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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for TCU game
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1 year 10 months ago #30174
by asteroid
I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS!!!
Yeah, you've heard me say that before. I'm still waiting on Sagarin,
but I need to get some sleep, and I'm not going to get up in 4 hours
to post this summary a couple of hours before tip-off, so I'm going
to go with Sagarin's ratings through games on Thursday, which means
I don't have his eigenvector analysis prediction nor his point total on
which to base the scores, so I'm just using the average of KU's and
TCU's total points averages.
And I'll keep the chit-chat to a minimum.
Pomeroy has Kansas with the #14 defense and TCU with the #19 defense.
That's pretty much a wash. Where the Jayhawks have the advantage is
on offense, where Pomeroy has Kansas as #17 and TCU as #73, a much more
substantial difference.
Dunkel is the most optimistic with a 14.5 point margin, while Sagarin's
recent games analysis is the most pessimistic with just a 5.7 point margin.
The average of 18 prognostications is 8.4 points in favor of Kansas.
Maybe I'll post an update just before tip-off while I'm streaming the
pregame show.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats TCU KU Defensive Stats TCU KU
Points/Game 77.3 77.2 Opp Points/Game 65.2 66.2
Avg Score Margin +12.2 +11.0 Opp Effective FG % 46.1 46.0
Assists/Game 16.3 17.6 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.0 9.7
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.4 37.6 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.3 25.2
Effective FG % 50.5 53.3 Blocks/Game 5.1 4.1
Off Rebound % 33.2 29.8 Steals/Game 8.9 9.2
FTA/FGA 0.369 0.292 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.3 16.5
Turnover % 14.4 14.9
My Stats Comparison KU TCU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.50 -0.20
inconsistency 10.10 12.66
trend +0.35 ± 0.51 +1.05 ± 0.53
mental toughness +0.18 ± 0.28 +0.23 ± 0.23
average total pts 142.06 142.50
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference:
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TCU -2 ISU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
TCU +14 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
TCU -9 WVU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +27 TCU at home (+23 neutral court)
Thet's an avergae of +10.75 points, with dramatically different results for
the Kansas State and West Virginia comparisons, leading to a scatter of 11.7
points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Damion Baugh (guard)
most points Mike Miles (guard)
most rebounds Eddie Lampkin Jr. (center)
most assists Damion Baugh (guard)
most steals Damion Baugh (guard)
most blocks Charles O'Bannon Jr. (forward)
most turnovers Mike Miles (guard)
most fouls Micah Peavy (guard)
Guard Micah Peavy has been out for the last three games with a back issue.
Unknown if he'll be available for today's game.
16-2 14-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas TCU
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +6.4 75 68 # 5 # 3 # 29 # 60
Sagarin Predictor +6.0 74 68 70.7 # 7 # 3 # 38 # 60
Sagarin Golden Mean +8.2 76 67 # 2 # 3 # 30 # 60
Sagarin Recent Games +5.7 74 69 # 5 # 3 # 25 # 60
Sagarin Eigenvector + .
Massey +8.00 75 67 75 # 3 # 2 # 19 # 53
Pomeroy +8.3 76 68 # 7 # 4 # 26 # 51
Greenfield +6.50 76 70 # 6 # 2 # 24 # 36
Dunkel +14.50 81 67 # 3 # 25
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.00 76.5 69.5
Dolphin Predictive +8.85 76 67 78.0 # 6 # 2 # 17 # 35
Real Time +13.00 81 68 81.5 # 2 # 2 # 42 #166
Seven Overtimes +12.00 77 65 85 # 11 # 4 # 64 # 96
DPPI +6.10 75 69 # # # #
ESPN BPI +8.10 76.9 # 8 # 2 # 24 # 64
Whitlock +9.3 # 4 # 4 # 36 # 86
Colley Matrix +11.9 # 1 # 5 # 31 #138
NCAA NET # 5 # 14
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +10.75
Massey composite # 3 # 19
Pomeroy offense # 17 # 73
Pomeroy defense # 14 # 19
Pomeroy tempo #114 # 48
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +8.37 76.4 67.9 77.9
scatter 3.33 2.3 1.3 5.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #313 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +28.21 -3.21
HOME #224 North Dakota State 82 59 +22.93 +0.07
NEUT # 25 Duke 69 64 +3.24 +1.76
HOME #145 Southern Utah 82 76 +18.16 -12.16
NEUT # 44 NC State 80 74 +5.84 +0.16
