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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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1 year 9 months ago #30373
by asteroid
Another early tip. AARRGGHH!!
Recall that the last time we had an early tip, the Jayhawks sleep-walked their
way to a loss. And here we have another such road game. Let's hope the extra
hour makes a difference in the Jayhawks' energy level.
Oklahoma has the lowest scoring offense in the Big 12, yet the Sooners somehow
managed to score 93 points against the team with the #6 ranked defense in the
country, according to Pomeroy. Go figure. It's not like Oklahoma has been
particularly inconsistent; their inconsistency is only 0.36 points worse than
Kansas' inconsistency. Then again, their two least consistent games have come
in the last four games, which does make you wonder whether Kansas will be
facing Jekyll or Hyde today.
The prognosticators are uniformly picking Kansas in the game, anywhere from
just 1 point (Real Time and its enormous home court advantage) to 8.4 points
(Sagarin eigenvector analysis). The average of 18 prognostications is 3.8
points, with a scatter of 1.9 points.
Did I mention that I hate these early tips? Not much time for thoughtful
analysis with all the data in hand.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 68.0 76.1 Opp Points/Game 67.0 68.5
Avg Score Margin +1.0 +7.6 Opp Effective FG % 47.2 47.0
Assists/Game 13.3 16.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 5.7 9.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 32.4 37.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.1 25.2
Effective FG % 53.6 52.3 Blocks/Game 3.2 4.1
Off Rebound % 20.9 28.9 Steals/Game 5.4 8.7
FTA/FGA 0.285 0.303 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.0 17.0
Turnover % 17.8 15.3
My Stats Comparison KU OU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.12 -0.43
inconsistency 11.33 11.69
trend -0.12 ± 0.34 -0.13 ± 0.35
mental toughness +0.08 ± 0.27 +0.14 ± 0.25
average total pts 144.54 134.96
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, seven in conference (Oklahoma has yet to play
Kansas State) plus Seton Hall, three of which Oklahoma has played twice (West
Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor), and one of which Kansas has played twice
(Iowa State), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us thirteen scores to
compare:
KU +26 SH at home (+22 neutral court)
OU +14 SH neutral (+14 neutral court)
KU +4 OU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +8 UT at home ( +4 neutral court)
OU -1 UT at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU +5 OU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
OU -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court) OU -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +1 OU on road ( +5 neutral court) KU -8 OU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OU +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU -6 OU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court) KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
OU +1 WVU at home ( -3 neutral court) OU -32 WVU on road (-28 neutral court)
KU +17 OU on road (+21 neutral court) KU +38 OU on road (+42 neutral court)
KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OU -16 OSU on road (-12 neutral court) OU -10 OSU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU +6 OU on road (+10 neutral court) KU +8 OU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court)
OU -2 BU at home ( -6 neutral court) OU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU 0 OU oo road ( +4 neutral court) KU 0 OU on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
OU -27 TCU on road (-23 neutral court)
KU -8 OU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -4 OU on road ( -4 neutral court)
Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, four favor Oklahoma, and two are a wash.
The average favors Kansas by 4.08 points, but with a scatter of 12.38 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Grant Sherfield (guard)
most points Grant Sherfield (guard)
most rebounds Tanner Groves (forward)
most assists Grant Sherfield (guard)
most steals Otega Oweh (guard)
most blocks Tanner Groves (forward)
most turnovers Grant Sherfield (guard)
most fouls Tanner Groves (forward)
Reserve forward Yaya Keita is out following surgery, but hasn't scored this
season.
