predictions for Texas Tech game

This is where the conference championship is won:  on the road.  Although there are
only two projected road losses, namely at Waco and at Austin, today's game is a
toss-up, so a half projected win is up for grabs.  Kansas actually picked up a
quarter of a projected win by beating Oklahoma State on Saturday, but by playing
5 points below expectation, the revised Sagarin Predictor rating cost the Jayhawks
half a projected win, causing them to slide a couple tenths of a projected win
behind Texas in the projected standings, with the rounding going in opposite
directions, meaning that Texas would be projected to win the conference with a
12-6 record, while Kansas would finish 11-7.  A win today could go a long way
toward retaking the top spot, especially if Texas doesn't win by double digits
in its home opener against a team that is projected to win only 7 conference games.

There are several prognosticators expecting Kansas to lose, but by at most 3 points,
but that's Real Time's huge home court advantage at work.  Those with Kansas winning
have the margin somewhat larger, with Sagarin's eigenvector analysis being the most
favorable at 11.3 points.  Colley is also way up there at 9.5 points.  The Seven
Overtimes prediction is a bit of a head scratcher, in that the one-point victory by
Kansas apparently corresponds to only a 21 percent chance of Texas Tech winning the
game, when it ought to be in the mid 40s range.  The average of 18 predictions is
showing Kansas with a 2 point margin.

Appreciate Sagarin getting his revised ratings out several hours before 5 a.m. for
a change.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         80.1    78.1     Opp Points/Game     62.7    64.5
Avg Score Margin   +17.4   +13.5     Opp Effective FG %  45.7    45.5
Assists/Game        15.8    18.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.1    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.2    38.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.3    25.8
Effective FG %      57.2    54.4     Blocks/Game          3.3     4.2
Off Rebound %       29.3    30.9     Steals/Game          9.4     9.6
FTA/FGA            0.414   0.252     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.2    16.1
Turnover %          17.9    15.0

My Stats Comparison        KU              TTU 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.95           +1.31    
inconsistency         11.56           11.70    
trend                 +1.05 ± 0.84    +0.58 ± 0.89
mental toughness      +0.24 ± 0.34    -0.52 ± 0.27
average total pts      142.62         142.77    

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Texas Southern:

KU  +32 TXS at home (+28 neutral court)
TTU +24 TXS at home (+20 neutral court)
KU   +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       De'Vion Harman (guard)
most points        Kevin Obanor (forward)
most rebounds      Daniel Batcho (forward)
most assists       De'Vion Harman (guard)
most steals        De'Vion Harman (guard)
most blocks        Daniel Batcho (forward)
most turnovers     Pop Issacs (guard)
most fouls         Kevin Obanor (forward)

Guard D'Maurian Williams sat out the last game with an unspecified injury; it's
unclear whether he'll be available for the Kansas game.  Forward Fardaws Aimaq
has been recovering from a broken foot, but he's probably another couple of weeks
away from being able to return to action.  Williams is ninth on the team in
minutes played per game and sixth in points scored per game

                                                          12-1          10-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech 
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +1.86   73   71       57       #  5   # 12    # 23   #323
Sagarin Predictor       +0.21   72   71       50.8     #  7   # 12    # 23   #323 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +3.67   73   70                #  2   # 12    # 31   #323 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.07   73   71                #  5   # 12    # 21   #323
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.26   77   66       82    
Massey                  -1.00   69   70       47       #  1   #  4    # 23   # 90
Pomeroy                 +2.92   69   66                #  5   # 20    # 31   #338
Greenfield              +2.50   71   68.5              #  8   #  5    # 21   # 57
Dunkel                  -1.00   73   74                #  3           # 14
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.50   71   69                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -1.03   69   70       46.4     #  8   #  8    # 23   # 80
Real Time               -3.00   74   77       40.7     #  1   # 13    #101   #344 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   71   70       79       #  8   #  9    # 81   #160
DPPI                    -0.20   70   71       49.5     #  9   # 10    # 53   #279 
ESPN BPI                -2.20                 41.8     # 14   # 20    # 21   #202
Whitlock                +4.91                          #  7   #  5    # 56   #153
Colley Matrix           +9.50                          #  1   #  8    # 87   #309
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 42 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents        +4.00         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 43
Pomeroy offense                                        # 14           # 61
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 22
Pomeroy tempo                                          #134           #150
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2,11   71.8 70.3     54.9
scatter                  3.74    2.3  2.8     15.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #307 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +27.78    -2.78
HOME   #261 North Dakota State          82  59   +25.06    -2.06
NEUT   # 14 Duke                        69  64    +1.16    +3.84
HOME   #165 Southern Utah               82  76   +19.27   -13.27
NEUT   # 58 NC State                    80  74    +7.01    -1.01
NEUT   # 36 Wisconsin                   69  68    +5.35    -4.35
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.11   -11.89
HOME   #253 Texas Southern              87  55   +24.51    +7.49
HOME   # 52 Seton Hall                  91  65    +9.43   +16.57
AWAY   # 50 Missouri                    95  67    +3.52   +24.48
HOME   # 16 Indiana                     84  62    +4.26   +17.74
HOME   #155 Harvard                     68  54   +18.62    -4.62
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma State              69  67    +6.82    -4.82
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            +0.22             0.508
AWAY   # 31 West Virginia                         +1.17             0.539
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                              +8.25             0.776
HOME   # 33 Iowa State                            +7.78             0.753
AWAY   # 49 Kansas State                          +3.50             0.637
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +6.67             0.694
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                                -2.07             0.440
AWAY   # 24 Kentucky                              +0.50             0.518
HOME   # 49 Kansas State                          +9.26             0.823
AWAY   # 33 Iowa State                            +2.02             0.570
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 +2.96             0.610
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                              +2.49             0.591
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma State                        +1.06             0.543
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                +3.69             0.605
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                   +0.91             0.528
HOME   # 31 West Virginia                         +6.93             0.717
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                            +5.98             0.697
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -2.80             0.395

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #245 Northwestern State          73  49   +20.87    +3.13
HOME   #253 Texas Southern              78  54   +21.41    +2.59
HOME   #120 Louisiana Tech              64  55   +13.52    -4.52
NEUT   # 21 Creighton                   65  76    -0.45   -10.55
NEUT   #243 Louisville                  70  38   +17.93   +14.07
NEUT   #  9 Ohio State                  73  80    -2.61    -4.39
HOME   #172 Georgetown                  79  65   +16.69    -2.69
HOME   #229 Nicholls State              78  71   +20.04   -13.04
HOME   #188 Eastern Washington          77  70   +17.49   -10.49
NEUT   #302 Jackson State              102  52   +21.60   +28.40
HOME   #359 Houston Christian          111  67   +32.45   +11.55
HOME   #356 SC State                   110  71   +31.43    +7.57
AWAY   # 26 TCU                         61  67    -2.19    -3.81
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -0.22             0.492
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                              +5.15             0.681
AWAY   # 33 Iowa State                            -1.08             0.462
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -5.90             0.289
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                +0.59             0.517
AWAY   # 49 Kansas State                          +0.40             0.516
HOME   # 31 West Virginia                         +3.83             0.624
AWAY   # 77 LSU                                   +3.16             0.610
HOME   # 33 Iowa State                            +4.68             0.659
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                                -5.17             0.355
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma State                        -2.04             0.419
HOME   # 49 Kansas State                          +6.16             0.729
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 -0.14             0.495
AWAY   # 31 West Virginia                         -1.93             0.437
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                              -0.61             0.478
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +3.57             0.607
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -5.98             0.303
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma State                        +3.72             0.646