predictions for Tennessee game

Finally, a tip-off at a sane time.  Yesterday's semi-final tipped before the
sun was even up in Hawaii.  That's just not right.

That the score was so low in the Wisconsin game was to be expected.  I hinted
at that by noting how nobody scored 60 or more points against the Badgers.
Of course, those opponents don't have the Kansas offense.  At least we managed
to score 63 in regulation, a high-water mark for Wisconsin opponents.

We should expect another low-scoring affair against Tennessee.  Maybe not quite
as low as against Wisconsin, as the Vols did allow 78 against Colorado, but
otherwise, the Trojans only managed 62 in regulation, and the other three opponents
scored at most 50 points.  Pomeroy has Tennessee with the #2 defense.  This game
will be good practice for our two conference games against Pomeroy's #1 defense,
Texas.

The Colorado game was played in Nashville, but I'm counting it as a home game
for Tennessee.  Somehow, despite losing that game, the Vols have achieved a
lofty rating.  Meanwhile, Kansas keeps winning, but the Jayhawks' ranking keeps
falling.  At least a few of the computers have Kansas ahead of Tennessee.

The thing about Tennessee is their inconsistency.  They played 20 points above
expectation against Butler, 14 points above expectation against Gulf Coast, and
20 points below expectation against Colorado.  By comparison, the least consistent
game for Kansas came against Southern Utah, in which the Jayhawks played about
12 points below expectation; the other five games have been within 5 points of
expectation.  That "expectation", of course, is based on the current rating, in
which Kansas is down to #19 (Sagarin overall), and that is leading Sagarin to
pick Tennessee in a close game.  At least Kansas is favored by his Golden Mean
rating method, but Pomeroy, Greenfield, and Vegas are all picking Tennessee.
Fortunately, Massey and Dunkel have faith in the Jayhawks.  Seven Overtimes
only has the 60-60 template in place for all of today's games, so I'm ignoring
it, but hey, that actually sounds like it could be about right, as most of the
prognosticators think it'll be in the mid 60s.  I don't trust Whitlock's margin,
as that is based on last season's ratings; Whitlock still isn't on board for
this season.  And although Colley is on board, he hasn't updated his ratings
since November 21, so neither of the Battle 4 Atlantis games are included in
his ratings.  Still, I'll take his positive margin to offset the BPI's
predicted loss for Kansas.

The average of the 14 prognostications happens to favor Kansas by 0.15 points.
However, there are only 11 score predictions, and the average favors
Tennessee by 0.4 points.  It should be a close game, unless Tennessee has one
of those below expectation outings resulting from their inconsistency.

It's worth noting that the Vols' leading scorer has missed the last two games,
yet they won both.  I don't know his availability for today's game, but they
did okay without him.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Tenn     KU      Defensive Stats     Tenn     KU
Points/Game         73.2    78.5     Opp Points/Game     56.4    67.5
Avg Score Margin   +16.8   +11.0     Opp Effective FG %  43.1    42.9
Assists/Game        16.0    18.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.0    10.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.2    42.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.8    28.7
Effective FG %      46.1    52.2     Blocks/Game          3.6     5.3
Off Rebound %       32.4    30.3     Steals/Game         12.4     7.0
FTA/FGA            0.417   0.249     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.0    15.8
Turnover %          16.2    14.3

My Stats Comparison        KU             Tenn
===================   =============   ============
performance           -1.77           +3.13    
inconsistency          5.73           15.70    
trend                 -0.59 ± 1.50    +3.60 ± 5.34
mental toughness      +0.20 ± 0.24    -0.05 ± 0.89
average total pts      146.00         129.60    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most points        Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most rebounds      Josiah-Jordan James (guard)
most assists       Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most steals        Santiago Vescovi (guard)
most blocks        Olivier Nkamhoua (forward)
most turnovers     Zakai Zeigker (guard)
most fouls         Olivier Nkamhoua (forward)

Guard Josiah-Jordan James (leading scorer, leading rebounder) missed the last two
games with a knee injury.  It hasn't been stated whether he'll be able to play
today's game.  Guard DJ Jefferson has redshirted this season so is unlikely to play.
But hey, Kansas pulled the redshirt off Agbaji a few years ago, so there are no
guarantees.

                                                           6-0           4-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Tennessee
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -0.47   65   66       48       # 19   #111    # 16   # 91
Sagarin Predictor       -0.29   65   66       49.0     # 15   #111    # 13   # 91 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.82   67   64                #  4   #111    # 18   # 91 
Sagarin Recent Games    -1.71   65   66                # 22   #111    # 17   # 91
Sagarin Eigenvector     -0.84   65   66       47    
Massey                  +2.00   71   69       54       #  1   # 11    # 15   # 35
Pomeroy                 -2.82   64   67                # 16   #124    #  6   #130
Greenfield              -1.50   66   68                # 24   # 17    #  6   # 16
Dunkel                  +3.00   71   68                #  2           # 14
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   66   69                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -0.80   65   66       47.2     # 24   # 21    #  7   # 24
Real Time                                              #  5   #190    # 18   #161 
Seven Overtimes                                        #  9   # 40    # 11   #112
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                -3.90                 35.2     # 17   # 88    #  6   #159
Whitlock        ***     +1.31                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +7.82                          # 30   #306    #118   #201
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 26
Pomeroy offense                                        # 27           # 28
Pomeroy defense                                        # 12           #  2
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 84           #226
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +0.15   66.4 66.8     46.7
scatter                  3.03    2.4  1.5      6.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #315 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +27.52    -2.52
HOME   #218 North Dakota State          82  59   +21.55    +1.45
NEUT   # 19 Duke                        69  64    +0.63    +4.37
HOME   #155 Southern Utah               82  76   +17.94   -11.94
NEUT   # 39 NC State                    80  74    +4.69    +1.31
NEUT   # 37 Wisconsin                   69  68    +4.30    -3.30
NEUT   # 13 Tennessee                             -0.29             0.490
HOME   #231 Texas Southern                       +22.49             0.994
HOME   # 31 Seton Hall                            +6.29             0.763
AWAY   # 64 Missouri                              +4.90             0.705
HOME   #  9 Indiana                               +2.37             0.607
HOME   #173 Harvard                              +18.95             0.985
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma State                       +11.07             0.899
AWAY   # 27 Texas Tech                            -0.47             0.478
AWAY   # 29 West Virginia                         -0.33             0.481
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                              +7.42             0.799
HOME   # 38 Iowa State                            +7.78             0.792
AWAY   # 51 Kansas State                          +3.31             0.677
HOME   # 91 TCU                                  +13.85             0.951
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -5.13             0.266
AWAY   #  8 Kentucky                              -4.23             0.312
HOME   # 51 Kansas State                          +9.65             0.910
AWAY   # 38 Iowa State                            +1.44             0.560
HOME   #  5 Texas                                 +1.46             0.580
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                              +1.08             0.549
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma State                        +4.73             0.707
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +1.21             0.559
AWAY   # 91 TCU                                   +7.51             0.815
HOME   # 29 West Virginia                         +6.01             0.804
HOME   # 27 Texas Tech                            +5.87             0.756
AWAY   #  5 Texas                                 -4.88             0.250

Here is Tennessee's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #338 Tennessee Tech              75  43   +30.25    +1.75
HOME   # 40 Colorado                    66  78    +8.25   -20.25
HOME   #127 Florida Gulf Coast          81  50   +16.71   +14.29
NEUT   # 43 Butler                      71  45    +5.57   +20.43
NEUT   # 59 Southern California         73  66    +7.57    -0.57
NEUT   # 15 Kansas                                +0.29             0.510