Big 12 projection, Round 12

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 Rd12 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----
#  6  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3 12.7  9  3
#  9  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5  8  4
# 10  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.4  8  4
# 32  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5 10.0  7  5
# 24  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  9.9  7  5
# 28  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  9.8  7  5
# 21  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  9.1  6  6
# 30  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  6.8  4  8
# 41  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  4.6  2 10
# 61  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  4.2  2 10
                     
Pred                 
Rank  Big XII Team   Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---------  --------------
#  6  Texas          @TTU Mon   UT  76  TTU 70
#  9  Baylor          WVU Mon   BU  78  WVU 73
# 10  Kansas         @OSU Tue   KU  68  OSU 67
# 32  Kansas State   @OU  Tue   KSU 70  OU  68
# 24  Iowa State      TCU Wed   ISU 68  TCU 64
# 28  Oklahoma State  KU  Tue
# 21  TCU            @ISU Wed
# 30  West Virginia  @BU  Mon
# 41  Texas Tech      UT  Mon
# 61  Oklahoma        KSU Tue

Massey took honors for best prognostications in Round 12 with a total error of 66 points, which
means it wasn't a very good round for anybody, caused by the blowout wins in Austin and Norman.
Dunkel and Real Time pulled up the rear with a total error of 84 points.  Vegas now holds the
season lead with an average error of 8.7 points per game.  Dunkel is in the cellar with an average
error of 10.6 points per game.

Two road wins were projected for Round 12, but three happened, and one of those three was
not among the two expected ones.  Two or three road wins are projected for Round 13.  Why
the uncertainty?  Kansas at Oklahoma State is a toss-up.

Road wins (21 out of 60)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
4 Baylor         WVU TTU OU  TCU             1 Iowa State     OSU                         +3 UT 
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             1 Kansas         TCU                         +2 BU 
3 Kansas         TTU WVU OU                  1 Kansas State   UT                          +2 KU 
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 ISU
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      1 Texas          KSU                         +1 KSU
2 Oklahoma State OU  ISU                     2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     +1 OSU
2 TCU            BU  KU                      2 TCU            ISU BU                       0 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         3 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT                  -2 WVU         
1 West Virginia  TTU                         4 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU             -4 OU 
0 Texas Tech                                 5 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU KU          -4 TTU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +2.25    Oklahoma State    7.83
Iowa State      +1.54    Kansas State      9.23
West Virginia   +1.54    Baylor           10.69
Texas           +1.02    Texas            10.72
Kansas          +0.56    Iowa State       11.30
TCU             +0.39    Kansas           11.80
Oklahoma State  +0.20    Texas Tech       12.00
Baylor          +0.02    Oklahoma         12.10
Oklahoma        -0.65    West Virginia    12.88
Texas Tech      -0.98    TCU              13.47

Kansas is finally back to having a positive trend.  Unfortunately, our next opponent is now at
the top of the trend list.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma State  +0.38 +/- 0.21    TCU             +0.20 +/- 0.21
TCU             +0.36 +/- 0.37    Kansas          +0.13 +/- 0.28
Kansas State    +0.15 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma        +0.10 +/- 0.25
Baylor          +0.08 +/- 0.30    Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.33    West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.28
Texas           -0.08 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  -0.10 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.13 +/- 0.34    Iowa State      -0.16 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        -0.29 +/- 0.34    Texas           -0.22 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   -0.32 +/- 0.36    Baylor          -0.32 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -0.34 +/- 0.33    Texas Tech      -0.52 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           79.36   Iowa State      62.17   Texas           148.12   Texas           +10.60
Baylor          78.20   Oklahoma State  63.68   Baylor          147.88   Baylor           +8.52
West Virginia   76.32   TCU             67.32   West Virginia   146.96   TCU              +8.44
Kansas State    75.88   Oklahoma        67.80   Kansas State    144.52   Iowa State       +7.54
Kansas          75.76   Kansas          68.32   Kansas          144.08   Kansas           +7.44
TCU             75.76   Kansas State    68.64   TCU             143.08   Kansas State     +7.24
Texas Tech      73.28   Texas           68.76   Texas Tech      142.12   West Virginia    +5.68
Iowa State      69.71   Texas Tech      68.84   Oklahoma        134.88   Oklahoma State   +5.20
Oklahoma State  68.88   Baylor          69.68   Oklahoma State  132.56   Texas Tech       +4.44
Oklahoma        67.08   West Virginia   70.64   Iowa State      131.88   Oklahoma         -0.72

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.07 (  1)
Oklahoma        81.81 (  2)
Iowa State      81.33 (  4)
West Virginia   81.16 (  7)
Baylor          80.64 (  8)
Texas           80.24 ( 11)
Oklahoma State  79.74 ( 18)
Kansas State    79.20 ( 28)
TCU             78.88 ( 37)
Texas Tech      78.35 ( 42)