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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma game
- asteroid
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2 years 3 months ago #30065
by asteroid
The initial Big 12 conference projection called for Kansas to have just 11.6 wins.
Hold serve at home (9 wins), and you just need 2 or 3 road wins to achieve that
projection. The Jayhawks already have 2 of those road wins; it'll be a while
before they get a chance at that third road win. But the conference season has
started well for the Jayhawks.
The key words above are "hold serve at home". Today's game is as easy as it
gets, at least on paper. If you look at the predictions for all the remaining
games in the table below, the 9.9 points associated with today's game is the
largest of the bunch. But you can't take the Sooners lightly.
What stands out about Oklahoma is the pace of their play. Pomeroy has them
ranked #345 in tempo, and that's out of 363 Division I teams. Expect them to
try and slow down the game. On the other hand, Kansas is averaging 9 steals
per game, which gives the Jayhawks the opportunity to run. Oklahoma's turnover
percentage is 18.
Oklahoma has played above expectation in three of their last four games, while
Kansas has played above expectation in six of their last eight games. Both
teams have positive trends with marginal statistical significance. Both teams
have positive mental toughness values, though Oklahoma's is statistically
significant, whereas Kansas' is not.
The peculiar thing about Oklahoma is that they've lost both conference home
games and won their only conference road game. Let's hope that trend doesn't
continue.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OU KU Defensive Stats OU KU
Points/Game 68.3 77.7 Opp Points/Game 61.6 64.9
Avg Score Margin +6.7 +12.9 Opp Effective FG % 46.4 45.8
Assists/Game 14.2 18.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 5.1 10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 31.7 38.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.1 25.5
Effective FG % 56.3 54.5 Blocks/Game 3.0 4.0
Off Rebound % 20.1 31.1 Steals/Game 6.1 9.3
FTA/FGA 0.268 0.245 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.5 16.3
Turnover % 17.9 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU OU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.46 +0.11
inconsistency 10.60 8.83
trend +0.91 ± 0.61 +0.69 ± 0.51
mental toughness +0.23 ± 0.28 +0.42 ± 0.20
average total pts 142.60 129.93
Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Seton Hall and Texas Tech:
KU +26 SH at home (+22 neutral court)
OU +13 SH neutral (+13 neutral court)
KU +13 OU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +3 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OU +5 TTU on road ( +9 neutral court) OVERTIME GAME
KU +2 OU at home ( -2 neutral court)
If you consider how Oklahoma did in just regulation, then the margin becomes
zero (though +4 on a neutral court), which would make Kansas +3 on a neutral
court and +7 at home. The two common opponents would then average +10 for
Kansas. I will use this revised value in the table below.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Grant Sherfield (guard)
most points Grant Sherfield (guard)
most rebounds Tanner Groves (forward)
most assists Grant Sherfield (guard)
most steals Grant Sherfield (guard)
most blocks Tanner Groves (forward)
most turnovers Grant Sherfield (guard)
most fouls Tanner Groves (forward)
Reserve forward Yaya Keita is out for the season following shin surgery.