19-5 12-12
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +4.47 71 67 66 # 8 # 1 # 56 # 3
Sagarin Predictor +3.60 71 67 62.3 # 10 # 1 # 54 # 3
Sagarin Golden Mean +4.24 71 67 # 4 # 1 # 48 # 3
Sagarin Recent Games +5.21 71 66 # 9 # 1 # 64 # 3
Sagarin Eigenvector +8.41 73 65 77
Massey +3.00 72 69 60 # 4 # 1 # 53 # 3
Pomeroy +2.57 70 68 # 12 # 1 # 54 # 2
Greenfield +3.00 72 69 62.7 # 11 # 1 # 54 # 8
Dunkel +5.00 77 72 # 5 # 72
Vegas (via Dunkel) +3.50 72 69
Dolphin Predictive +3.21 71 68 61.3 # 14 # 1 # 57 # 7
Real Time +1.00 75 74 50.9 # 4 # 1 # 89 # 11
Seven Overtimes +2.00 71 69 77 # 15 # 1 #106 # 19
DPPI +2.00 71 69 55.4 # 10 # 2 # 63 # 5
ESPN BPI +2.50 59.7 # 13 # 1 # 51 # 2
Whitlock +3.66 # 8 # 1 # 58 # 2
Colley Matrix +7.58 # 5 # 1 # 76 # 3
NCAA NET # 9 # 65
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +4.08
Massey composite # 8 # 58
Pomeroy offense # 25 # 54
Pomeroy defense # 16 # 56
Pomeroy tempo # 86 #298
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +3.84 72.0 68.5 63.2
scatter 1.86 1.9 2.3 8.4
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #320 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +28.64 -3.64
HOME #223 North Dakota State 82 59 +22.67 +0.33
NEUT # 28 Duke 69 64 +3.36 +1.64
HOME #130 Southern Utah 82 76 +17.27 -11.27
NEUT # 47 NC State 80 74 +5.74 +0.26
NEUT # 52 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.56 -5.56
NEUT # 2 Tennessee 50 64 -3.14 -10.86
HOME #306 Texas Southern 87 55 +27.40 +4.60
HOME # 48 Seton Hall 91 65 +8.91 +17.09
AWAY # 58 Missouri 95 67 +3.88 +24.12
HOME # 13 Indiana 84 62 +3.88 +18.12
HOME #167 Harvard 68 54 +19.35 -5.35
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State 69 67 +6.70 -4.70
AWAY # 41 Texas Tech 75 72 +2.19 +0.81
AWAY # 25 West Virginia 76 62 -0.09 +14.09
HOME # 54 Oklahoma 79 75 +9.64 -5.64
HOME # 19 Iowa State 62 60 +5.18 -3.18
AWAY # 29 Kansas State 82 83 +0.42 -1.42
HOME # 21 TCU 60 83 +5.46 -28.46
AWAY # 9 Baylor 69 75 -3.05 -2.95
AWAY # 33 Kentucky 77 68 +0.80 +8.20
HOME # 29 Kansas State 90 78 +6.46 +5.54
AWAY # 19 Iowa State 53 68 -0.86 -14.14
HOME # 8 Texas 88 80 +2.86 +5.14
AWAY # 54 Oklahoma +3.60 0.623
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State +0.66 0.527
HOME # 9 Baylor +2.99 0.606
AWAY # 21 TCU -0.58 0.482
HOME # 25 West Virginia +5.95 0.697
HOME # 41 Texas Tech +8.23 0.760
AWAY # 8 Texas -3.18 0.380
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME # 94 Sam Houston State 51 52 +7.35 -8.35
HOME #332 Ark.-Pine Bluff 66 58 +23.65 -15.65
HOME #173 NC Wilmington 74 53 +13.02 +7.98
HOME #152 South Alabama 64 60 +12.21 -8.21
NEUT # 98 Nebraska 69 56 +4.90 +8.10
NEUT # 48 Seton Hall 77 64 -0.73 +13.73
NEUT # 93 Mississippi 59 55 +4.28 -0.28
AWAY # 51 Villanova 66 70 -3.12 -0.88
HOME #251 Kansas City(UMKC) 75 53 +17.91 +4.09
AWAY # 18 Arkansas 78 88 -7.49 -2.51
HOME #341 Central Arkansas 87 66 +24.36 -3.36
NEUT # 42 Florida 62 53 -1.40 +10.40
HOME # 8 Texas 69 70 -3.76 +2.76
HOME # 19 Iowa State 60 63 -1.44 -1.56
AWAY # 41 Texas Tech 68 63 -4.43 +9.43
AWAY # 10 Kansas 75 79 -9.64 +5.64
HOME # 25 West Virginia 77 76 -0.67 +1.67
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State 56 72 -5.96 -10.04
HOME # 9 Baylor 60 62 -3.63 +1.63
AWAY # 21 TCU 52 79 -7.20 -19.80
HOME # 3 Alabama 93 69 -6.58 +30.58
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State 61 71 +0.08 -10.08
AWAY # 25 West Virginia 61 93 -6.71 -25.29
AWAY # 9 Baylor 72 82 -9.67 -0.33
HOME # 10 Kansas -3.60 0.377
HOME # 29 Kansas State -0.16 0.494
AWAY # 8 Texas -9.80 0.179
HOME # 41 Texas Tech +1.61 0.554
AWAY # 19 Iowa State -7.48 0.256
AWAY # 29 Kansas State -6.20 0.279
HOME # 21 TCU -1.16 0.464
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- NotOstertag
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1 year 9 months ago #30374
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
As always, thanks for the in-depth analysis.
