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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
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1 year 9 months ago #30307
by asteroid
I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS!!!
Key points: Iowa State is unbeaten at home this season. Iowa State has
played four consecutive games below expectation; the law of averages will
catch up to them sooner or later. Then again, prior to that streak, the
Cyclones played six consecutive games above expectation, so they appear
to be streaky. How long will their current below-expectation streak last?
The common opponents comparison is not favorable for Kansas.
Still, the numbers suggest that it should be a toss-up game. The various
prognosticators are split on the outcome, with Vegas favoring the Jayhawks.
The average favors the Jayhawks by 0.4 points, though with a scatter of
3.4 points.
Did I mention that I hate these early tips? No more time for analysis.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats ISU KU Defensive Stats ISU KU
Points/Game 70.9 76.6 Opp Points/Game 61.4 68.0
Avg Score Margin +9.5 +8.6 Opp Effective FG % 48.7 46.5
Assists/Game 15.3 17.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.2 9.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.8 37.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 20.7 25.1
Effective FG % 52.1 52.6 Blocks/Game 3.2 4.2
Off Rebound % 33.1 29.0 Steals/Game 9.4 8.9
FTA/FGA 0.264 0.294 Personal Fouls/Gm 18.8 17.0
Turnover % 16.5 15.0
My Stats Comparison KU ISU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.53 +1.79
inconsistency 11.22 11.40
trend -0.06 ± 0.39 -0.10 ± 0.42
mental toughness +0.10 ± 0.28 -0.18 ± 0.21
average total pts 144.55 132.24
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, six in conference plus Missouri, one of
which Iowa State has played twice (Texas Tech) and one of which Kansas
has played twice (Kansas State), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving
us ten scores to compare:
KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court)
ISU +15 BU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
ISU +3 OU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU -11 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
ISU +2 TCU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU -37 ISU on road (-33 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
ISU +34 TTU at home (+30 neutral court) ISU -3 TTU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -27 ISU on road (-23 neutral court) KU +2 ISU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
ISU -2 OSU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU -8 ISU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court) KU +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
ISU +4 KSU at home ( 0 neutral court) ISU +4 KSU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -1 ISU on road ( +3 neutral court) KU +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +28 MU on road (+32 neutral court)
ISU -17 MU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU +41 ISU on road (+45 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU -6 ISU on road ( -2 neutral court)
Seven of the ten comparisons favor Iowa State, while only three favor Kansas.
Two are lopsidedly in favor on Iowa State (TCU and Texas Tech home game),
while one is lopsidedly in favor of Kansas (Missouri). The average is 6.00
points in favor of Iowa State, with a whopping scatter of 20.95 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Gabe Kalscheur (guard)
most points Jaren Holmes (guard)
most rebounds Aljaz Kunc (forward)
most assists Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most steals Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks Osun Osunniyi (forward)
most turnovers Jaren Holmes (guard)
most fouls Tre King (forward)
Forward Aljaz Kunc has a fractured finger and is likely out for another couple
of weeks.
