predictions for Baylor game

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BU      KU      Defensive Stats      BU      KU
Points/Game         78.8    76.6     Opp Points/Game     69.0    68.2
Avg Score Margin    +9.7    +8.3     Opp Effective FG %  50.9    47.1
Assists/Game        15.2    17.2     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.3     9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.6    36.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.0    24.9
Effective FG %      53.1    52.9     Blocks/Game          2.5     4.0
Off Rebound %       33.9    28.5     Steals/Game          7.0     9.0
FTA/FGA            0.377   0.296     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    17.0
Turnover %          14.9    15.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU              BU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.62           +0.06    
inconsistency         11.65           10.60    
trend                 +0.14 ± 0.31    +0.12 ± 0.28
mental toughness      +0.14 ± 0.27    -0.32 ± 0.19
average total pts      144.81         147.81    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, three of which Baylor has
played twice (TCU, West Virginia, Texas Tech), three of which Kansas has played
twice (Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State), and one of which both have played 
twice (Oklahoma), in which case I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations,
plus the head-to-head in Waco, giving us sixteen scores to compare:

KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)     KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
BU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)     BU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU   +4 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)     KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
BU   -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)     BU   +4 TCU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  -18 BU  at home (-22 neutral court)     KU  -31 BU  at home (-35 neutral court)

KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
BU   -2 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)     BU   -2 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +18 BU  at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
BU   +5 WVU on road ( +9 neutral court)     BU  +12 WVU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +14 BU  at home (+10 neutral court)

KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
BU  +16 OSU at home (+12 neutral court)     BU  +16 OSU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  -10 BU  at home (-14 neutral court)     KU   +7 BU  at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU   +7 TTU on road (+11 neutral court)     BU  +27 TTU at home (+23 neutral court)
KU    0 BU  at home ( -4 neutral court)     KU  =12 BU  at home (-16 neutral court)

KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)     KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
BU   +2 OU  on road ( +6 neutral court)     BU  +10 OU  at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU  +25 BU  at home (+21 neutral court)     KU   -2 BU  at home ( -6 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)
BU   -5 UT  on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +9 BU  at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +2 BU  at home ( -2 neutral court)

Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, and only five favor Baylor, with one being a
wash.  Ten to five is a little lopsided in favor of Kansas, but that TCU comparison
negates a lot of that, so the average is only 2.81 points in favor of Kansas, with
a scatter of 14.63 points.

those Iowa State (road) and TCU comparisons overwhelm the ones that favor the
Jayhawks, leading to an average of -1.62 points, with a scatter of 15.04 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Adam Flagler (guard)
most points        Keyonte George (guard)
most rebounds      Jalen Bridges (forward)
most assists       Adam Flagler (guard)
most steals        Dale Bonner (guard)
most blocks        Jalen Bridges (forward)
most turnovers     Keyonte George (guard)
most fouls         Flo Thamba (forward)

                                                          21-5           20-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.82   77   74       64       #  6   #  1    #  7   #  8
Sagarin Predictor       +3.19   77   74       61.3     # 10   #  1    #  9   #  8 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.05   78   73                #  4   #  1    #  6   #  8 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.95   77   74                #  5   #  1    #  7   #  8 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +6.04   79   72       71    
Massey                  +4.00   77   73       60       #  2   #  1    #  6   #  6
Pomeroy                 +3.97   77   73                #  7   #  1    # 10   #  7
Greenfield              +5.50   77   71.5     62.4     #  7   #  2    # 10   #  3
Dunkel                 +11.5    78   67                #  3           # 12
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +5.5    77   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +4.57   77   73       65.3     #  6   #  1    #  8   #  4
Real Time              +11.00   81   70       67.9     #  3   #  2    # 11   #  7 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   75   71       62       # 14   #  1    # 10   # 34
DPPI                                                   #  6   #  2    #      #    
ESPN BPI                +3.30                 62.2     # 10   #  1    #  8   #  8
Whitlock                +4.07                          #  5   #  1    #  9   #  5
Colley Matrix           +5.52                          #  2   #  1    # 12   #  6
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 12
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents        +2.81         
Massey composite                                       #  5           #  9
Pomeroy offense                                        # 19           #  1
Pomeroy defense                                        # 14           # 78
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 70           #214
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.11   77.5 72.0     64.0
scatter                  2.48    1.4  2.0      3.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #317 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.81    -3.81
HOME   #218 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.66    +0.34
NEUT   # 34 Duke                        69  64    +4.71    +0.29
HOME   #132 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.86   -11.86
NEUT   # 43 NC State                    80  74    +5.69    +0.31
NEUT   # 55 Wisconsin                   69  68    +7.18    -6.18
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.56   -11.44
HOME   #299 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.81    +4.19
HOME   # 50 Seton Hall                  91  65    +9.92   +16.08
AWAY   # 60 Missouri                    95  67    +4.48   +23.52
HOME   # 14 Indiana                     84  62    +4.71   +17.29
HOME   #173 Harvard                     68  54   +20.32    -6.32
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma State              69  67    +7.40    -5.40
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                  75  72    +2.02    +0.98
AWAY   # 27 West Virginia               76  62    +1.02   +12.98
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.22    -6.22
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                  62  60    +6.20    -4.20
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                82  83    +1.54    -2.54
HOME   # 24 TCU                         60  83    +6.31   -29.31
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      69  75    -2.96    -3.04
AWAY   # 31 Kentucky                    77  68    +1.45    +7.55
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                90  78    +7.70    +4.30
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                  53  68    +0.04   -15.04
HOME   #  8 Texas                       88  80    +3.09    +4.91
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.06   +18.94
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma State              87  76    +1.24    +9.76
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                +3.20             0.613
AWAY   # 24 TCU                                   +0.15             0.505
HOME   # 27 West Virginia                         +7.18             0.722
HOME   # 37 Texas Tech                            +8.18             0.756
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -3.07             0.392

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #359 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)     117  53   +35.82   +28.18
HOME   #202 Norfolk State               87  70   +22.00    -5.00
HOME   #231 Northern Colorado           95  62   +24.02    +8.98
NEUT   # 22 Virginia                    79  86    +3.00   -10.00
NEUT   #  4 UCLA                        80  75    -1.13    +6.13
HOME   #337 McNeese State               89  60   +30.90    -1.90
AWAY   # 19 Marquette                   70  96    -0.30   -25.70
NEUT   # 11 Gonzaga                     64  63    +0.28    +0.72
HOME   #198 Tarleton State              80  57   +21.68    +1.32
NEUT   # 69 Washington State            65  59    +8.34    -2.34
HOME   #226 Northwestern State          58  48   +23.19   -13.19
HOME   #246 Nicholls State              85  56   +24.73    +4.27
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                  62  77    -0.08   -14.92
HOME   # 24 TCU                         87  88    +6.19    -7.19
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                95  97    +7.58    -9.58
AWAY   # 27 West Virginia               83  78    +0.90    +4.10
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma State              74  58    +7.28    +8.72
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                  81  74    +1.90    +5.10
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma                    62  60    +3.94    -1.94
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      75  69    +2.96    +3.04
HOME   # 25 Arkansas                    67  64    +6.19    -3.19
AWAY   #  8 Texas                       71  76    -3.19    -1.81
HOME   # 37 Texas Tech                  89  62    +8.06   +18.94
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma                    82  72   +10.10    -0.10
AWAY   # 24 TCU                         72  68    +0.03    +3.97
HOME   # 27 West Virginia               79  67    +7.06    +4.94
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -3.20             0.387
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                          +1.42             0.556
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 +2.97             0.610
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma State                        +1.12             0.547
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +6.08             0.711