NEUT # 52 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.75 -5.75
NEUT # 2 Tennessee 50 64 -3.03 -10.97
HOME #294 Texas Southern 87 55 +27.00 +5.00
HOME # 41 Seton Hall 91 65 +8.63 +17.37
AWAY # 61 Missouri 95 67 +4.62 +23.38
HOME # 19 Indiana 84 62 +5.47 +16.53
HOME #150 Harvard 68 54 +18.67 -4.67
HOME # 33 Oklahoma State 69 67 +7.61 -5.61
AWAY # 34 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.91 +1.09
AWAY # 30 West Virginia 76 62 +1.52 +12.48
HOME # 42 Oklahoma 79 75 +8.66 -4.66
HOME # 16 Iowa State 62 60 +5.23 -3.23
AWAY # 37 Kansas State 82 83 +2.09 -3.09
HOME # 26 TCU +6.20 0.707
AWAY # 10 Baylor -1.99 0.434
AWAY # 28 Kentucky +1.25 0.548
HOME # 37 Kansas State +7.89 0.797
AWAY # 16 Iowa State -0.57 0.479
HOME # 9 Texas +3.74 0.643
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma +2.86 0.622
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma State +1.81 0.580
HOME # 10 Baylor +3.81 0.625
AWAY # 26 TCU +0.40 0.514
HOME # 30 West Virginia +7.32 0.753
HOME # 34 Texas Tech +7.71 0.751
AWAY # 9 Texas -2.06 0.420
Here is TCU's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #344 Ark.-Pine Bluff 73 72 +28.39 -27.39
HOME #358 Lamar 77 66 +31.87 -20.87
HOME #244 Northwestern State 63 64 +20.93 -21.93
HOME #318 ULM 95 60 +25.11 +9.89
NEUT #189 California 59 48 +14.41 -3.41
NEUT # 23 Iowa 79 66 -0.12 +13.12
HOME # 32 Providence 75 62 +4.23 +8.77
HOME #305 Jackson State 78 51 +24.51 +2.49
NEUT #148 SMU 83 75 +12.20 -4.20
HOME #360 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.) 88 43 +33.48 +11.52
AWAY # 64 Utah 75 71 +1.51 +2.49
HOME #340 Central Arkansas 103 57 +27.62 +18.38
HOME # 34 Texas Tech 67 61 +4.41 +1.59
AWAY # 10 Baylor 88 87 -5.29 +6.29
HOME # 16 Iowa State 67 69 +1.93 -3.93
AWAY # 9 Texas 75 79 -5.36 +1.36
HOME # 37 Kansas State 82 68 +4.59 +9.41
AWAY # 30 West Virginia 65 74 -1.78 -7.22
AWAY # 6 Kansas -6.20 0.293
HOME # 42 Oklahoma +5.36 0.691
AWAY # 58 Mississippi State +0.97 0.533
HOME # 30 West Virginia +4.02 0.630
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma State -1.49 0.444
AWAY # 37 Kansas State -1.21 0.456
HOME # 10 Baylor +0.51 0.515
AWAY # 16 Iowa State -3.87 0.375
HOME # 33 Oklahoma State +4.31 0.658
HOME # 6 Kansas -0.40 0.486
AWAY # 34 Texas Tech -1.39 0.456
HOME # 9 Texas +0.44 0.515
AWAY # 42 Oklahoma -0.44 0.484
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi
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- asteroid
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1 year 10 months ago #30178
by asteroid
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats TCU KU Defensive Stats TCU KU
Points/Game 77.3 77.2 Opp Points/Game 65.2 66.2
Avg Score Margin +12.2 +11.0 Opp Effective FG % 46.1 46.0
Assists/Game 16.3 17.6 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.0 9.7
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.4 37.6 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.3 25.2
Effective FG % 50.5 53.3 Blocks/Game 5.1 4.1
Off Rebound % 33.2 29.8 Steals/Game 8.9 9.2
FTA/FGA 0.369 0.292 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.3 16.5
Turnover % 14.4 14.9
My Stats Comparison KU TCU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.35 -0.20
inconsistency 9.88 12.63
trend +0.22 ± 0.46 +1.03 ± 0.53
mental toughness +0.15 ± 0.27 +0.22 ± 0.23
average total pts 143.33 142.50
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all in conference:
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TCU -2 ISU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +8 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -1 KSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
TCU +14 KSU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU -1 TCU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
TCU -9 WVU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +27 TCU at home (+23 neutral court)
Thet's an avergae of +10.75 points, with dramatically different results for
the Kansas State and West Virginia comparisons, leading to a scatter of 11.7
points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Damion Baugh (guard)
most points Mike Miles (guard)
most rebounds Eddie Lampkin Jr. (center)
most assists Damion Baugh (guard)
most steals Damion Baugh (guard)
most blocks Charles O'Bannon Jr. (forward)
most turnovers Mike Miles (guard)
most fouls Micah Peavy (guard)
Guard Micah Peavy has been out for the last three games with a back issue.
Unknown if he'll be available for today's game.
