Big 12 projection, Round 11

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd10 Rd11 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 12.3  8  3
# 10  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8 11.2 10.6 11.1  7  4
#  9  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.9  7  4
# 17  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4 10.6 11.1 10.7  7  4
# 30  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5 10.3  9.9 10.5  7  4
# 20  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.2  9.7  6  5
# 32  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  8.2  8.7  9.0  6  5
# 25  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  6.3  6.8  7.2  4  7
# 55  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  5.2  4.9  4.6  2  9
# 42  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  4.8  4.4  4.0  1 10
                     
Pred                 
Rank  Big XII Team   Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---------  --------------
#  8  Texas           WVU Sat   UT  78  WVU 74
# 10  Kansas         @OU  Sat   KU  70  OU  68
#  9  Baylor         @TCU Sat
# 17  Iowa State      OSU Sat   ISU 63  OSU 98
# 20  TCU             BU  Sat   TCU 76  BU  74
# 30  Kansas State   @TTU Sat   KSU 73  TTU 70
# 32  Oklahoma State @ISU Sat
# 25  West Virginia  @UT  Sat
# 55  Oklahoma        KU  Sat
# 42  Texas Tech      KSU Sat

For the first time since I started doing this, we had a three-way tie for best prognostications
in Round 11, with Greenfield, Vegas, and Real Time all checking in with a total error of just
25 points, or just 5.0 points per game.  My trend analysis pulled up the rear with a total error
of 45.0 points.  Greenfield has taken over the season lead from Seven Overtimes, who is now tied
for second with Vegas, with an average error of 8.2 points per game.  Dunkel is still pulling up
the rear with an average error of 10.0 points per game.

No road wins were projected for Round 11, and none happened.  As a result, we're now down to
the long-term average of one road win in every three games.  Two road wins are projected for
Round 12, with the two Kansas schools favored in their respective games (at Oklahoma for the
Jayahaks and at Texas Tech for the Wildcats).

Road wins (18 out of 55)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
4 Texas          OU  OSU WVU KSU             0 Iowa State                                 +3 UT 
3 Baylor         WVU TTU OU                  1 Kansas         TCU                         +2 ISU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Kansas State   UT                          +1 BU 
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 KU 
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      1 TCU            ISU                         +1 KSU
2 TCU            BU  KU                      1 Texas          KSU                         +1 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         2 Baylor         TCU KSU                      0 OSU
1 Oklahoma State OU                          3 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT                  -2 WVU         
1 West Virginia  TTU                         4 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU  OSU             -3 OU 
0 Texas Tech                                 4 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU             -4 TTU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +2.20    Oklahoma State    7.80
West Virginia   +2.01    Kansas State      9.43
Iowa State      +1.50    Texas             9.55
Texas           +0.82    Baylor           10.82
TCU             +0.32    Iowa State       11.21
Kansas          +0.18    Kansas           11.30
Baylor          +0.01    Oklahoma         11.66
Oklahoma State  -0.01    West Virginia    11.76
Oklahoma        -0.42    Texas Tech       12.06
Texas Tech      -0.91    TCU              13.71

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.47 +/- 0.40    TCU             +0.22 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  +0.32 +/- 0.22    Oklahoma        +0.13 +/- 0.25
Kansas State    +0.23 +/- 0.28    West Virginia   +0.09 +/- 0.26
Baylor          +0.06 +/- 0.33    Kansas          +0.07 +/- 0.27
Iowa State      +0.02 +/- 0.36    Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   -0.04 +/- 0.35    Iowa State      -0.15 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.12 +/- 0.34    Oklahoma State  -0.17 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        -0.13 +/- 0.35    Texas           -0.25 +/- 0.17
Texas           -0.37 +/- 0.28    Baylor          -0.34 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -0.45 +/- 0.35    Texas Tech      -0.53 +/- 0.18

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           78.83   Iowa State      62.00   Baylor          148.21   Texas            +9.79
Baylor          78.38   Oklahoma State  64.08   Texas           147.88   TCU              +9.12
West Virginia   76.92   TCU             67.04   West Virginia   146.67   Baylor           +8.54
Kansas State    76.33   Oklahoma        67.29   Kansas State    144.96   Iowa State       +8.39
TCU             76.17   Kansas State    68.62   Kansas          144.54   Kansas State     +7.71
Kansas          75.58   Kansas          68.96   TCU             143.21   West Virginia    +7.17
Texas Tech      73.46   Texas Tech      69.00   Texas Tech      142.46   Kansas           +6.62
Iowa State      70.39   Texas           69.04   Oklahoma        134.96   Oklahoma State   +4.92
Oklahoma State  69.00   West Virginia   69.75   Oklahoma State  133.08   Texas Tech       +4.46
Oklahoma        67.67   Baylor          69.83   Iowa State      132.39   Oklahoma         +0.38

The Big 12 holds six of the top ten strengths of schedule (the Big Ten has the other four).

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          82.16 (  1)
Oklahoma        81.55 (  3)
Iowa State      81.02 (  6)
West Virginia   80.69 (  7)
Texas           80.27 (  8)
Baylor          80.24 (  9)
Oklahoma State  79.38 ( 20)
Kansas State    78.86 ( 32)
TCU             78.59 ( 36)
Texas Tech      78.24 ( 41)