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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
- asteroid
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1 year 10 months ago #30200
by asteroid
Today's game in Waco has been a projected loss for Kansas for most of this
season, and after the last two games, Jayhawk fans may be especially worried
that one loss may now turn into three in a row, with another difficult road
game on Saturday. But hey, let's take a page from the Baylor playbook.
Baylor lost to Marquette by 26 points, playing 25 points below expectation in
the process, and then turned around and beat Gonzaga by 1 point in their next
game. So, recovery from a drubbing is possible, and Kansas could certainly
use it.
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is actually picking the Jayhawks by a couple
of points, and Colley hasn't been too impressed by Baylor, ranking the Bears
way down at #21. The home court advantage isn't enough to overcome that
amount of separation, so Colley's ratings also imply a 2 point win for Kansas.
The table below shows the same for Whitlock, but he hasn't updated his ratings
for a week, so the two losses suffered by the Jayhawks aren't yet reflected in
his ratings. My suspicion is that if his ratings were up-to-date, the prediction
would be for Baylor to win. Even the common opponents comparison favors Baylor,
though Kansas handled three of the seven common opponents better than Baylor did.
Unfortunately, the TCU and OSU comparisons are hurting the Jayhawks considerably.
The average of 18 prognostications is for a 2.3 point loss for Kansas, but with
a scatter of 2.8 points.
Saturday's disaster cost Kansas its positive trend, though the now-negative
trend is not statistically significant. Baylor's trend is slightly more
negative, but also not statistically significant. KU's mental toughness value
remains positive, though not significant, while the negative value for Baylor
is significant, and perhaps that will work to the Jayhawks' favor.
Most of the prognostications are calling for a close game with each team
scoring in the low 70s. Baylor plays the highest-scoring games of any Big 12
team, so I'd take the over on total points. I wouldn't be surprised if things
get up into the 80s.
Seven Overtimes, just like Sagarin, is expecting Baylor to win 74 to 72, yet
for some peculiar reason has only a 42 percent confidence in the home team
winning. We'll take it.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats BU KU Defensive Stats BU KU
Points/Game 79.6 76.3 Opp Points/Game 69.3 67.1
Avg Score Margin +10.3 +9.2 Opp Effective FG % 50.1 46.8
Assists/Game 15.9 17.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.7 9.6
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.7 37.2 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.8 24.9
Effective FG % 53.8 52.9 Blocks/Game 2.9 4.1
Off Rebound % 35.2 29.5 Steals/Game 7.3 9.1
FTA/FGA 0.400 0.287 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.9 16.4
Turnover % 15.8 15.2
My Stats Comparison KU BU
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.20 -0.40
inconsistency 11.67 11.27
trend -0.26 ± 0.50 -0.31 ± 0.48
mental toughness +0.05 ± 0.31 -0.40 ± 0.20
average total pts 143.32 148.95
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference:
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
BU -15 ISU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU -23 TCU at home (-27 neutral court)
BU -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU -26 BU on road (-22 neutral court)
KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
BU -2 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
BU +5 WVU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
BU +16 OSU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU -18 BU on road (-14 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU +7 TTU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU -8 BU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU +4 OU at home ( 0 neutral court)
BU +2 OU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court)
Thet's an avergae of -6.71 points, with a scatter of 12.41 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Adam Flagler (guard)
most points Keyonte George (guard)
most rebounds Jalen Bridges (forward)
most assists Adam Flagler (guard)
most steals Dale Bonner (guard)
most blocks Jalen Bridges (forward)
most turnovers Keyonte George (guard)
most fouls Flo Thamba (forward)
Forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is out following knee surgery.