18-4 15-6
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +0.91 69 68 53 # 6 # 1 # 24 # 8
Sagarin Predictor -0.14 68 68 49.5 # 9 # 1 # 22 # 8
Sagarin Golden Mean +1.81 69 67 # 3 # 1 # 24 # 8
Sagarin Recent Games +1.22 69 68 # 6 # 1 # 28 # 8
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.21 70.5 66 65
Massey +3.00 69 66 58 # 3 # 1 # 17 # 6
Pomeroy -0.51 65 66 # 9 # 1 # 18 # 13
Greenfield +1.50 69 68 47.4 # 9 # 1 # 20 # 4
Dunkel +8.50 79 71 # 3 # 22
Vegas (via Dunkel) +1.50 69 67
Dolphin Predictive -0.76 65 66 47.2 # 11 # 1 # 15 # 4
Real Time -5.00 72 77 37.9 # 3 # 2 # 33 # 48
Seven Overtimes -1.00 69 70 62 # 10 # 1 # 44 # 32
DPPI -2.80 68 70.5 42.3 # 10 # 1 # 21 # 20
ESPN BPI -2.10 41.9 # 10 # 1 # 20 # 8
Whitlock -0.35 # 7 # 1 # 18 # 17
Colley Matrix +3.24 # 3 # 1 # 31 # 30
NCAA NET # 7 # 15
LRMC # # # #
common opponents -6.00
Massey composite # 5 # 16
Pomeroy offense # 19 # 65
Pomeroy defense # 16 # 11
Pomeroy tempo # 97 #315
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +0.40 69.3 68.5 50.4
scatter 3.36 3.3 3.0 9.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #309 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +27.84 -2.84
HOME #238 North Dakota State 82 59 +23.65 -0.65
NEUT # 25 Duke 69 64 +3.27 +1.73
HOME #124 Southern Utah 82 76 +17.01 -11.01
NEUT # 46 NC State 80 74 +5.89 +0.11
NEUT # 56 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.93 -5.93
NEUT # 1 Tennessee 50 64 -3.88 -10.12
HOME #289 Texas Southern 87 55 +26.87 +5.13
HOME # 42 Seton Hall 91 65 +8.42 +17.58
AWAY # 54 Missouri 95 67 +3.67 +24.33
HOME # 15 Indiana 84 62 +4.38 +17.62
HOME #152 Harvard 68 54 +18.77 -4.77
HOME # 32 Oklahoma State 69 67 +6.78 -4.78
AWAY # 37 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.91 +1.09
AWAY # 31 West Virginia 76 62 +0.83 +13.17
HOME # 48 Oklahoma 79 75 +9.00 -5.00
HOME # 22 Iowa State 62 60 +5.67 -3.67
AWAY # 34 Kansas State 82 83 +1.28 -2.28
HOME # 17 TCU 60 83 +4.69 -27.69
AWAY # 11 Baylor 69 75 -2.30 -3.70
AWAY # 29 Kentucky 77 68 +0.58 +8.42
HOME # 34 Kansas State 90 78 +7.08 +4.92
AWAY # 22 Iowa State -0.13 0.495
HOME # 8 Texas +2.67 0.600
AWAY # 48 Oklahoma +3.20 0.614
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma State +0.98 0.540
HOME # 11 Baylor +3.50 0.627
AWAY # 17 TCU -1.11 0.465
HOME # 31 West Virginia +6.63 0.724
HOME # 37 Texas Tech +7.71 0.745
AWAY # 8 Texas -3.13 0.383
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #359 IUPUI 88 39 +33.12 +15.88
HOME #290 NC A&T 80 43 +24.17 +12.83
HOME #215 Milwaukee 68 53 +19.65 -4.65
NEUT # 57 Villanova 81 79 +4.21 -2.21
NEUT # 26 North Carolina 70 65 +0.62 +4.38
NEUT # 5 Connecticut 53 71 -3.76 -14.24
HOME #327 North Dakota 63 44 +26.74 -7.74
HOME # 76 St. John's 71 60 +9.57 +1.43
AWAY # 21 Iowa 56 75 -2.95 -16.05
HOME #338 McNeese State 77 40 +27.91 +9.09
HOME #274 Western Michigan 73 57 +23.03 -7.03
HOME # 11 Baylor 77 62 +0.73 +14.27
AWAY # 48 Oklahoma 63 60 +0.43 +2.57
AWAY # 17 TCU 69 67 -3.88 +5.88
HOME # 37 Texas Tech 84 50 +4.94 +29.06
AWAY # 9 Kansas 60 62 -5.67 +3.67
HOME # 8 Texas 78 67 -0.10 +11.10
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma State 59 61 -1.79 -0.21
HOME # 34 Kansas State 80 76 +4.31 -0.31
AWAY # 54 Missouri 61 78 +0.90 -17.90
AWAY # 37 Texas Tech 77 80 -0.86 -2.14
HOME # 9 Kansas +0.13 0.505
AWAY # 31 West Virginia -1.94 0.432
HOME # 32 Oklahoma State +4.01 0.657
HOME # 17 TCU +1.92 0.560
AWAY # 34 Kansas State -1.49 0.442
AWAY # 8 Texas -5.90 0.289
HOME # 48 Oklahoma +6.23 0.712
HOME # 31 West Virginia +3.86 0.634
AWAY # 11 Baylor -5.07 0.321
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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