predictions for Harvard game

Five games worse than you are.  Five games better than you are.  The other twenty
games are who you are.

I led off with that reminder because Kansas has now played three consecutive games
"better than they are".  Or is this really who they are, and the previous games
were worse than they are?  You actually won't know who you are until the end of
the season, but I will note that assuming random scheduling, the 363 Division I
teams should be triply connected by now, which means the computer ratings have
some significance to them.  Kansas has been climbing rapidly in those ratings
these last few games.  The Jayhawks crushed an undefeated Missouri squad, and
dominated a highly-ranked Indiana team led by an all-American.  Maybe the Jayhawks
are trending upward, but these last three games have been so much above expectation
that it's hard to believe that those games represent "who they are".  At some point,
it's reasonable to expect that the Jayhawks will come down to Earth and start playing
some "who you are" games.  With Harvard not being so highly regarded, Kansas might
just lift their foot off the gas, especially in the second half if things are under
control by halftime.  With predicted margins of around 22 points, it would take at
least a 36 point victory to match what's happened these last three games.  That kind
of margin invites more bench play, which is less likely to achieve the same levels
as the starters, so I'm not really expecting a huge better-than-expectation outcome
this time around, though I must say I'd be disappointed if the Jayhawks check in
with a below-expectation performance.

One gets the impression that Harris to Ejiofor lobs have gotten their fair share of
practice time lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see more of those against
Harvard.

Harvard is the more inconsistent team, having played Holy Cross 24 points above
expectation and Howard 24 points below expectation.  Both teams are underrated,
Kansas moreso than Harvard.  Both teams have positive trends and mental toughness
ratings, but only the trend for Kansas is statistically significant.  Harvard did
manage to score 92 points against a winless Elon squad that is near the bottom of
Division I in the Sagarin ratings, but has otherwise managed at most 72 points;
they have the #271 offense according to Pomeroy.  Their defense is their strength,
ranking #103 according to Pomeroy, and they've given up at most 77 points.  Dunkel
in particular is calling for a really low-scoring game of just 125 total points,
while Sagarin has the total a bit under 136 points, though the average of the two
teams' scoring totals is 137.2 points.  Kansas, with the #9 defense, shouldn't have
too much trouble reining in the #271 offense.

It wasn't that long ago that Kansas was projected to have a season record of 20-11,
struggling to earn an at-large bid to the Big Dance.  Now it's up to 24-7.  Some of
that increase has come from convreting fractional predicted wins into full actual
wins, but most has come from a steadily improving Sagarin rating.  Only the Texas 
nd Baylor road games are projected losses at this point.  Even the Kentucky road
game is currently projected to be a 1 point win for Kansas.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      HU      KU      Defensive Stats      HU      KU
Points/Game         66.9    79.8     Opp Points/Game     63.5    65.3
Avg Score Margin    +3.4   +14.5     Opp Effective FG %  46.3    44.7
Assists/Game        12.9    18.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.6    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.6    38.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.1    25.8
Effective FG %      48.8    54.7     Blocks/Game          4.1     4.0
Off Rebound %       30.4    30.6     Steals/Game          8.4     9.7
FTA/FGA            0.332   0.269     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.8    16.1
Turnover %          18.2    15.1

My Stats Comparison        KU           Harvard
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.62           +0.43    
inconsistency         11.57           13.51    
trend                 +2.38 ± 0.85    +0.31 ± 1.57
mental toughness      +0.17 ± 0.35    +0.21 ± 0.77
average total pts      145.09         130.40    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Samuel Silverstein (guard)
most points        Chris Ledium (forward)
most rebounds      Chris Ledium (forward)
most assists       Evan Nelson (guard)
most steals        Chris Ledium (forward)
most blocks        Justice Ajogbor (forward)
most turnovers     Chisom Okpara (forward)
most fouls         Chisom Okpara (forward)

