predictions for Missouri game

The NCAA is now issuing NET rankings for this season.  Kansas is currently #16.
Big 12 members ahead of Kansas include Texas at #13 and West Virginia at #9.
Future member Houston is #1.  Our only loss is to #4 Tennessee.

Whitlock is finally on board for this season.  However, for both Whitlock and
Colley, I'm still using the scaling factors from last season that convert from
ratings units to points.  Unless they've changed their algorithms, the scaling
factors from one season to the next ought to be similar.  I'll update the scaling
factors just before the beginning of the conference season, after the teams are
all well-connected and the ratings have become more stable.

Speaking of teams being connected, the average Division I team has played 8.2
games, so with random scheduling, they are probably close to being connected,
but not quite.  After today's action, chances are the teams will become
connected, so well-connected status ought to be in place by the start of
conference play late this month.

In the meantime, Real Time is still not ready for Prime Time.  Real Time has
the win-loss record for Kansas as 10-1.  Why?  Apparently we played Stanford
on December 3, winning 89 to 74, and Kansas City on December 6, winning 105
to 62.  Go figure.

It used to be the case that I'd prepare one of these summaries for a Missouri
game, and then I'd advise just ignoring it all.  The intensity of the rivalry
trumped what was on paper, so you might as well throw it all out.  Is that
still true?  The intensity of the rivalry might have ratcheted down a couple
of notches, now that the two teams are in different conferences and had a long
hiatus in games, but if we're going to throw out what's on paper this time
around, it's more likely because of the disparity in strengths of schedule.
We just don't know how good this Missouri team really is.  Indeed, Sagarin
has the Tigers with a weakest schedule in all of Division I (363rd out of
363 teams).

Some of the prgnosticators think the Tigers are very good; they're picking
the Tigers to win.  Real Time, with its enormous home court advantage, is
picking Missouri to win by 4.  Seven Overtimes is picking Missouri to win by
1.  Whitlock's margin is positive, but close enough to zero to make it an
overtime game.  Dunkel is picking Missouri to win by 1.  Even those
prognosticators picking Kansas aren't doing so by much.  Massey is the most
optimistic with his prediction of Kansas by 7.

A couple of things stand out about Missouri.  First, they haven't really been
tested.  Yes, they've played a couple of top tier teams, but needed ovretime
to defeat Wichita State on the road.  If you think of a tournament-level
opponent being ranked in the top 64 or thereabouts, they haven't played any
tournament-level opponents.  Second, they like to play FAST.  Pomeroy has them
with the #4 tempo.  They've been averaging almost 167 total points.  They've
scored 105 points twice.  Their low-water mark was 82 points against Lindenwood.
Then again, Pomeroy says that Missouri has played the #358 schedule in terms of
opponents' defense.  It's easy to score a lot against weak defenses.

Another wild card is that Cam Martin is reportedly available to play against
Missouri.  That gives us a big body, but likely a rusty big body, so it's hard
to say just how much he'll matter.  But Pettiford is also available to play.
I was surprised by that announcement, mainly because I was under the impression
that he had a hamstring issue, but Self talked about his groin.  Was he confusing
him with McCullar?  But this is about as whole a team as we've had this season,
which adds some element of uncertainty.  I hope playing Martin doesn't hurt
because of rust; the real question is, how much can he help?

Because of all the naysayers, the average of the various predictions calls for
only a 2.5 point win for Kansas, though the scatter is 3 points.  We can play
fast, and Missouri obviously likes to play that way, so I wouldn't be surprised
by a game in the 80s.  Neither would Sagarin, who is predicting 168 total points.
Yes, the Jayhawks can play Missouri's game.  The question is, can Missouri stop
the Kansas game better than Kansas is able to stop the Missouri game?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      MU      KU      Defensive Stats      MU      KU
Points/Game         93.0    77.7     Opp Points/Game     73.8    65.4
Avg Score Margin   +19.2   +12.2     Opp Effective FG %  49.9    44.8
Assists/Game        21.6    18.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.6    10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.8    39.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.1    25.8
Effective FG %      59.0    53.2     Blocks/Game          3.7     4.3
Off Rebound %       32.8    31.1     Steals/Game         14.1     8.6
FTA/FGA            0.239   0.284     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.1    15.9
Turnover %          13.2    14.8

