Big 12 projection, Round 6

                     Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 
Pred                 Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game  Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  7  Kansas         11.6 11.4 12.0 13.1 12.8 12.9 12.3  5  1   TCU Sat   KU  75  TCU 67
# 16  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  9.1 10.1 11.2 11.0 11.6  5  1  @OSU Sat   ISU 59  OSU 58
#  9  Texas          11.3 11.6 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.0  4  2  @WVU Sat                 
# 37  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  8.8  9.6 10.1  9.5 10.2  5  1   TTU Sat   KSU 74  TTU 68
# 10  Baylor         10.7  9.8  9.0  7.9  8.7  9.1  9.8  3  3  @OU  Sat                 
# 26  TCU             8.4  9.1 10.0  9.2  9.0  9.7  9.0  3  3  @KU  Sat                 
# 33  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  8.6  7.9  7.3  6.9  7.3  2  4   ISU Sat                 
# 42  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  6.2  7.0  7.0  7.2  6.8  2  4   BU  Sat   OU  71  BU  71
# 30  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  7.7  6.9  6.2  5.7  6.5  1  5   UT  Sat   WVU 74  UT  73
# 34  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  8.1  7.1  6.3  6.3  5.5  0  6  @KSU Sat                 

Real Time took honors for best prognostications in Round 6.  He mised on the Baylor win by
19 points, but nailed the other four games by 2, 0, 3, and 2 points for a grand total of
only 26.0 points.  The next closest was the BPI at 34.3 points.  My trend analysis edged
out Seven Overtimes for worst, 47.2 points to 47.0 points.  However, Seven Overtimes retains
the season lead with an average error of just 7.7 points per game, and Real Time is worst at
9.5 points per game.

Two road wins were projected for Round 6, but only one happened.  Only one road win is
projected for Round 7, but if you look at the fractions of a point, Iowa State is
favored by only 0.05 points in Stillwater, so the Cowboys might just help us out by
hanging a second conference loss on the Clones.

Road wins (12 out of 30)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 Baylor         WVU TTU                     0 Iowa State                                 +2 ISU
2 Iowa State     OU  TCU                     0 Kansas                                     +2 KU 
2 Kansas         TTU WVU                     0 Kansas State                               +2 KSU
2 Kansas State   UT  BU                      1 Oklahoma State UT                          +1 UT 
2 Texas          OU  OSU                     1 TCU            ISU                          0 BU 
1 Oklahoma       TTU                         1 Texas          KSU                          0 TCU
1 TCU            BU                          2 Baylor         TCU KSU                     -1 OU 
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Oklahoma       UT  ISU                     -1 OSU         
0 Texas Tech                                 2 West Virginia  KU  BU                      -2 WVU
0 West Virginia                              3 Texas Tech     KU  OU  BU                  -3 TTU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Iowa State      +2.82    Oklahoma State    7.91
Kansas State    +2.52    Oklahoma          8.38
West Virginia   +1.81    Kansas State      9.00
Kansas          +1.36    Kansas            9.94
Texas           +0.96    Texas            10.43
Baylor          +0.64    West Virginia    11.45
Texas Tech      -0.13    Iowa State       11.60
Oklahoma State  -0.18    TCU              12.66
TCU             -0.20    Texas Tech       12.70
Oklahoma        -0.40    Baylor           13.62

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +1.05 +/- 0.53    Oklahoma        +0.30 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      +0.55 +/- 0.58    TCU             +0.23 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        +0.24 +/- 0.39    Kansas          +0.16 +/- 0.27
Kansas          +0.23 +/- 0.46    West Virginia   +0.05 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.37    Kansas State    -0.10 +/- 0.22
Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.42    Iowa State      -0.11 +/- 0.23
Texas Tech      -0.45 +/- 0.58    Oklahoma State  -0.20 +/- 0.20
Baylor          -0.62 +/- 0.62    Baylor          -0.27 +/- 0.27
West Virginia   -0.72 +/- 0.51    Texas           -0.32 +/- 0.21
Texas           -0.90 +/- 0.43    Texas Tech      -0.55 +/- 0.22

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Baylor          79.94   Iowa State      59.18   Baylor          150.44   Texas           +12.00
Texas           79.67   Oklahoma State  62.44   Texas           147.33   Iowa State      +11.35
Kansas State    77.89   Oklahoma        64.39   West Virginia   147.06   TCU             +10.61
West Virginia   77.33   TCU             65.94   Kansas State    146.50   Kansas           +9.67
TCU             76.56   Kansas          66.83   Kansas          143.33   Baylor           +9.44
Kansas          76.50   Texas Tech      67.28   TCU             142.50   Kansas State     +9.28
Texas Tech      75.22   Texas           67.67   Texas Tech      142.50   Texas Tech       +7.94
Iowa State      70.53   Kansas State    68.61   Oklahoma        132.44   West Virginia    +7.61
Oklahoma        68.06   West Virginia   69.72   Oklahoma State  130.28   Oklahoma State   +5.39
Oklahoma State  67.83   Baylor          70.50   Iowa State      129.71   Oklahoma         +3.67

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          80.44 (  1)
Oklahoma        78.98 (  9)
West Virginia   78.88 ( 12)
Iowa State      78.63 ( 14)
Baylor          78.35 ( 16)
Oklahoma State  78.16 ( 21)
Kansas State    76.33 ( 53)
Texas           76.32 ( 54)
TCU             74.43 (100)
Texas Tech      74.36 (101)