predictions for Oklahoma State game

Areas where Oklahoma State stands out:  they have Pomeroy's #5 ranked defense,
they are the most consistent team in the Big 12 by a wide margin, and they have
the most positive trend of any Big 12 team.  Add to that the historical
difficulty that Kansas has playing in Stillwater.  But the Cowboys do not score
a lot.  Their offense is anemic, second only to the Sooners, and the Kansas
defense is no slouch, ranking #11 per Poneroy.  So the expectation is for a
low-scoring affair.  Sagarin has it at 134 total points, or the high 60s for
both teams.

The prognosticators have it as a nail-biter.  Fourteen out of eighteen are
favoring Kansas, while three are favoring Oklahoma State, with Seven Overtimes
calling it a 69 to 69 wash.  The most pessimistic prediction comes from the
common opponents comparison, where the lopsided home loss to TCU and the poor
performance in Ames are hurting Kansas relative to Oklahoma State.  The
comparison favors the Cowboys by 1.6 points.  Don Davis' DPPI also favors
the Cowboys by 1.0, and ESPN's BPI has it the same way.  Give the BPI its due
respect.  It is just a tenth of a point per game behind Vegas in this season's
race for best prognosticator.  But Dunkel (worst of the prognosticators) is
picking Kansas by 10.5 points, and even Real Time has Kansas by a point despite
its enormous home court advantage.  The average favors Kansas by almost 1.7
points, but with a 2.8 point scatter.

Although their leading assist guy and leading ball thief has been missing
recent games with a wrist injury, Oklahoma State has played four out of five
games above expectation.  (Maybe that's because Anderson is also turnover and
foul prone.)  But the last time a key player was not expected to play for an
opponent, he played after all.  Perhaps it's all part of the strategy, to keep
the opposing team guessing.

The Big 12 race has tightened considerably thanks to Texas' unexpected loss in
Lubbock.  Kansas needs to win in Stillwater to keep pace with Baylor.

Just a heads-up:  there may be a hiatus in game prediction summaries, as I've
been alerted to a likely death in the family soon.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      OSU     KU      Defensive Stats      OSU     KU
Points/Game         69.2    76.2     Opp Points/Game     63.4    67.9
Avg Score Margin    +5.8    +8.2     Opp Effective FG %  43.8    46.7
Assists/Game        13.0    16.9     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.6     9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.0    36.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.2    25.2
Effective FG %      50.3    52.6     Blocks/Game          5.3     4.1
Off Rebound %       28.6    28.7     Steals/Game          6.0     9.0
FTA/FGA            0.321   0.300     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    16.8
Turnover %          18.0    15.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU              OSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.59           +0.20    
inconsistency         11.79            7.82    
trend                 +0.07 ± 0.33    +0.39 ± 0.21
mental toughness      +0.13 ± 0.28    -0.10 ± 0.17
average total pts      144.08         132.56    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which Oklahoma State has
played twice (Texas), one of which Kansas has played twice (Kansas State), and two
of which both have played twice (Oklahoma, Iowa State), in which case I'll use only
the home-home and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving
us thirteen scores to compare:

KU  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
OSU  +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)
OSU -10 UT  at home (-14 neutral court)     OSU -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral court)
KU  +14 OSU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)

KU   -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU  -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)     OSU  -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU   +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +8 OSU on road (+12 neutral court)

KU   -6 BU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
OSU -16 BU  on road (-12 neutral court)
KU   +6 OSU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  +23 OU  on road (+27 neutral court)
OSU +16 OU  at home (+12 neutral court)     OSU +10 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)
KU  -16 OSU on road (-12 neutral court)     KU   +9 OSU on road (+13 neutral court)

KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
OSU  +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)     OSU  +8 ISU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -4 OSU on road (  0 neutral court)     KU  -27 OSU on road (-23 neutral court)

KU  -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
OSU  +6 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU  -33 OSU on road (-29 neutral court)

KU   +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU  +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +4 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)

KU   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -6 OSU on road ( -2 neutral court)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, and only five favor Oklahoma State, but
those Iowa State (road) and TCU comparisons overwhelm the ones that favor the
Jayhawks, leading to an average of -1.62 points, with a scatter of 15.04 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Bryce Thompson (guard)
most points        Kalib Boone (forward)
most rebounds      Moussa Cisse (forward)
most assists       Avery Anderson III (guard)
most steals        Avery Anderson III (guard)
most blocks        Moussa Cisse (forward)
most turnovers     Avery Anderson III (guard)
most fouls         Avery Anderson III (guard)

Guard Avery Anderson has a wrist injury.  A date for his return has not been set.

