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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas game
- asteroid
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1 year 9 months ago #30322
by asteroid
The good news is that we still have two games to play against Texas and have those
opportunities to cut into their lead in the race for the conference championship.
The bad news is that we still have two games to play against Texas. The first
will be with a depleted roster (add Clemence to the list of unavailable players),
while the second will be on the road. Not the greatest recipe for success.
The various prognosticators are all favoring the Jayhawks in today's Big Monday
contest. Real Time, with its enormous home court advantage, is the most optimistic
with an 11 point margin, while ESPN's BPI is the most pessimistic, with just a 1.5
point margin. Actually, the common opponents comparison, which isn't an actual
prognosticator, checks in with just a 1.25 point margin for Kansas. The average
is 3.8 points in favor of Kansas, with a 2.4 point scatter.
The law of averages suggests that Texas will play above expectation only three
more times in the remainder of the regular season, leaving five games for below
expectation performances, including a couple of double-digit below-expection
games. I'd like to see one of those reserved for the final game of the regular
season against Kansas in Austin.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UT KU Defensive Stats UT KU
Points/Game 79.4 75.6 Opp Points/Game 67.6 68.0
Avg Score Margin +11.8 +7.6 Opp Effective FG % 48.2 46.8
Assists/Game 16.6 16.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.0 9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.0 36.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.6 25.2
Effective FG % 53.8 52.4 Blocks/Game 4.0 4.2
Off Rebound % 29.0 28.6 Steals/Game 8.0 8.7
FTA/FGA 0.318 0.297 Personal Fouls/Gm 18.0 17.0
Turnover % 14.8 15.5
My Stats Comparison KU UT
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.12 +0.84
inconsistency 11.48 9.70
trend -0.19 ± 0.37 -0.34 ± 0.30
mental toughness +0.06 ± 0.27 -0.23 ± 0.17
average total pts 143.52 147.00
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus Tennessee, one of
which Texas has played twice (Oklahoma State), one of which Kansas has played
twice (Iowa State), and one of which both have played twice (Kansas State) for
which I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations), giving us twelve
scores to compare:
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
UT +1 OU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU -1 UT at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court) KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
UT -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court) UT +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +29 UT at home (+25 neutral court) KU 0 UT at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral court) UT +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU -12 UT at home (-16 neutral court) KU -8 UT at home (-12 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
UT +4 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -23 UT at home (-27 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT +2 TTU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +13 UT at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court) KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
UT -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court) UT -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU 0 UT at home ( -4 neutral court) KU +9 UT at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
UT +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU +10 UT at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU -14 Ten neutral (-14 neutral court)
UT -11 Ten on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU -3 UT at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court)
UT +5 BU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU +1 UT at home ( -3 neutral court)
Five of the comparisons favor Kansas, five favor Texas, and two are a wash.
