Big 12 projection, Round 1

Given the parity in the conference, let's just say right at the outset that the projected
standings are going to feature a lot of shuffling from one round to the next.

                     Init Rd 1 
Pred                 Proj Proj Conf
Rank  Big XII Team   Wins Wins Recrd  Next Game   Prediction
----  -------------- ---- ---- -----  ---------  --------------
#  8  Texas          11.3 11.6  1  0   KSU Tue   UT  73  KSU 62
#  7  Kansas         11.6 11.4  1  0  @TTU Tue   KU  70  TTU 66
# 10  Baylor         10.7  9.8  0  1   TCU Wed   BU  74  TCU 68
# 30  TCU             8.4  9.1  1  0  @BU  Wed                 
# 23  Texas Tech      9.1  8.8  0  1   KU  Tue                 
# 33  Iowa State      7.5  8.5  1  0  @OU  Wed                 
# 26  West Virginia   9.3  8.3  0  1  @OSU Mon                 
# 32  Oklahoma State  8.4  8.2  0  1   WVU Mon   OSU 68  WVU 67
# 48  Kansas State    6.4  7.2  1  0  @UT  Tue                 
# 39  Oklahoma        7.3  7.1  0  1   ISU Wed   OU  62  ISU 57

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 1 by a wide margin over the second-place
BPI.  My trend analysis did the best job of predicting the Iowa State thrashing of Baylor, but did a
lousy job predicting the KU and TCU winning margins.  Dunkel brought up the rear by a wide margin.

Error
------------------------------------------------------------------------1---------------------
SagO SagP SagG SagR SagE Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
 7.2  6.0  8.9  6.9 12.3  6.0  7.0  8.0 10.0  8.0  8.3 12.0  6.9  5.0  2.0 16.0  8.2  7.0 11.1 KU-OSU
 3.1  4.2  2.0  3.2  0.3  8.0  3.7  0.0  2.0  0.0  5.6  0.7  4.0  2.5  2.0  7.0  6.1  3.2 10.1 TCU-TT
 1.8  1.8  0.3  2.6  3.5  2.0  1.4  2.5 15.0  2.0  0.1  0.8  0.4  1.9  2.0  2.0  2.6  0.8  7.2 UT-OU
17.6 17.3 17.4 18.0 17.3 19.0 16.5 17.0 23.5 17.0 13.8 15.0 13.8 15.3  8.0  4.0 16.4 16.3  0.6 BU-ISU
 6.1  7.2  6.8  5.4  6.5  5.0  6.8  5.0  8.5  5.0  4.7  2.4  6.6  4.1  4.0  7.0  7.2  6.2  9.7 WV-KSU

35.8 36.5 35.4 36.1 39.9 40.0 35.4 32.5 59.0 32.0 32.5 30.9 31.7 28.8 18.0 36.0 40.5 33.5 38.7 total
 7.2  7.3  7.1  7.2  8.0  8.0  7.1  6.5 11.8  6.4  6.5  6.2  6.3  5.8  3.6  7.2  8.1  6.7  7.7 per game

There were three projected road wins in Round 1, but only one panned out.  Just one projected
road win in Round 2, namely Kansas over Texas Tech, though West Virginia at Oklahoma State
on Monday is projected to be a one-possession affair.

Road wins ( 1 out of  5)                     Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Texas          OU                          0 Baylor                                     +1 UT 
0 Baylor                                     0 Iowa State                                  0 BU
0 Iowa State                                 0 Kansas                                      0 ISU
0 Kansas                                     0 Kansas State                                0 KU 
0 Kansas State                               0 Oklahoma State                              0 KSU
0 Oklahoma                                   0 TCU                                         0 OSU
0 Oklahoma State                             0 Texas                                       0 TCU
0 TCU                                        0 Texas Tech                                  0 TTU          
0 Texas Tech                                 0 West Virginia                               0 WVU
0 West Virginia                              1 Oklahoma       UT                          -1 OU 

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
West Virginia   +3.15    Oklahoma State    7.93
Kansas State    +3.01    Kansas State      8.15
Iowa State      +2.62    Texas             9.45
Texas           +2.49    Oklahoma         10.10
Kansas          +1.92    Iowa State       11.20
Oklahoma        +1.61    Kansas           11.56
Texas Tech      +1.31    Texas Tech       11.70
Baylor          +0.35    West Virginia    12.55
Oklahoma State  -0.01    TCU              14.56
TCU             -0.08    Baylor           15.77

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +2.68 +/- 0.79    Oklahoma        +0.49 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma        +1.28 +/- 0.68    TCU             +0.35 +/- 0.34
Kansas          +1.04 +/- 0.84    Kansas          +0.24 +/- 0.34
Oklahoma State  +0.89 +/- 0.55    West Virginia   +0.24 +/- 0.37
Texas Tech      +0.58 +/- 0.89    Oklahoma State  -0.07 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.63    Texas           -0.21 +/- 0.22
Iowa State      -0.64 +/- 0.96    Iowa State      -0.30 +/- 0.24
Texas           -0.75 +/- 0.70    Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.34
West Virginia   -1.06 +/- 0.92    Texas Tech      -0.52 +/- 0.27
Baylor          -2.00 +/- 1.06    Kansas State    -0.55 +/- 0.23

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           81.46   Iowa State      58.50   West Virginia   148.38   Texas           +17.54
West Virginia   80.31   Kansas State    62.92   Baylor          145.62   Texas Tech      +15.23
Texas Tech      79.00   Oklahoma        62.15   Texas           145.38   TCU             +14.38
Baylor          78.54   Oklahoma State  62.38   Texas Tech      142.77   West Virginia   +12.23
Kansas          77.00   TCU             62.46   Kansas          142.62   Kansas State    +11.77
TCU             76.85   Texas Tech      63.77   TCU             139.31   Iowa State      +11.75
Kansas State    74.69   Texas           63.92   Kansas State    137.62   Baylor          +11.46
Oklahoma State  71.00   Kansas          65.62   Oklahoma State  133.38   Kansas          +11.38
Iowa State      70.25   Baylor          67.08   Oklahoma        130.38   Oklahoma State   +8.62
Oklahoma        68.23   West Virginia   68.08   Iowa State      128.75   Oklahoma         +6.08

A couple more conference members have joined the Top 100 in strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          78.07 ( 16)
Oklahoma        76.32 ( 43)
West Virginia   75.18 ( 71)
Oklahoma State  74.97 ( 77)
Baylor          73.60 (122)
Iowa State      72.61 (175)
Kansas State    72.23 (201)
Texas           71.15 (257)
Texas Tech      69.20 (322)
TCU             67.64 (352)