                                                          20-5           16-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +0.84   67   67       53       #  6   #  1    # 22   # 17
Sagarin Predictor       +0.52   67   67       52.0     # 10   #  1    # 27   # 17 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.94   68   66                #  4   #  1    # 30   # 17 
Sagarin Recent Games    +0.61   67   67                #  5   #  1    # 20   # 17 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.26   70   64       69    
Massey                  +3.00   70   67       57       #  4   #  1    # 29   # 12
Pomeroy                 +0.25   68   67                #  9   #  1    # 27   # 11
Greenfield              +1.50   70   68.5     52.8     #  9   #  1    # 28   # 12
Dunkel                 +10.50   72   62                #  5           # 41
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.00   70   68                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +0.95   69   68       53.4     #  8   #  1    # 22   #  9
Real Time               +1.00   75   74       50.7     #  3   #  2    # 51   # 21 
Seven Overtimes          0.00   69   69       64       # 15   #  1    # 45   # 19
DPPI                    -1.10   69   70       46.7     #  6   #  2    # 28   # 11 
ESPN BPI                -1.00                 46.3     # 11   #  1    # 25   # 11
Whitlock                +0.52                          #  8   #  1    # 30   #  7
Colley Matrix           +4.50                          #  2   #  1    # 41   # 14
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 29
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents        -1.62         
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 25
Pomeroy offense                                        # 23           #120
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           #  5
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 65           #154
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +1.65   69.4 67.5     54.5
scatter                  2.84    2.2  2.8      7.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #322 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.91    -3.91
HOME   #227 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.95    +0.05
NEUT   # 31 Duke                        69  64    +3.95    +1.05
HOME   #134 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.69   -11.69
NEUT   # 44 NC State                    80  74    +5.23    +0.77
NEUT   # 56 Wisconsin                   69  68    +6.94    -5.94
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.41   -11.59
HOME   #301 Texas Southern              87  55   +27.54    +4.46
HOME   # 49 Seton Hall                  91  65    +9.18   +16.82
AWAY   # 52 Missouri                    95  67    +3.41   +24.59
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +4.28   +17.72
HOME   #176 Harvard                     68  54   +19.95    -5.95
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma State              69  67    +6.65    -4.65
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  75  72    +1.59    +1.41
AWAY   # 30 West Virginia               76  62    +0.86   +13.14
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma                    79  75   +10.36    -6.36
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                  62  60    +5.91    -3.91
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                82  83    +0.94    -1.94
HOME   # 21 TCU                         60  83    +5.66   -28.66
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      69  75    -3.32    -2.68
AWAY   # 34 Kentucky                    77  68    +1.36    +7.64
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                90  78    +7.08    +4.92
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                  53  68    -0.23   -14.77
HOME   #  7 Texas                       88  80    +2.62    +5.38
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma                    78  55    +4.22   +18.78
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma State                        +0.51             0.520
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                +2.82             0.599
AWAY   # 21 TCU                                   -0.48             0.485
HOME   # 30 West Virginia                         +7.00             0.715
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                            +7.73             0.742
AWAY   #  7 Texas                                 -3.52             0.377

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #250 UT Arlington                77  66   +21.01   -10.01
HOME   #127 Southern Illinois           60  61   +13.81   -14.81
AWAY   #266 Oakland-Mich.               91  62   +15.94   +13.06
NEUT   # 58 Central Florida(UCF)        56  60    +3.55    -7.55
NEUT   #126 DePaul                      82  78   +10.71    -6.71
HOME   #246 Tulsa                       82  56   +20.87    +5.13
HOME   #278 Prairie View A&M            78  53   +22.92    +2.08
AWAY   #  5 Connecticut                 64  74    -7.76    -2.24
HOME   # 90 Sam Houston State           65  51   +10.17    +3.83
NEUT   # 53 Virginia Tech               65  70    +2.96    -7.96
AWAY   #105 Wichita State               59  49    +5.54    +4.46
HOME   #224 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     81  58   +19.21    +3.79
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                      67  69    -6.65    +4.65
HOME   # 30 West Virginia               67  60    +3.42    +3.58
HOME   #  7 Texas                       46  56    -0.96    -9.04
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                57  65    -2.64    -5.36
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                      58  74    -6.90    -9.10
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma                    72  56    +6.78    +9.22
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                  61  59    +2.33    -0.33
AWAY   #  7 Texas                       75  89    -7.10    -6.90
HOME   # 95 Mississippi                 82  60   +10.82   +11.18
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma                    71  61    +0.64    +9.36
HOME   # 21 TCU                         79  73    +2.08    +3.92
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  71  68    +4.15    -1.15
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                  64  56    -3.81   +11.81
HOME   # 10 Kansas                                -0.51             0.480
AWAY   # 21 TCU                                   -4.06             0.356
AWAY   # 30 West Virginia                         -2.72             0.399
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                          +3.50             0.659
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                -0.76             0.468
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                            -1.99             0.422