initial Big 12 projection

Other than the SEC Challenge games a month from now, Big 12 members have completed their
non-conference action, and today's Sagarin ratings include the results of all those games,
so we're ready for the initial projection for the Big 12:

                      Init.
Pred                  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins
----  -------------- -----
#  5  Kansas          11.6
#  8  Texas           11.3
#  9  Baylor          10.7
# 22  West Virginia    9.3
# 26  Texas Tech       9.1
# 30  Oklahoma State   8.4
# 32  TCU              8.4
# 39  Iowa State       7.5
# 40  Oklahoma         7.3
# 56  Kansas State     6.4

The champion with only 12 wins?  What parity!

Predictions for Round 1 games on Saturday, based on Pomeroy's ratings:

KU  72  OSU 63
TCU 69  TTU 67
UT  66  OU  63
BU  66  ISU 64
WVU 70  KSU 69

So there are three projected road wins in Round 1, but all incredibly close games
that could go either way.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Kansas State    +3.18    Oklahoma State    7.95
West Virginia   +3.10    Kansas State      8.40
Texas           +2.57    Texas             9.93
Iowa State      +2.27    Oklahoma         10.24
Kansas          +1.96    Iowa State       10.70
Texas Tech      +1.76    Kansas           11.46
Oklahoma        +1.63    Texas Tech       12.38
Baylor          +1.13    West Virginia    12.77
TCU             -0.12    TCU              14.99
Oklahoma State  -0.28    Baylor           15.85

TCU's first three games were disasters, so no wonder their trend is so strongly positive.

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +3.20 +/- 0.84    Oklahoma        +0.49 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma        +1.58 +/- 0.75    West Virginia   +0.35 +/- 0.39
Kansas          +1.55 +/- 0.88    TCU             +0.34 +/- 0.39
Texas Tech      +0.94 +/- 1.04    Kansas          +0.22 +/- 0.35
Oklahoma State  +0.91 +/- 0.64    Oklahoma State  -0.17 +/- 0.26
Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.74    Texas           -0.17 +/- 0.25
Texas           -0.77 +/- 0.84    Baylor          -0.25 +/- 0.36
West Virginia   -0.99 +/- 1.08    Iowa State      -0.41 +/- 0.22
Iowa State      -1.66 +/- 0.92    Texas Tech      -0.56 +/- 0.33
Baylor          -1.85 +/- 1.26    Kansas State    -0.63 +/- 0.24

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Texas           82.25   Iowa State      58.00   West Virginia   147.58   Texas           +18.58
West Virginia   80.50   Oklahoma        61.33   Baylor          146.17   Texas Tech      +16.67
Texas Tech      80.33   Kansas State    61.67   Texas           145.92   TCU             +15.42
Baylor          79.75   Oklahoma State  62.00   Texas Tech      144.00   West Virginia   +13.42
Kansas          77.83   TCU             62.42   Kansas          143.17   Baylor          +13.33
TCU             77.83   Texas           63.67   TCU             140.25   Kansas State    +12.58
Kansas State    74.25   Texas Tech      63.67   Kansas State    135.92   Kansas          +12.50
Oklahoma State  71.17   Kansas          65.33   Oklahoma State  133.17   Iowa State      +11.82
Iowa State      69.82   Baylor          66.42   Oklahoma        129.67   Oklahoma State   +9.17
Oklahoma        68.33   West Virginia   67.08   Iowa State      127.82   Oklahoma         +7.00

So, the ratings for TCU and Texas Tech are suspect because of the incredibly weak schedules
they've played.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          77.52 ( 22)
Oklahoma        75.16 ( 85)
West Virginia   74.06 (122)
Oklahoma State  73.52 (146)
Baylor          72.16 (213)
Kansas State    71.21 (258)
Iowa State      71.16 (262)
Texas           69.88 (298)
Texas Tech      67.68 (349)
TCU             65.94 (361)

Ken Massey computes a future schedule strength.  The Big 12 is so strong, everybody will
be in the Top 20.

Future Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          43.43 (  1)
Oklahoma        42.58 (  2)
Iowa State      42.53 (  3)
Baylor          42.52 (  4)
West Virginia   42.38 (  5)
Oklahoma State  42.07 (  8)
Kansas State    41.72 (  9)
Texas           41.69 ( 10)
TCU             41.09 ( 17)
Texas Tech      40.86 ( 19)