 50.0 # 6 # 1 # 16 # 14
Dunkel -5.00 74 79 # 3 # 34
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.00 74 76
Dolphin Predictive +0.68 74 73 52.4 # 5 # 1 # 15 # 12
Real Time -4.00 72 76 42.5 # 3 # 2 # 57 # 70
Seven Overtimes +1.00 72 72 66 # 10 # 1 # 44 # 67
DPPI -1.10 72 73 47 # 7 # 1 # 34 # 49
ESPN BPI -0.50 48.0 # 8 # 1 # 25 # 15
Whitlock +1.55 # 5 # 1 # 26 # 36
Colley Matrix +6.69 # 2 # 1 # 48 # 40
NCAA NET # 6 # 21
LRMC # # # #
common opponents -2.00
Massey composite # 3 # 25
Pomeroy offense # 15 # 45
Pomeroy defense # 15 # 23
Pomeroy tempo # 76 # 43
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +0.45 74.1 74.0 54.8
scatter 2.94 1.5 2.1 8.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #317 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +29.84 -4.84
HOME #210 North Dakota State 82 59 +22.87 +0.13
NEUT # 28 Duke 69 64 +4.74 +0.26
HOME #130 Southern Utah 82 76 +18.23 -12.23
NEUT # 45 NC State 80 74 +6.35 -0.35
NEUT # 54 Wisconsin 69 68 +7.67 -6.67
NEUT # 3 Tennessee 50 64 -1.49 -12.51
HOME #288 Texas Southern 87 55 +27.98 +4.02
HOME # 50 Seton Hall 91 65 +10.51 +15.49
AWAY # 63 Missouri 95 67 +5.42 +22.58
HOME # 15 Indiana 84 62 +5.69 +16.31
HOME #158 Harvard 68 54 +20.15 -6.15
HOME # 35 Oklahoma State 69 67 +8.26 -6.26
AWAY # 33 Texas Tech 75 72 +2.06 +0.94
AWAY # 32 West Virginia 76 62 +1.96 +12.04
HOME # 51 Oklahoma 79 75 +10.53 -6.53
HOME # 21 Iowa State 62 60 +6.73 -4.73
AWAY # 30 Kansas State 82 83 +1.86 -2.86
HOME # 16 TCU 60 83 +6.26 -29.26
AWAY # 9 Baylor 69 75 -2.37 -3.63
AWAY # 26 Kentucky 77 68 +1.26 +7.74
HOME # 30 Kansas State 90 78 +8.02 +3.98
AWAY # 21 Iowa State 53 68 +0.57 -15.57
HOME # 10 Texas 88 80 +3.82 +4.18
AWAY # 51 Oklahoma 78 55 +4.37 +18.63
AWAY # 35 Oklahoma State 87 76 +2.10 +8.90
HOME # 9 Baylor 87 71 +3.79 +12.21
AWAY # 16 TCU +0.10 0.503
HOME # 32 West Virginia +8.12 0.748
HOME # 33 Texas Tech +8.22 0.758
AWAY # 10 Texas -2.34 0.416
Here is TCU's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #340 Ark.-Pine Bluff 73 72 +28.93 -27.93
HOME #354 Lamar 77 66 +31.55 -20.55
HOME #225 Northwestern State 63 64 +20.88 -21.88
HOME #293 ULM 95 60 +25.00 +10.00
NEUT #223 California 59 48 +17.26 -6.26
NEUT # 24 Iowa 79 66 +0.94 +12.06
HOME # 29 Providence 75 62 +4.81 +8.19
HOME #315 Jackson State 78 51 +26.34 +0.66
NEUT #152 SMU 83 75 +13.35 -5.35
HOME #359 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.) 88 43 +33.52 +11.48
AWAY # 56 Utah 75 71 +1.67 +2.33
HOME #337 Central Arkansas 103 57 +28.62 +17.38
HOME # 33 Texas Tech 67 61 +5.04 +0.96
AWAY # 9 Baylor 88 87 -5.55 +6.55
HOME # 21 Iowa State 67 69 +3.55 -5.55
AWAY # 10 Texas 75 79 -5.52 +1.52
HOME # 30 Kansas State 82 68 +4.84 +9.16
AWAY # 32 West Virginia 65 74 -1.22 -7.78
AWAY # 5 Kansas 83 60 -6.26 +29.26
HOME # 51 Oklahoma 79 52 +7.35 +19.65
AWAY # 44 Mississippi State 74 81 -0.03 -6.97
HOME # 32 West Virginia 76 72 +4.94 -0.94
AWAY # 35 Oklahoma State 73 79 -1.08 -4.92
AWAY # 30 Kansas State 61 82 -1.32 -19.68
HOME # 9 Baylor 68 72 +0.61 -4.61
AWAY # 21 Iowa State 59 70 -2.61 -8.39
HOME # 35 Oklahoma State 100 75 +5.08 +19.92
HOME # 5 Kansas -0.10 0.497
AWAY # 33 Texas Tech -1.12 0.465
HOME # 10 Texas +0.64 0.521
AWAY # 51 Oklahoma +1.19 0.537
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, KMT, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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