predictions for Kentucky game

This may be unprecedented.  The difference between the Sagarin Predictor
ratings for Kansas and Kentucky, after accounting for the stated home
court advantage, is 0.00.  The other prognosticators are pretty evenly
split over this game.  Real Time, with its enormous home court advantage,
favors Kentucky by 7.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis favors Kansas by
almost 5.  Those are the extremes.  Although the common opponents
comparison favors Kansas, the scatter is so enormous that the result
has no statistical significance to it.  We destroyed a Missouri squad
that an easy time beating Kentucky.  But Kentucky destroyed a Tennessee
team that handed the Jayhawks a significant loss in the Bahamas.  The
Pomeroy offense ratings are virtually identical, though Kansas has a bit
of an edge in defense.  Trend values are nearly the same, right down to
the plus and minus values.  Kansas has a slight edge in the mental
toughness statistic.  On a neutral court, Kansas would likely be a
fairly consistent favorite in the game, but by virtue of the game being
in Rupp Arena, it's a wash.

Kansas has one additional day of rest, having played on Monday, whereas
Kentucky played on Tuesday.  Considering how tired some fans felt the
Jayhawks looked on Monday, the extra rest may be just what the doctor
ordered to recharge their batteries.

Kentucky has played four consecutive games above expectation, whereas
Kansas has played five consecutive games below expectation, including
a real stinker against TCU.  Maybe the law of averages will work out
in the Jayhawks' favor today and the tables will be turned.  At least
Self has plenty of experience with how to handle Tshiebwe, not only
from last season, but also when he was at West Virginia.  But do the
Jayhawks have the right horses to counter Tshiebwe?  Udeh and Ejiofor
are still too raw, Clemence perhaps not physical enough, and Adams is
a bit undersized and, lately, foul prone, which may cause him to back
off on his aggressiveness, which the Jayhawks really need.  I see the
way Tshiebwe is handled as being the key to the game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UK      KU      Defensive Stats      UK      KU
Points/Game         75.7    75.9     Opp Points/Game     66.4    67.5
Avg Score Margin    +9.4    +8.5     Opp Effective FG %  48.1    46.7
Assists/Game        16.3    17.1     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.5     9.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.4    37.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.5    24.9
Effective FG %      51.7    52.8     Blocks/Game          4.3     4.1
Off Rebound %       38.1    29.6     Steals/Game          6.9     8.9
FTA/FGA            0.292   0.288     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.5    16.7
Turnover %          14.2    15.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UK  
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.35           -1.00    
inconsistency         11.36           11.58    
trend                 -0.26 ± 0.45    -0.24 ± 0.46
mental toughness      +0.02 ± 0.29    -0.21 ± 0.22
average total pts      143.35         142.05    

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Missouri and Tennessee:

KU  +28 MU  on road (+32 neutral court)
UK  -14 MU  on road (-10 neutral court)
KU  +38 UK  on road (+42 neutral court)

KU  -14 Ten neutral (-14 neutral court)
UK   +7 Ten on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  -29 UK  on road (-25 neutral court)

Thet's an avergae of +4.5 points, though widely disparate results.  That is,
the scatter is over 47 points!

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most points        Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most rebounds      Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most assists       Sahvir Wheeler (guard)
most steals        Cason Wallace (guard)
most blocks        Ugonna Onyenso (forward)
most turnovers     Sahvir Wheeler (guard)
most fouls         Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)

Forward Daimion Collins has been out for the past four games with a foot issue.
His status for today's game is unknown.  He's ninth in terms of minutes played
and points score per game, so not a major loss.  Guard Grant Darbyshire has yet
to play this season while recovering from a lower-body injury.

