predictions for Wisconsin game

Sagarin just posted his latest ratings and predictions, less than an
hour before tip-off.  I'm posting this with minimal commentary or
proofreading.

Wisconsin has yet to give up more than 60 points.  Dayton managed only
42 points against the Badgers.

In the latest Seven Overtimes rankings, Wisconsin is two spots ahead of
Kansas.  Today's game is on a neutral court.  That means Seven Overtimes
ought to be picking Wisconsin to win the game.  Instead, Bashuk has
Kansas by 1, 65 to 64.  Go figure.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Wisc     KU      Defensive Stats     Wisc     KU
Points/Game         61.0    80.4     Opp Points/Game     49.0    67.4
Avg Score Margin   +12.0   +13.0     Opp Effective FG %  37.6    42.28
Assists/Game         9.5    19.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.0    10.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.3    40.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.5    28.2
Effective FG %      42.3    53.3     Blocks/Game          2.8     6.0
Off Rebound %       25.4    30.2     Steals/Game          8.3     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.310   0.233     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.5    15.6
Turnover %          14.3    14.0

My Stats Comparison        KU             Wisc
===================   =============   ============
performance           -1.83           -0.94    
inconsistency          6.64            9.27    
trend                 -0.80 ± 2.38    -4.41 ± 4.00
mental toughness      +0.29 ± 0.29    +0.40 ± 0.55
average total pts      147.80         110.00    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Chucky Hepburn (guard)
most points        Tyler Wahl (forward)
most rebounds      Steven Crowl (forward)
most assists       Chucky Hepburn (guard)
most steals        Chucky Hepburn (guard)
most blocks        Steven Crowl (forward)
most turnovers     Tyler Wahl (forward)
most fouls         Tyler Wahl (forward)

Guard Jahcobi Neath didn't play against Dayton, and it's unclear if he'll be
available for today's game.  He's ninth on the team in minutes played.

                                                           5-0           4-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Wisconsin
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.13   63   58       67       # 15   #176    # 39   #255
Sagarin Predictor       +5.90   63   57       76.8     #  8   #176    # 41   #255 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.55   63   57                #  3   #176    # 31   #255 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.53   63   57                # 21   #176    # 47   #255
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.42   62   58       65    
Massey                  +5.00   69   64       67       #  1   # 35    # 20   #145
Pomeroy                 +5.47   67   62                # 14   #179    # 44   #216
Greenfield              +7.00   69   62                # 23   # 19    # 51   # 48
Dunkel                  +3.00   60   57                #  2           # 38
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.00   69   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +3.79   64   60       63.4     # 19   # 17    # 41   # 73
Real Time                                              #  5   #209    # 21   #132 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   65   64       52       # 29   # 81    # 27   # 91
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +3.50                 62.4     # 19   #211    # 40   #243
Whitlock        ***     +6.77                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +0.41                          # 30   #306    # 38   #263
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 32
Pomeroy offense                                        # 28           #121
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 12
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 71           #292
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.56   64.8 59.9     64.8
scatter                  1.93    3.1  2.9      7.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 22-9
record, assuming the higher rated teams advance in the Battle 4 Atlantis:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #310 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +27.74    -2.74
HOME   #212 North Dakota State          82  59   +22.04    +0.96
NEUT   #  7 Duke                        69  64    -0.19    +5.19
HOME   #155 Southern Utah               82  76   +18.56   -12.56
NEUT   # 44 NC State                    80  74    +5.98    +0.02
NEUT   # 41 Wisconsin                             +5.90             0.768

NEUT   # 40 Butler                                +5.81             0.739
NEUT   # 11 Tennessee                             +0.16             0.507
NEUT   # 76 BYU                                   +9.84             0.861
NEUT   # 63 Southern California                   +8.54             0.826

HOME   #227 Texas Southern                       +22.86             0.994
HOME   # 31 Seton Hall                            +7.06             0.781
AWAY   # 64 Missouri                              +5.39             0.717
HOME   # 10 Indiana                               +3.31             0.642
HOME   #182 Harvard                              +20.01             0.986
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma State                       +11.72             0.904
AWAY   # 28 Texas Tech                            +0.12             0.505
AWAY   # 25 West Virginia                         -0.25             0.487
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma                              +9.83             0.858
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                            +8.45             0.805
AWAY   # 51 Kansas State                          +3.94             0.699
HOME   # 93 TCU                                  +14.56             0.952
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -4.65             0.293
AWAY   # 14 Kentucky                              -2.88             0.374
HOME   # 51 Kansas State                         +10.34             0.914
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            +2.05             0.583
HOME   #  4 Texas                                 +2.39             0.623
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma                              +3.43             0.646
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma State                        +5.32             0.723
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +1.75             0.581
AWAY   # 93 TCU                                   +8.16             0.825
HOME   # 25 West Virginia                         +6.15             0.797
HOME   # 28 Texas Tech                            +6.52             0.771
AWAY   #  4 Texas                                 -4.01             0.299

Here is Wisconsin's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #259 South Dakota                85  59   +18.78    +7.22
HOME   # 61 Stanford                    60  50    +5.76    +4.24
HOME   #338 Green Bay                   56  45   +24.74   -13.74
NEUT   # 59 Dayton                      43  42    +2.49    -1.49
NEUT   #  8 Kansas                                -5.90             0.232