My Stats Comparison        KU              MU
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.26           +2.36    
inconsistency          9.17           12.59    
trend                 +1.17 ± 1.19    +1.17 ± 1.68
mental toughness      -0.05 ± 0.30    +0.37 ± 0.46
average total pts      143.11         166.78    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       D'Moi Hodge (guard)
most points        D'Moi Hodge (guard)
most rebounds      Kobe Brown (forward)
most assists       Sean East II (guard)
most steals        D'Moi Hodge (guard)
most blocks        Kobe Brown (forward)
most turnovers     Isiaih Mosley (guard)
most fouls         Sean East II (guard)

                                                           8-1           9-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Missouri
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.31   87   81.5     68       # 11   # 59    # 62   #363
Sagarin Predictor       +4.94   87   82       67.3     # 12   # 59    # 61   #363 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.52   86   82                #  5   # 59    # 50   #363 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.11   87   81                # 10   # 59    # 68   #363
Sagarin Eigenvector     +3.59   86   82       63    
Massey                  +7.00   78   71       70       #  4   #  8    # 41   #304
Pomeroy                 +3.36   79   75                # 11   # 71    # 50   #360
Greenfield              +3.50   79   75                # 15   # 12    # 50   #246
Dunkel                  -1.00   83   84                #  3           # 37
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   79   75                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +4.66   84   79       64.6     # 14   # 13    # 63   #295
Real Time               -4.00   76   80       37.6     #  6   #213    # 72   #284 
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   77   78       47       # 38   # 31    # 11   #355
DPPI                    -0.10   79.5 80       49.6     # 19   # 48    # 67   #331 
ESPN BPI                +2.00                 57.1     # 21   # 51    # 69   #360
Whitlock                +0.10                          # 15   # 26    # 39   #217
Colley Matrix           +0.94                          #  9   # 44    # 27   #357
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 40 
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 43
Pomeroy offense                                        # 23           # 12
Pomeroy defense                                        # 16           #125
Pomeroy tempo                                          #148           #  4
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.55   82.0 79.0     58.2
scatter                  2.98    4.1  3.7     11.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 22-9
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #292 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +26.39    -1.39
HOME   #263 North Dakota State          82  59   +24.60    -1.60
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        69  64    -1.09    +6.09
HOME   #170 Southern Utah               82  76   +19.64   -13.64
NEUT   # 42 NC State                    80  74    +5.51    +0.49
NEUT   # 41 Wisconsin                   69  68    +5.26    -4.26
NEUT   #  2 Tennessee                   50  64    -2.56   -11.44
HOME   #247 Texas Southern              87  55   +23.65    +8.35
HOME   # 62 Seton Hall                  91  65   +10.94   +15.06
AWAY   # 61 Missouri                              +4.94             0.673
HOME   #  8 Indiana                               +1.94             0.576
HOME   #151 Harvard                              +18.23             0.964
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +7.56             0.774
AWAY   # 30 Texas Tech                            +1.04             0.542
AWAY   # 18 West Virginia                         -1.66             0.424
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                              +8.11             0.787
HOME   # 44 Iowa State                            +8.70             0.790
AWAY   # 67 Kansas State                          +5.57             0.737
HOME   # 57 TCU                                  +10.49             0.858
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                -3.94             0.342
AWAY   # 15 Kentucky                              -2.35             0.407
HOME   # 67 Kansas State                         +11.55             0.905
AWAY   # 44 Iowa State                            +2.72             0.599
HOME   # 11 Texas                                 +2.63             0.617
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                              +2.13             0.583
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +1.58             0.563
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                +2.04             0.584
AWAY   # 57 TCU                                   +4.51             0.677
HOME   # 18 West Virginia                         +4.32             0.691
HOME   # 30 Texas Tech                            +7.02             0.762
AWAY   # 11 Texas                                 -3.35             0.352

Here is Missouri's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #318 Southern Indiana            97  91   +20.56   -14.56
HOME   #172 Pennsylvania                92  85   +11.71    -4.71
HOME   #359 Lindenwood                  82  53   +26.54    +2.46
HOME   #112 Southern Illinois          105  80    +7.39   +17.61
HOME   #363 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      83  62   +28.56    -7.56
HOME   #228 Coastal Carolina            89  51   +14.83   +23.17
HOME   #361 Houston Christian          105  69   +27.17    +8.83
AWAY   # 88 Wichita State               88  84    -0.57    +4.57
HOME   #244 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     96  89   +15.60    -8.60
HOME   # 12 Kansas                                -4.94             0.327