16-3 14-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall -2.16 72 74 42 # 8 # 2 # 9 # 13
Sagarin Predictor -2.34 72 74 41.7 # 9 # 2 # 12 # 13
Sagarin Golden Mean -1.40 72 74 # 6 # 2 # 10 # 13
Sagarin Recent Games -2.16 72 74 # 9 # 2 # 12 # 13
Sagarin Eigenvector +2.42 74 72 59
Massey -2.00 72 74 44 # 3 # 2 # 11 # 5
Pomeroy -1.60 73 75 # 9 # 2 # 14 # 9
Greenfield -2.50 73 76 # 9 # 2 # 11 # 4
Dunkel -7.50 73 80 # 4 # 19
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.50 73 76
Dolphin Predictive -2.12 74 76 42.8 # 12 # 2 # 14 # 5
Real Time -5.00 75 80 40.8 # 4 # 2 # 24 # 20
Seven Overtimes -2.00 72 74 58 # 15 # 6 # 35 # 40
DPPI -3.70 71 75 39.5 # 10 # 4 # 13 # 13
ESPN BPI -5.50 30.3 # 15 # 2 # 8 # 4
Whitlock +2.22 # 4 # 4 # 20 # 13
Colley Matrix +2.41 # 4 # 1 # 21 # 16
NCAA NET # 8 # 15
LRMC # # # #
common opponents -6.71
Massey composite # 6 # 16
Pomeroy offense # 21 # 2
Pomeroy defense # 19 # 93
Pomeroy tempo #117 #150
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -2.34 72.7 75.3 44.2
scatter 2.79 1.1 2.3 9.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #322 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +28.32 -3.32
HOME #232 North Dakota State 82 59 +22.82 +0.18
NEUT # 27 Duke 69 64 +3.26 +1.74
HOME #140 Southern Utah 82 76 +17.41 -11.41
NEUT # 42 NC State 80 74 +5.45 +0.55
NEUT # 56 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.51 -5.51
NEUT # 2 Tennessee 50 64 -3.78 -10.22
HOME #278 Texas Southern 87 55 +25.89 +6.11
HOME # 52 Seton Hall 91 65 +9.16 +16.84
AWAY # 65 Missouri 95 67 +4.79 +23.21
HOME # 15 Indiana 84 62 +4.37 +17.63
HOME #141 Harvard 68 54 +17.65 -3.65
HOME # 32 Oklahoma State 69 67 +6.93 -4.93
AWAY # 36 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.64 +1.36
AWAY # 34 West Virginia 76 62 +1.48 +12.52
HOME # 46 Oklahoma 79 75 +8.42 -4.42
HOME # 17 Iowa State 62 60 +4.58 -2.58
AWAY # 33 Kansas State 82 83 +1.48 -2.48
HOME # 19 TCU 60 83 +4.83 -27.83
AWAY # 12 Baylor -2.39 0.424
AWAY # 28 Kentucky +0.65 0.523
HOME # 33 Kansas State +7.14 0.754
AWAY # 17 Iowa State -1.08 0.462
HOME # 8 Texas +2.78 0.600
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma +2.76 0.609
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma State +1.27 0.551
HOME # 12 Baylor +3.27 0.604
AWAY # 19 TCU -0.83 0.474
HOME # 34 West Virginia +7.14 0.732
HOME # 36 Texas Tech +7.30 0.727
AWAY # 8 Texas -2.88 0.396
Here is Baylor's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #360 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.) 117 53 +35.33 +28.67
HOME #217 Norfolk State 87 70 +21.59 -4.59
HOME #249 Northern Colorado 95 62 +23.70 +9.30
NEUT # 21 Virginia 79 86 +1.69 -8.69
NEUT # 4 UCLA 80 75 -2.68 +7.68
HOME #333 McNeese State 89 60 +29.43 -0.43
AWAY # 20 Marquette 70 96 -1.25 -24.75
NEUT # 10 Gonzaga 64 63 -0.33 +1.33
HOME #218 Tarleton State 80 57 +21.61 +1.39
NEUT # 69 Washington State 65 59 +7.41 -1.41
HOME #235 Northwestern State 58 48 +22.48 -12.48
HOME #254 Nicholls State 85 56 +24.05 +4.95
AWAY # 17 Iowa State 62 77 -1.52 -13.48
HOME # 19 TCU 87 88 +4.39 -5.39
HOME # 33 Kansas State 95 97 +6.70 -8.70
AWAY # 34 West Virginia 83 78 +1.04 +3.96
HOME # 32 Oklahoma State 74 58 +6.49 +9.51
AWAY # 36 Texas Tech 81 74 +1.20 +5.80
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma 62 60 +2.32 -0.32
HOME # 9 Kansas +2.39 0.583
HOME # 25 Arkansas +5.07 0.676
AWAY # 8 Texas -3.32 0.379
HOME # 36 Texas Tech +6.86 0.718
HOME # 46 Oklahoma +7.98 0.794
AWAY # 19 TCU -1.27 0.460
HOME # 34 West Virginia +6.70 0.723
AWAY # 9 Kansas -3.27 0.388
AWAY # 33 Kansas State +1.04 0.541
HOME # 8 Texas +2.34 0.586
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma State +0.83 0.534
HOME # 17 Iowa State +4.14 0.643
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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