16-2 14-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas TCU
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +6.39 75 69 72 # 5 # 3 # 29 # 60
Sagarin Predictor +6.05 75 69 70.3 # 7 # 3 # 38 # 60
Sagarin Golden Mean +8.17 76 68 # 2 # 3 # 30 # 60
Sagarin Recent Games +5.69 75 69 # 5 # 3 # 25 # 60
Sagarin Eigenvector +10.59 77 67 81
Massey +8.00 75 67 75 # 3 # 2 # 19 # 53
Pomeroy +8.25 76 68 # 7 # 4 # 26 # 51
Greenfield +6.50 76 70 # 6 # 2 # 24 # 36
Dunkel +14.50 81 67 # 3 # 25
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.00 76.5 69.5
Dolphin Predictive +8.85 76 67 78.0 # 6 # 2 # 17 # 35
Real Time +13.00 81 68 81.5 # 2 # 2 # 42 #166
Seven Overtimes +12.00 77 65 85 # 11 # 4 # 64 # 96
DPPI +6.10 75 69 # # # #
ESPN BPI +8.10 76.9 # 8 # 2 # 24 # 64
Whitlock +9.23 # 4 # 4 # 36 # 86
Colley Matrix +11.84 # 1 # 5 # 31 #138
NCAA NET # 5 # 14
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +10.75
Massey composite # 3 # 19
Pomeroy offense # 17 # 73
Pomeroy defense # 14 # 19
Pomeroy tempo #114 # 48
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +8.94 76.5 68.0 77.5
scatter 2.62 2.0 1.3 5.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #315 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +28.47 -3.47
HOME #227 North Dakota State 82 59 +23.27 -0.27
NEUT # 25 Duke 69 64 +3.31 +1.69
HOME #124 Southern Utah 82 76 +16.97 -10.97
NEUT # 42 NC State 80 74 +5.95 +0.05
NEUT # 54 Wisconsin 69 68 +6.86 -5.86
NEUT # 2 Tennessee 50 64 -2.86 -11.14
HOME #289 Texas Southern 87 55 +26.84 +5.16
HOME # 43 Seton Hall 91 65 +8.86 +17.14
AWAY # 65 Missouri 95 67 +4.90 +23.10
HOME # 14 Indiana 84 62 +4.87 +17.13
HOME #153 Harvard 68 54 +18.74 -4.74
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State 69 67 +7.55 -5.55
AWAY # 35 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.92 +1.08
AWAY # 30 West Virginia 76 62 +1.66 +12.34
HOME # 46 Oklahoma 79 75 +8.99 -4.99
HOME # 17 Iowa State 62 60 +5.23 -3.23
AWAY # 36 Kansas State 82 83 +2.20 -3.20
HOME # 22 TCU +6.06 0.703
AWAY # 11 Baylor -1.85 0.438
AWAY # 28 Kentucky +1.21 0.547
HOME # 36 Kansas State +7.90 0.798
AWAY # 17 Iowa State -0.47 0.483
HOME # 10 Texas +3.60 0.639
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma +3.29 0.641
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State +1.85 0.582
HOME # 11 Baylor +3.85 0.627
AWAY # 22 TCU +0.36 0.513
HOME # 30 West Virginia +7.36 0.754
HOME # 35 Texas Tech +7.62 0.749
AWAY # 10 Texas -2.10 0.418
Here is TCU's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #343 Ark.-Pine Bluff 73 72 +28.45 -27.45
HOME #357 Lamar 77 66 +31.74 -20.74
HOME #237 Northwestern State 63 64 +20.67 -21.67
HOME #303 ULM 95 60 +24.52 +10.48
NEUT #185 California 59 48 +14.41 -3.41
NEUT # 24 Iowa 79 66 +0.04 +12.96
HOME # 33 Providence 75 62 +4.33 +8.67
HOME #304 Jackson State 78 51 +24.58 +2.42
NEUT #147 SMU 83 75 +12.39 -4.39
HOME #361 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.) 88 43 +33.64 +11.36
AWAY # 55 Utah 75 71 +0.89 +3.11
HOME #339 Central Arkansas 103 57 +27.81 +18.19
HOME # 35 Texas Tech 67 61 +4.41 +1.59
AWAY # 11 Baylor 88 87 -5.06 +6.06
HOME # 17 Iowa State 67 69 +2.02 -4.02
AWAY # 10 Texas 75 79 -5.31 +1.31
HOME # 36 Kansas State 82 68 +4.69 +9.31
AWAY # 30 West Virginia 65 74 -1.55 -7.45
AWAY # 7 Kansas -6.06 0.296
HOME # 46 Oklahoma +5.78 0.706
AWAY # 60 Mississippi State +1.23 0.541
HOME # 30 West Virginia +4.15 0.635
AWAY # 34 Oklahoma State -1.36 0.448
AWAY # 36 Kansas State -1.01 0.463
HOME # 11 Baylor +0.64 0.519
AWAY # 17 Iowa State -3.68 0.380
HOME # 34 Oklahoma State +4.34 0.660
HOME # 7 Kansas -0.36 0.487
AWAY # 35 Texas Tech -1.29 0.459
HOME # 10 Texas +0.39 0.514
AWAY # 46 Oklahoma +0.08 0.503Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.