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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Kansas State game
- asteroid
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1 year 9 months ago #30267
by asteroid
Our next three opponents were all 6-2 in the conference heading into Round 9,
so these three games will go a long way toward determining the conference
championship. Fortunately, two of them are at home. But after the third,
the next game is on the road against a team that just destroyed the #2 ranked
team in all of Division I. Welcome to the Big 12.
The good news is that every prognosticator is picking the Jayhawks. Real Time,
with its enormous home court advantage, is the most optimistic, giving Kansas
a 15 point margin. That would be comfortable. Dunkel is next with 10.5 points.
The most pessimistic is the common opponents comparison, which checks in at just
2 points. The trend analysis says 3 points. The average of 18 predictions is
5.5 points, with a scatter of 3.3 points.
Kansas State has played above expectation for four consecutive games. It's
time for the law of averages to catch up with them, as it did for Kentucky.
Kansas ended a five-game below-expectation streak with the win in Lexington,
but it was costly, in that we lost Ejiofor for at least a few games, and
McCullar will probably be gimpy at best (but hey, it worked out for Mahomes).
I've not read anything about his availability for the game.
Interesting that none of the computer rankings have Kansas State nearly as
high as the AP and Coaches polls, in which the Wildcats are actually ranked
higher than the Jayhawks as of this past Monday (Week 13).
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats KSU KU Defensive Stats KSU KU
Points/Game 77.1 76.0 Opp Points/Game 67.3 67.5
Avg Score Margin +9.9 +8.5 Opp Effective FG % 46.8 46.9
Assists/Game 17.7 17.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.3 9.3
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.8 36.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.3 24.9
Effective FG % 52.4 52.8 Blocks/Game 2.9 4.0
Off Rebound % 30.6 29.2 Steals/Game 7.9 8.9
FTA/FGA 0.368 0.281 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.3 16.7
Turnover % 16.7 15.3
My Stats Comparison KU KSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.62 +2.29
inconsistency 11.36 9.01
trend -0.13 ± 0.42 +0.27 ± 0.33
mental toughness +0.09 ± 0.28 -0.04 ± 0.21
average total pts 143.43 144.43
Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, all in conference, plus the head-to-head
in Manhattan, giving us seven scores to compare:
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
KSU +6 WVU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +20 KSU at home (+16 neutral court)
KU -6 BU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +2 BU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU -4 KSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +8 OSU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -2 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
KSU -14 TCU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU -13 KSU at home (-17 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU +10 TTU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +5 KSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KSU -4 ISU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU +7 KSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
Thet's an avergae of +2.14 points, with a scatter of 10.29 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Markquis Nowell (guard)
most points Keyontae Johnson (forward)
most rebounds Keyontae Johnson (forward)
most assists Markquis Nowell (guard)
most steals Markquis Nowell (guard)
most blocks Nae'Qwan Tomlin (forward)
most turnovers Keyontae Johnson (forward)
most fouls Nae'Qwan Tomlin (forward)