Aside from the KU game, I think the other two most interesting games will be Baylor at TCU and OSU at ISU. Of those, I think TCU has a very real chance of beating Baylor and pulling them a game back. I think ISU will likely win their game, but OSU are a handful and anything can happen. If KU wins and TCU and OSU win, that would cull the herd to a 3-team race with Texas (1st place) and both Kansas schools a game back.
Despite WVU's recent success, I think Texas will beat them in Austin. Even though KSU is on the road, Tech is the most vulnerable team in the league. While it's possible that Tech could beat the Wildcats in Lubbock, I think the grapes are too much for Tech today.
Aside from the KU game, I think the other two most interesting games will be Baylor at TCU and OSU at ISU. Of those, I think TCU has a very real chance of beating Baylor and pulling them a game back. I think ISU will likely win their game, but OSU are a handful and anything can happen. If KU wins and TCU and OSU win, that would cull the herd to a 3-team race with Texas (1st place) and both Kansas schools a game back.
Despite WVU's recent success, I think Texas will beat them in Austin. Even though KSU is on the road, Tech is the most vulnerable team in the league. While it's possible that Tech could beat the Wildcats in Lubbock, I think the grapes are too much for Tech today.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- konza63
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1 year 9 months ago #30375
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
As with TCU at K-State this past week, I don't think the Horned Frogs stand much of a chance against Baylor so long as Miles remains out. He's the spark plug that makes that engine run. The Wildcats, Bears and others caught a huge break that KU did not with him being out.
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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- LKF_HAWK
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1 year 9 months ago #30376
by LKF_HAWK
Just win! Hawks took care of business today.
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- HawkErrant
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- b82, g84 Lift the chorus...
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1 year 9 months ago #30378
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Like konza63, I do not see TCU stopping Baylor in Fort Worth without their stars Miles and C Lampkin. Just too big a hill to climb.
WVU didn't help us in Austin, so tu remains King of the HIll for another roumd, with KU hot in pursuit and BU (likely road win), ISU (likely home win) and KSU (at TT, always tough to win there) hoping to keep pace.
As LKF noted, just win and KU earns at least a share of another Big 12 title!
So there ya have it... don't worry about others and things you cannot control...
Just Win, Jayhawks!
WVU didn't help us in Austin, so tu remains King of the HIll for another roumd, with KU hot in pursuit and BU (likely road win), ISU (likely home win) and KSU (at TT, always tough to win there) hoping to keep pace.
As LKF noted, just win and KU earns at least a share of another Big 12 title!
So there ya have it... don't worry about others and things you cannot control...
Just Win, Jayhawks!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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1 year 9 months ago #30380
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
TCU is battling, though - only down 3 with under 3 to go. Fingers crossed…
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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1 year 9 months ago - 1 year 9 months ago #30381
by LKF_HAWK
TCU was up 8 and then stinking Bu goes bonkers…I really dislike them, and still question their success…in the Universe is trying to balance itself, Puke as a foul call at the end of regulation overturned and loses in OT.
Last Edit: 1 year 9 months ago by LKF_HAWK.
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- porthawk
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1 year 9 months ago #30382
by porthawk
But OSU just beat ISU so that's at least one outta two.
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1 year 9 months ago #30383
by LKF_HAWK
This league is bonkers! Stillwater is going to be a bear of a game on Tuesday.
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