Big 12 projection, Round 7

The Big 12 is a six-way race at the moment.

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0 11.6  5  2   OSU Tue   UT  69  OSU 63
#  9  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3 11.3  5  2  @BU  Mon                 
# 17  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6 11.2  5  2  KSU  Tue   ISU 69  KSU 62
# 33  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2 10.7  6  1 @ISU  Tue                 
# 12  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8 10.3  4  3   KU  Mon   BU  75  KU  73
# 19  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0 10.0  4  3   OU  Tue   TCU 69  OU  64
# 32  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  7.8  3  4  @UT  Tue                 
# 46  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  6.2  2  5  @TCU Tue                 
# 34  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  5.9  1  6  @TTU Wed   WVU 69  TTU 69
# 36  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  5.0  0  7   WVU Wed                 

My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 7 with just 42.9 points.
Dunkel again pulled up the rear with 76.5 points.  Seven Overtimes retains the season
lead with an average error of 8.0 points per game, with Dunkel still pulling up the rear
with 10.3 points per game.

Only one road win was projected for Round 7, but two happened, because the Jayhawks could not
defend their home court, ending a 16-game home winning streak.  Other than a toss-up game in
Lubbock, home teams are favored in Round 8.

Road wins (15 out of 35)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
3 Baylor         WVU TTU OU                  0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
3 Texas          OU  OSU WVU                 0 Kansas State                               +2 KSU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     1 Kansas         TCU                         +2 UT 
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 BU 
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      1 TCU            ISU                         +1 KU 
2 TCU            BU  KU                      1 Texas          KSU                         +1 TCU
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     -1 OSU
0 Oklahoma State                             3 Oklahoma       UT  ISU BU                  -2 OU          
0 Texas Tech                                 3 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU                  -3 TTU
0 West Virginia                              3 West Virginia  KU  BU  UT                  -3 WVU

The inconsistencies for Kansas and TCU jumped, as you'd expect.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +2.60    Oklahoma State    7.66
Kansas State    +2.57    Oklahoma          7.88
West Virginia   +1.78    Kansas State      8.88
Texas           +1.03    Texas            10.22
Baylor          +0.70    Iowa State       11.25
TCU             +0.67    West Virginia    11.42
Kansas          +0.20    Kansas           11.67
Oklahoma        -0.16    Texas Tech       12.44
Texas Tech      -0.30    Baylor           13.13
Oklahoma State  -0.38    TCU              13.79

The trend for Kansas turned negative, while the positive trend
for TCU was reinforced.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.32 +/- 0.50    TCU             +0.33 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      +0.37 +/- 0.52    Oklahoma        +0.27 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    +0.22 +/- 0.38    Kansas          +0.05 +/- 0.31
Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.33    West Virginia   +0.02 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma        +0.21 +/- 0.34    Kansas State    -0.08 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.26 +/- 0.50    Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech      -0.51 +/- 0.52    Oklahoma State  -0.19 +/- 0.19
Baylor          -0.56 +/- 0.55    Baylor          -0.28 +/- 0.26
Texas           -0.65 +/- 0.41    Texas           -0.30 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   -0.76 +/- 0.46    Texas Tech      -0.54 +/- 0.20

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           79.21   Iowa State      59.17   Baylor          148.95   Texas           +12.00
Baylor          79.11   Oklahoma State  62.37   Texas           146.42   TCU             +11.47
Kansas State    77.26   Oklahoma        64.37   West Virginia   146.16   Iowa State      +10.83
TCU             77.00   TCU             65.53   Kansas State    145.42   Baylor           +9.26
West Virginia   76.37   Texas           67.21   Kansas          143.32   Kansas State     +9.11
Kansas          75.53   Texas Tech      67.21   TCU             142.53   Kansas           +7.74
Texas Tech      74.42   Kansas          67.79   Texas Tech      141.63   Texas Tech       +7.21
Iowa State      70.00   Kansas State    68.16   Oklahoma        131.89   West Virginia    +6.58
Oklahoma        67.53   West Virginia   69.79   Oklahoma State  129.74   Oklahoma State   +5.00
Oklahoma State  67.37   Baylor          69.84   Iowa State      129.17   Oklahoma         +3.16

All Big 12 teams are now in the Top 100 in strength of schedule.
Nebraska took the top spot away from Kansas, but I suspect a
road game with Baylor will put the Jayhawks back on top.  If not
then, certainly after a road game with Kentucky.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          80.60 (  2)
Iowa State      79.47 (  7)
West Virginia   79.30 (  9)
Oklahoma        79.29 ( 10)
Baylor          79.03 ( 11)
Oklahoma State  78.49 ( 21)
Texas           77.31 ( 40)
Kansas State    76.53 ( 58)
TCU             75.76 ( 70)
Texas Tech      75.52 ( 74)