The average favors Kansas by 1.25 points, but with a scatter of 13.21 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Marcus Carr (guard)
most points Marcus Carr (guard)
most rebounds Timmy Allen (forward)
most assists Marcus Carr (guard)
most steals Marcus Carr (guard)
most blocks Dylan Disu (forward)
most turnovers Timmy Allen (forward)
most fouls Timmy Allen (forward)
18-5 19-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +2.63 76 73 60 # 9 # 1 # 8 # 15
Sagarin Predictor +2.33 76 73 58.7 # 10 # 1 # 8 # 15
Sagarin Golden Mean +3.62 76 73 # 6 # 1 # 8 # 15
Sagarin Recent Games +2.20 76 73 # 13 # 1 # 10 # 15
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.02 76 72 65
Massey +4.00 74 70 64 # 5 # 1 # 7 # 9
Pomeroy +2.60 75 72 # 11 # 1 # 9 # 19
Greenfield +4.00 75 71 57.9 # 11 # 1 # 7 # 5
Dunkel +8.50 75 67 # 6 # 8
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.00 75 71
Dolphin Predictive +3.62 75 71 62.4 # 16 # 1 # 6 # 3
Real Time +11.00 79 68 73.0 # 5 # 1 # 6 # 19
Seven Overtimes +3.00 74 71 61 # 21 # 1 # 22 # 39
DPPI +2.40 74 72 56.8 # 12 # 2 # 9 # 13
ESPN BPI +1.50 55.5 # 13 # 1 # 6 # 17
Whitlock +3.92 # 7 # 1 # 10 # 15
Colley Matrix +3.49 # 5 # 1 # 6 # 17
NCAA NET # 10 # 8
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +1.25
Massey composite # 5 # 8
Pomeroy offense # 27 # 13
Pomeroy defense # 17 # 27
Pomeroy tempo # 98 # 94
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +3.78 75.4 71.2 61.4
scatter 2.38 1.3 1.9 5.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #315 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +27.88 -2.88
HOME #234 North Dakota State 82 59 +23.25 -0.25
NEUT # 27 Duke 69 64 +3.00 +2.00
HOME #131 Southern Utah 82 76 +17.15 -11.15
NEUT # 47 NC State 80 74 +5.68 +0.32
NEUT # 59 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.75 -5.75
NEUT # 2 Tennessee 50 64 -4.00 -10.00
HOME #299 Texas Southern 87 55 +27.09 +4.91
HOME # 46 Seton Hall 91 65 +8.40 +17.60
AWAY # 57 Missouri 95 67 +3.59 +24.41
HOME # 15 Indiana 84 62 +3.90 +18.10
HOME #170 Harvard 68 54 +19.25 -5.25
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State 69 67 +6.30 -4.30
AWAY # 42 Texas Tech 75 72 +2.06 +0.94
AWAY # 25 West Virginia 76 62 -0.36 +14.36
HOME # 52 Oklahoma 79 75 +9.23 -5.23
HOME # 18 Iowa State 62 60 +4.87 -2.87
AWAY # 33 Kansas State 82 83 +0.80 -1.80
HOME # 17 TCU 60 83 +4.72 -27.72
AWAY # 9 Baylor 69 75 -3.13 -2.87
AWAY # 28 Kentucky 77 68 +0.08 +8.92
HOME # 33 Kansas State 90 78 +6.70 +5.30
AWAY # 18 Iowa State 53 68 -1.03 -13.97
HOME # 8 Texas +2.33 0.587
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma +3.33 0.612
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State +0.40 0.516
HOME # 9 Baylor +2.77 0.597
AWAY # 17 TCU -1.18 0.462
HOME # 25 West Virginia +5.54 0.681
HOME # 42 Texas Tech +7.96 0.748
AWAY # 8 Texas -3.57 0.368
Here is Texas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #157 UTEP 72 57 +19.41 -4.41
HOME #357 Houston Christian 82 31 +34.83 +16.17
HOME # 11 Gonzaga 93 74 +3.87 +15.13
NEUT #264 Northern Arizona 73 48 +23.02 +1.98
HOME #277 UTRGV 91 54 +26.41 +10.59
HOME # 14 Creighton 72 67 +4.49 +0.51
NEUT # 16 Illinois 78 85 +1.63 -8.63
HOME #331 Ark.-Pine Bluff 88 43 +30.63 +14.37
HOME #167 Rice 87 81 +19.67 -13.67
NEUT # 79 Stanford 72 62 +10.16 -0.16
HOME #104 Louisiana 100 72 +15.25 +12.75
HOME #336 Texas A&M-Commerce 97 72 +30.92 -5.92
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma 70 69 +3.95 -2.95
HOME # 33 Kansas State 103 116 +7.32 -20.32
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma State 56 46 +1.02 +8.98
HOME # 17 TCU 79 75 +5.34 -1.34
HOME # 42 Texas Tech 72 70 +8.58 -6.58
AWAY # 18 Iowa State 67 78 -0.41 -10.59
AWAY # 25 West Virginia 69 61 +0.26 +7.74
HOME # 31 Oklahoma State 89 75 +6.92 +7.08
AWAY # 2 Tennessee 71 82 -6.33 -4.67
HOME # 9 Baylor 76 71 +3.39 +1.61
AWAY # 33 Kansas State 69 66 +1.42 +1.58
AWAY # 10 Kansas -2.33 0.413
HOME # 25 West Virginia +6.16 0.714
AWAY # 42 Texas Tech +2.68 0.595
HOME # 52 Oklahoma +9.85 0.818
HOME # 18 Iowa State +5.49 0.698
AWAY # 9 Baylor -2.51 0.405
AWAY # 17 TCU -0.56 0.481
HOME # 10 Kansas +3.57 0.632
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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