14-1 10-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +10.40 71 60 81 # 3 # 2 # 35 # 24
Sagarin Predictor +9.89 70 61 84.5 # 5 # 2 # 36 # 24
Sagarin Golden Mean +11.35 71 60 # 2 # 2 # 38 # 24
Sagarin Recent Games +10.15 71 60 # 3 # 2 # 36 # 24
Sagarin Eigenvector +13.48 72 59 86
Massey +8.00 73 65 76 # 1 # 1 # 33 # 22
Pomeroy +9.02 68 59 # 5 # 3 # 31 # 18
Greenfield +10.00 72 62 # 6 # 2 # 35 # 23
Dunkel +5.50 68 63 # 2 # 44
Vegas (via Dunkel) +9.50 72 62
Dolphin Predictive +10.72 73 62 83.1 # 5 # 1 # 38 # 25
Real Time +18.00 83 65 90.9 # 1 # 8 # 54 # 41
Seven Overtimes +7.00 72 65 74 # 5 # 6 # 41 # 77
DPPI # # # #
ESPN BPI +9.10 81.8 # 7 # 1 # 37 # 21
Whitlock +10.89 # 4 # 4 # 45 # 12
Colley Matrix +13.89 # 1 # 7 # 55 # 28
NCAA NET # 4 # 48
LRMC # # # #
common opponents +10.00
Massey composite # 2 # 43
Pomeroy offense # 8 # 37
Pomeroy defense # 11 # 46
Pomeroy tempo #148 #345
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +10.41 72.0 61.8 82.2
scatter 2.82 3.7 2.2 5.4
Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 25-6
record:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #293 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 89 64 +28.29 -3.29
HOME #243 North Dakota State 82 59 +25.31 -2.31
NEUT # 20 Duke 69 64 +4.06 +0.94
HOME #155 Southern Utah 82 76 +20.02 -14.02
NEUT # 39 NC State 80 74 +7.02 -1.02
NEUT # 46 Wisconsin 69 68 +7.51 -6.51
NEUT # 1 Tennessee 50 64 -3.31 -10.69
HOME #281 Texas Southern 87 55 +27.66 +4.34
HOME # 53 Seton Hall 91 65 +10.97 +15.03
AWAY # 51 Missouri 95 67 +4.64 +23.36
HOME # 17 Indiana 84 62 +6.39 +15.61
HOME #137 Harvard 68 54 +19.22 -5.22
HOME # 32 Oklahoma State 69 67 +8.66 -6.66
AWAY # 25 Texas Tech 75 72 +1.91 +1.09
AWAY # 33 West Virginia 76 62 +2.75 +11.25
HOME # 36 Oklahoma +9.89 0.845
HOME # 28 Iowa State +8.18 0.785
AWAY # 35 Kansas State +3.12 0.623
HOME # 26 TCU +8.07 0.745
AWAY # 16 Baylor +0.15 0.505
AWAY # 30 Kentucky +2.39 0.588
HOME # 35 Kansas State +9.24 0.824
AWAY # 28 Iowa State +2.06 0.579
HOME # 7 Texas +4.40 0.660
AWAY # 36 Oklahoma +3.77 0.650
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma State +2.54 0.608
HOME # 16 Baylor +6.27 0.688
AWAY # 26 TCU +1.95 0.563
HOME # 33 West Virginia +8.87 0.782
HOME # 25 Texas Tech +8.03 0.769
AWAY # 7 Texas -1.72 0.436
Here is Oklahoma's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME # 85 Sam Houston State 51 52 +7.76 -8.76
HOME #349 Ark.-Pine Bluff 66 58 +27.28 -19.28
HOME #129 NC Wilmington 74 53 +11.78 +9.22
HOME #177 South Alabama 64 60 +14.28 -10.28
NEUT # 89 Nebraska 69 56 +4.88 +8.12
NEUT # 53 Seton Hall 77 64 +1.08 +11.92
NEUT # 80 Mississippi 59 55 +3.91 +0.09
AWAY # 52 Villanova 66 70 -2.18 -1.82
HOME #227 Kansas City(UMKC) 75 53 +17.28 +4.72
AWAY # 13 Arkansas 78 88 -6.89 -3.11
HOME #343 Central Arkansas 87 66 +25.57 -4.57
NEUT # 45 Florida 62 53 +0.66 +8.34
HOME # 7 Texas 69 70 -2.43 +1.43
HOME # 28 Iowa State 60 63 +1.35 -4.35
AWAY # 25 Texas Tech 68 63 -4.92 +9.92
AWAY # 5 Kansas -9.89 0.155
HOME # 33 West Virginia +2.04 0.576
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma State -4.29 0.303
HOME # 16 Baylor -0.56 0.481
AWAY # 26 TCU -4.88 0.336
HOME # 6 Alabama -2.54 0.400
HOME # 32 Oklahoma State +1.83 0.587
AWAY # 33 West Virginia -4.08 0.350
AWAY # 16 Baylor -6.68 0.290
HOME # 5 Kansas -3.77 0.350
HOME # 35 Kansas State +2.41 0.605
AWAY # 7 Texas -8.55 0.192
HOME # 25 Texas Tech +1.20 0.547
AWAY # 28 Iowa State -4.77 0.307
AWAY # 35 Kansas State -3.71 0.340
HOME # 26 TCU +1.24 0.543
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, newtonhawk
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