Big 12 projection, Round 14

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 Rd12 Rd13 Rd14 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----
#  5  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.4 10  4
#  9  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3 12.7 12.0 12.2 10  4
#  8  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.4  9  5
# 23  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  9.9 10.4 10.0  8  6
# 31  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5 10.0  9.4  9.9  8  6
# 17  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  9.1  8.6  9.0  7  7
# 35  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  9.8  9.3  8.8  7  7
# 34  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  4.6  5.2  5.9  4 10
# 33  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  6.8  6.5  5.8  4 10
# 52  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  4.2  4.8  4.6  3 11
                     
Pred                 
Rank  Big XII Team   Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---------  --------------
#  5  Kansas         @TCU Mon   KU  74  TCU 74
#  9  Texas           ISU Tue   UT  69  ISU 65
#  8  Baylor         @KSU Tue
# 23  Iowa State     @UT  Tue
# 31  Kansas State    BU  Tue   KSU 75  BU  74
# 17  TCU             KU  Mon
# 35  Oklahoma State @WVU Mon
# 34  Texas Tech     @OU  Tue
# 33  West Virginia   OSU Mon   WVU 72  OSU 68
# 52  Oklahoma        TTU Tue   OU  69  TTU 66

I've got all the prognostications from Round 14, but I didn't copy over the program that simplifies
the compilation of the results to the portable devices I'm using while on travel, so I'll summarize
those results when I get back home.

No road wins were projected for Round 14, but one happened in Morgantown.  Just one road win
is projected for Round 15 (in Fort Worth), but that's really a toss-up.  We're still holding
right at the long-term road win rate of one in three games.

Road wins (23 out of 70)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
4 Baylor         WVU TTU OU  TCU             1 Iowa State     OSU                         +3 KU 
4 Kansas         TTU WVU OU  OSU             1 Kansas         TCU                         +3 UT 
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             1 Kansas State   UT                          +2 BU 
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Texas          KSU                         +1 ISU
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     +1 KSU
2 Oklahoma State OU  ISU                     2 Oklahoma State UT  KU                       0 OSU
2 TCU            BU  KU                      2 TCU            ISU BU                       0 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         4 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU             -3 TTU         
1 Texas Tech     WVU                         4 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT  TTU             -3 WVU
1 West Virginia  TTU                         5 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU KU          -4 OU 

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +1.74    Oklahoma State    8.79
Iowa State      +1.50    Kansas State      9.51
West Virginia   +1.33    Texas            10.53
Texas           +0.95    Baylor           10.71
Kansas          +0.61    Iowa State       11.16
TCU             +0.34    Kansas           11.57
Oklahoma State  -0.17    Texas Tech       11.88
Baylor          -0.25    Oklahoma         12.16
Oklahoma        -0.51    West Virginia    12.72
Texas Tech      -0.88    TCU              13.77

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.40 +/- 0.34    TCU             +0.21 +/- 0.21
Kansas          +0.22 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        +0.16 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  +0.08 +/- 0.22    Kansas          +0.14 +/- 0.27
Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.24    Kansas State    -0.08 +/- 0.19
Baylor          +0.01 +/- 0.27    West Virginia   -0.10 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        -0.04 +/- 0.31    Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.09 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  -0.20 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -0.12 +/- 0.30    Texas           -0.25 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.22 +/- 0.26    Baylor          -0.34 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.37 +/- 0.31    Texas Tech      -0.46 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           79.11   Iowa State      62.00   Texas           148.59   Texas            +9.63
Baylor          77.96   Oklahoma State  65.89   Baylor          148.19   TCU              +8.33
Kansas          76.59   TCU             67.70   West Virginia   147.04   Kansas           +7.89
TCU             76.04   Oklahoma        68.33   Kansas          145.30   Baylor           +7.74
West Virginia   75.81   Kansas State    68.52   TCU             143.74   Iowa State       +7.15
Kansas State    74.93   Kansas          68.70   Kansas State    143.44   Kansas State     +6.41
Texas Tech      73.48   Texas Tech      68.89   Texas Tech      142.37   Texas Tech       +4.59
Oklahoma State  69.37   Texas           69.48   Oklahoma        136.44   West Virginia    +4.59
Iowa State      69.15   Baylor          70.22   Oklahoma State  135.26   Oklahoma State   +3.48
Oklahoma        68.11   West Virginia   71.22   Iowa State      131.15   Oklahoma         -0.22

Everyone's in the Top 40 now, with half the Top 14 being in the Big 12.  Just a brutal conference.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.52 (  1)
Oklahoma        82.09 (  3)
Iowa State      81.67 (  4)
West Virginia   81.67 (  5)
Baylor          81.40 (  8)
Oklahoma State  80.61 ( 11)
Texas           80.38 ( 13)
Kansas State    79.55 ( 23)
TCU             79.44 ( 27)
Texas Tech      79.06 ( 37)