Big 12 projection, Round 8

The "Next Game" column is the next *conference* game.

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  7  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6 12.0  6  2   BU  Mon   UT  77  BU  73
# 19  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2 11.4  6  2  @TTU Mon   ISU 64  TTU 61
# 11  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3 10.9  5  3  @UT  Mon                 
# 12  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3 10.8  5  3   KSU Tue   KU  74  KSU 69
# 15  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0 10.5  5  3   WVU Tue   TCU 73  WVU 69
# 33  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7 10.5  6  2  @KU  Tue                 
# 36  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  7.4  3  5  @OU  Wed                 
# 29  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  6.7  2  6  @TCU Tue                 
# 49  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  5.6  2  6   OSU Wed   OU  62  OSU 60
# 39  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  4.2  0  8   ISU Mon                 

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 8 with a total error of just 40.0
points.  Massey pulled the rear with 55.0 total points.  Everybody struggled with TCU's walloping
of Oklahoma, and although some did pick West Virginia to win in Lubbock, the size of the margin
surprised everybody.  Seven Overtimes therefore retains the season lead with an average error of
just 8.0 points, while Dunkel is still in last place with an average error of 10.2 points.

The game in Lubbock was considered a toss-up game for Round 8, but West Virginia did manage
a resounding road win, so we're still three road wins ahead of the long-term average of one
in three.  Just one road win is projected for Round 9, the halfway point of the conference
season, with Iowa State favored in Lubbock.

Road wins (16 out of 40)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Baylor         WVU TTU OU                  0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
3 Texas          OU  OSU WVU                 0 Kansas State                               +2 KSU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Kansas         TCU                         +2 UT 
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 BU 
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      1 TCU            ISU                         +1 KU 
2 TCU            BU  KU                      1 Texas          KSU                         +1 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     -1 OSU
1 West Virginia  TTU                         3 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU                  -2 OU          
0 Oklahoma State                             3 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT                  -2 WVU
0 Texas Tech                                 4 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU  WVU             -4 TTU

While working on the predictions for Monday's game with Baylor, I discovered that I had Baylor
beating Baylor for the third game of the season, not Northern Colorado.  That skewed these
next few statistics.  Baylor isn't nearly as inconsistent as was previously indicated.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +2.36    Oklahoma State    7.57
Kansas State    +2.18    Kansas State      8.80
West Virginia   +1.82    Oklahoma          8.85
Texas           +0.92    Texas            10.01
TCU             +0.86    Baylor           10.99
Kansas          +0.38    Iowa State       11.00
Baylor          -0.38    Kansas           11.41
Oklahoma State  -0.43    West Virginia    11.63
Texas Tech      -0.61    Texas Tech       12.58
Oklahoma        -0.65    TCU              14.13

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.43 +/- 0.45    TCU             +0.36 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      +0.25 +/- 0.47    Oklahoma        +0.15 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.18 +/- 0.35    West Virginia   +0.07 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma State  +0.11 +/- 0.30    Kansas          +0.03 +/- 0.29
Oklahoma        -0.09 +/- 0.35    Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.20
Baylor          -0.20 +/- 0.44    Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.25 +/- 0.45    Oklahoma State  -0.21 +/- 0.17
West Virginia   -0.42 +/- 0.45    Texas           -0.27 +/- 0.20
Texas           -0.47 +/- 0.38    Baylor          -0.38 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech      -0.67 +/- 0.48    Texas Tech      -0.55 +/- 0.20

The following were unaffected by the Baylor error.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           79.60   Iowa State      60.16   Baylor          148.70   TCU             +12.05
Baylor          78.80   Oklahoma State  63.60   Texas           147.30   Texas           +11.90
Kansas State    77.30   TCU             64.95   West Virginia   145.70   Iowa State      +10.26
TCU             77.00   Oklahoma        65.00   Kansas State    145.95   Baylor           +8.90
West Virginia   76.45   Texas           67.70   Kansas          143.35   Kansas State     +8.65
Kansas          75.30   Texas Tech      67.75   TCU             141.95   Kansas           +7.25
Texas Tech      73.65   Kansas          68.05   Texas Tech      141.40   West Virginia    +7.20
Iowa State      70.42   Kansas State    68.65   Oklahoma        131.85   Texas Tech       +5.90
Oklahoma State  67.85   West Virginia   69.25   Oklahoma State  131.45   Oklahoma State   +4.25
Oklahoma        66.85   Baylor          69.90   Iowa State      130.58   Oklahoma         +1.85

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.18 (  1)
Oklahoma        79.97 (  6)
West Virginia   79.92 (  7)
Iowa State      79.66 ( 10)
Baylor          79.52 ( 11)
Oklahoma State  79.28 ( 14)
Texas           77.62 ( 39)
Kansas State    77.11 ( 48)
Texas Tech      76.14 ( 69)
TCU             76.06 ( 70)