                                                          10-1           8-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Harvard
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +20.99   78   57       93       #  3   # 18    #149   #271
Sagarin Predictor      +20.63   78   58       95.0     #  4   # 18    #158   #271 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +21.92   79   57                #  2   # 18    #158   #271 
Sagarin Recent Games   +20.64   78   58                #  4   # 18    #135   #271
Sagarin Eigenvector    +20.19   78   58       93    
Massey                 +22.00   81   59       96       #  3   #  5    #171   #269
Pomeroy                +21.72   77   55                #  5   # 20    #182   #294
Greenfield             +21.50   79   58                #  5   #  3    #200   #279
Dunkel                 +25.50   75   50                #  3           #159
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21.50   80   58                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +20.43   78   58       96.4     #  5   #  4    #188   #288
Real Time              +32.00   89   57       98.8     #  7   # 49    #110   #237 
Seven Overtimes        +18.00   78   60       87       # 10   # 10    #101   #302
DPPI                   +19.90   79   59       90.1     #  6   # 17    #176   #287 
ESPN BPI               +22.90                 97.3     #  9   # 18    #227   #335
Whitlock               +26.17                          #  5   #  7    #238   #340
Colley Matrix          +20.31                          #  4   # 16    #141   #265
NCAA NET                                               #  5           #152 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  4           #196
Pomeroy offense                                        # 11           #271
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           #103
Pomeroy tempo                                          #103           #223
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.14   79.1 57.3     94.1
scatter                  3.21    3.2  2.4      3.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 24-7
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #296 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.76    -3.76
HOME   #260 North Dakota State          82  59   +26.67    -3.67
NEUT   # 13 Duke                        69  64    +2.71    +2.29
HOME   #164 Southern Utah               82  76   +20.98   -14.98
NEUT   # 35 NC State                    80  74    +6.75    -0.75
NEUT   # 31 Wisconsin                   69  68    +6.05    -5.05
NEUT   #  3 Tennessee                   50  64    -1.09   -12.91
HOME   #258 Texas Southern              87  55   +26.36    +5.64
HOME   # 53 Seton Hall                  91  65   +11.72   +14.28
AWAY   # 70 Missouri                    95  67    +7.49   +20.51
HOME   # 15 Indiana                     84  62    +5.83   +16.17
HOME   #158 Harvard                              +20.63             0.950
HOME   # 29 Oklahoma State                        +8.70             0.781
AWAY   # 28 Texas Tech                            +2.71             0.597
AWAY   # 17 West Virginia                         +0.54             0.522
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                             +10.41             0.820
HOME   # 39 Iowa State                           +10.24             0.805
AWAY   # 55 Kansas State                          +5.85             0.719
HOME   # 47 TCU                                  +10.55             0.831
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                -0.58             0.479
AWAY   # 19 Kentucky                              +0.80             0.528
HOME   # 55 Kansas State                         +11.81             0.879
AWAY   # 39 Iowa State                            +4.28             0.640
HOME   #  8 Texas                                 +4.67             0.677
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                              +4.45             0.652
AWAY   # 29 Oklahoma State                        +2.74             0.597
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                +5.38             0.690
AWAY   # 47 TCU                                   +4.59             0.662
HOME   # 17 West Virginia                         +6.50             0.742
HOME   # 28 Texas Tech                            +8.67             0.784
AWAY   #  8 Texas                                 -1.29             0.449

Here is Harvard's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Morehouse                   68  63
NEUT   #143 Louisiana                   61  75    -0.83   -13.17
AWAY   #325 Elon                        92  77    +7.45    +7.55
AWAY   #244 Northeastern                70  69    +1.86    -0.86
HOME   #213 Siena                       69  59    +6.23    +3.77
HOME   #151 Loyola-Chicago              61  55    +2.63    +3.37
AWAY   #173 Fordham                     60  68    -2.23    -5.77
AWAY   #347 Holy Cross                  72  38   +10.05   +23.95
HOME   #113 Massachusetts               68  71    +0.19    -3.19
Div3        Tufts                       76  59
HOME   #315 Howard                      54  66   +12.47   -24.47
AWAY   # 94 UC Irvine                   62  57    -8.08   +13.08
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -20.63             0.050