                                                          16-4           14-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Kentucky
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -0.35   71   72       49       # 11   #  1    # 23   # 72
Sagarin Predictor        0.00   72   72       50.0     # 10   #  1    # 26   # 72 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.01   72   71                #  7   #  1    # 23   # 72 
Sagarin Recent Games    -0.91   71   72                # 14   #  1    # 22   # 72
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.68   74   69       67    
Massey                  +1.00   73   72       52       #  5   #  1    # 24   # 36
Pomeroy                 -0.08   68   68                # 10   #  1    # 31   # 84
Greenfield              -2.50   69   71                #  9   #  2    # 24   # 31
Dunkel                  +2.00   69   67                #  5           # 41
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   69   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -0.30   70   71       48.9     # 14   #  2    # 38   # 40
Real Time               -7.00   70   77       34.0     #  4   #  2    # 45   # 66 
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   71   72       58       # 23   #  2    # 83   # 51
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                -4.10                 34.8     # 17   #  1    # 20   # 49
Whitlock                +3.04                          #  7   #  1    # 48   # 59
Colley Matrix           +3.84                          #  3   #  1    # 40   # 50
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 33 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents        +4.50         
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 37
Pomeroy offense                                        # 25           # 23
Pomeroy defense                                        # 16           # 57
Pomeroy tempo                                          #125           #270
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +0.08   70.7 71.2     49.2
scatter                  3.09    1.8  2.4     11.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 22-9
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #320 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.05    -3.05
HOME   #232 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.48    +0.52
NEUT   # 28 Duke                        69  64    +3.17    +1.83
HOME   #129 Southern Utah               82  76   +16.35   -10.35
NEUT   # 47 NC State                    80  74    +5.79    +0.21
NEUT   # 63 Wisconsin                   69  68    +6.69    -5.69
NEUT   #  2 Tennessee                   50  64    -4.46    -9.54
HOME   #276 Texas Southern              87  55   +25.51    +6.49
HOME   # 52 Seton Hall                  91  65    +8.89   +17.11
AWAY   # 61 Missouri                    95  67    +3.81   +24.19
HOME   # 17 Indiana                     84  62    +4.17   +17.83
HOME   #145 Harvard                     68  54   +17.40    -3.40
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State              69  67    +6.87    -4.87
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                  75  72    +1.90    +1.10
AWAY   # 30 West Virginia               76  62    +0.44   +13.56
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma                    79  75    +8.68    -4.68
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  62  60    +4.30    -2.30
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                82  83    +0.97    -1.97
HOME   # 14 TCU                         60  83    +3.69   -26.69
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                      69  75    -2.74    -3.26
AWAY   # 26 Kentucky                              -0.00             0.500
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                          +6.61             0.742
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            -1.34             0.452
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +2.06             0.576
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma                              +3.04             0.617
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +1.23             0.551
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +2.90             0.602
AWAY   # 14 TCU                                   -1.95             0.440
HOME   # 30 West Virginia                         +6.08             0.702
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                            +7.54             0.735
AWAY   #  6 Texas                                 -3.58             0.369

Here is Kentucky's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #294 Howard                      95  63   +23.52    +8.48
HOME   #140 Duquesne                    77  52   +14.22   +10.78
NEUT   # 34 Michigan State              77  86    +1.15   -10.15
HOME   #354 SC State                   106  63   +31.00   +12.00
AWAY   # 11 Gonzaga                     72  88    -5.59   -10.41
HOME   #283 North Florida(UNF)          96  56   +22.98   +17.02
HOME   #246 Bellarmine                  60  41   +20.95    -1.95
HOME   # 46 Michigan                    73  69    +5.54    -1.54
HOME   # 95 Yale                        69  59   +10.68    -0.68
HOME   #  4 UCLA                        53  63    -2.30    -7.70
HOME   #353 Florida A&M                 88  68   +30.18   -10.18
AWAY   # 61 Missouri                    75  89    +0.99   -14.99
HOME   #241 Louisville                  86  63   +20.57    +2.43
HOME   #103 LSU                         74  71   +11.20    -8.20
AWAY   #  3 Alabama                     52  78    -8.24   -17.76
HOME   #225 South Carolina              68  71   +19.42   -22.42
AWAY   #  2 Tennessee                   63  56   -10.10   +17.10
HOME   #105 Georgia                     85  71   +11.66    +2.34
HOME   # 41 Texas A&M                   76  67    +4.75    +4.25
AWAY   # 90 Vanderbilt                  69  53    +4.49   +11.51
HOME   # 10 Kansas                                +0.00             0.500