17-4 18-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kansas State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +5.82 73 67 70 # 6 # 1 # 22 # 50
Sagarin Predictor +6.68 73 67 74.2 # 9 # 1 # 33 # 50
Sagarin Golden Mean +7.65 74 66 # 4 # 1 # 24 # 50
Sagarin Recent Games +4.24 72 68 # 9 # 1 # 18 # 50
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.65 72 68 67
Massey +8.00 77 69 74 # 3 # 1 # 11 # 22
Pomeroy +5.77 74 69 # 9 # 1 # 25 # 39
Greenfield +7.00 77 70 73.3 # 9 # 1 # 30 # 35
Dunkel +10.50 76 66 # 4 # 12
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.00 77 70
Dolphin Predictive +6.79 76 69 72.3 # 12 # 1 # 17 # 26
Real Time +15.00 81 66 81.1 # 4 # 2 # 8 # 52
Seven Overtimes +4.00 74 70 74 # 17 # 2 # 40 # 17
DPPI +5.50 75 69 66.6 # 10 # 1 # 24 # 45
ESPN BPI +7.40 75.3 # 10 # 1 # 34 # 48
Whitlock +5.03 # 7 # 1 # 14 # 30
Colley Matrix +3.94 # 4 # 1 # 9 # 48
NCAA NET # 8 # 16
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +2.14
Massey composite # 5 # 15
Pomeroy offense # 21 # 36
Pomeroy defense # 16 # 27
Pomeroy tempo #117 # 88
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +5.53 74.0 68.3 72.7
scatter 3.34 3.2 1.5 4.5
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #314 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +27.83 -2.83
HOME #229 North Dakota State 82 59 +22.95 +0.05
NEUT # 24 Duke 69 64 +2.77 +2.23
HOME #124 Southern Utah 82 76 +16.56 -10.56
NEUT # 51 NC State 80 74 +6.17 -0.17
NEUT # 58 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.88 -5.88
NEUT # 1 Tennessee 50 64 -4.50 -9.50
HOME #289 Texas Southern 87 55 +26.66 +5.34
HOME # 45 Seton Hall 91 65 +8.44 +17.56
AWAY # 53 Missouri 95 67 +3.58 +24.42
HOME # 14 Indiana 84 62 +3.90 +18.10
HOME #145 Harvard 68 54 +17.98 -3.98
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 69 67 +6.77 -4.77
AWAY # 36 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.69 +1.31
AWAY # 30 West Virginia 76 62 +0.72 +13.28
HOME # 43 Oklahoma 79 75 +8.15 -4.15
HOME # 21 Iowa State 62 60 +5.23 -3.23
AWAY # 33 Kansas State 82 83 +0.95 -1.95
HOME # 16 TCU 60 83 +4.37 -27.37
AWAY # 11 Baylor 69 75 -2.59 -3.41
AWAY # 28 Kentucky 77 68 +0.57 +8.43
HOME # 33 Kansas State +6.67 0.742
AWAY # 21 Iowa State -0.49 0.483
HOME # 7 Texas +2.34 0.587
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma +2.43 0.587
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State +1.05 0.542
HOME # 11 Baylor +3.13 0.612
AWAY # 16 TCU -1.35 0.458
HOME # 30 West Virginia +6.44 0.715
HOME # 36 Texas Tech +7.41 0.734
AWAY # 7 Texas -3.38 0.376
Here is Kansas State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #287 UTRGV 93 59 +22.70 +11.30
AWAY #197 California 63 54 +11.68 -2.68
HOME #247 Kansas City(UMKC) 69 53 +20.32 -4.32
NEUT #192 Rhode Island 77 57 +14.07 +5.93
NEUT # 71 Nevada 96 87 +4.53 +4.47
NEUT #104 LSU 61 59 +7.81 -5.81
AWAY # 95 Butler 64 76 +4.33 -16.33
HOME #105 Wichita State 55 50 +11.35 -6.35
HOME #208 Abilene Christian 81 64 +17.94 -0.94
HOME #350 Incarnate Word 98 50 +28.88 +19.12
HOME #102 Nebraska 71 56 +10.52 +4.48
HOME #175 Radford 73 65 +15.63 -7.63
HOME # 30 West Virginia 82 76 +2.63 +3.37
AWAY # 7 Texas 116 103 -7.19 +20.19
AWAY # 11 Baylor 97 95 -6.40 +8.40
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 65 57 +2.96 +5.04
AWAY # 16 TCU 68 82 -5.16 -8.84
HOME # 9 Kansas 83 82 -0.95 +1.95
HOME # 36 Texas Tech 68 58 +3.60 +6.40
AWAY # 21 Iowa State 76 80 -4.30 +0.30
HOME # 38 Florida 64 50 +4.00 +10.00
AWAY # 9 Kansas -6.67 0.258
HOME # 7 Texas -1.47 0.438
HOME # 16 TCU +0.56 0.519
AWAY # 36 Texas Tech -2.12 0.422
AWAY # 43 Oklahoma -1.38 0.445
HOME # 21 Iowa State +1.42 0.554
HOME # 11 Baylor -0.68 0.472
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State -2.76 0.374
HOME # 43 Oklahoma +4.34 0.669
AWAY # 30 West Virginia -3.09 0.382
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, USAF Jayhawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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