predictions for North Carolina State game

Talk about early tips.  7:00 a.m. Hawaii time.    It's already 3 a.m. and Sagarin
doesn't have his predictions up yet.  He's the only one I'm really waiting for.
When it finally does get posted, I'm likely to update this summary, post it, and
get a few hours of sleep, but without adding much more chit chat.  I will note
that not-ready-for-prime-time Real Time has it as a home game for Kansas, and
Real Time likes to use a large home court advantage, something like 8 points in
prior seasons, so I'd take that 18 point margin with a grain of salt.  Whitlock's
18.5 point margin is based on last season's ratings, as he is not yet on board
for this season.  The only "legitimate" prediction for a margin that large is
Dunkel, who is picking the Jayhawks by 17.5 points.

Nobody has been impressed by the Wolfpack's schedule.  The highest rated team
they've played is #231 Canpbell.  Save for the Duke game, Kansas hasn't done
that much better.  We do have Self back, however.  How many points is that worth?

Finally, just before 5 a.m. Sagarin posted his latest ratings.  His peculiar
eigenvector analysis is predicting a Kansas loss by 4 points.  Everybody else
disagrees.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     NCST     KU      Defensive Stats     NCST     KU
Points/Game         88.3    80.5     Opp Points/Game     63.5    65.8
Avg Score Margin   +24.8   +14.8     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    42.2
Assists/Game        17.0    20.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.5    11.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.5    41.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     27.5    28.3
Effective FG %      58.9    54.0     Blocks/Game          4.8     7.5
Off Rebound %       28.3    32.1     Steals/Game         11.0     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.251   0.176     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.0    15.3
Turnover %          13.2    13.6

My Stats Comparison        KU             NCST
===================   =============   ============
performance           -2.28           +5.57    
inconsistency          7.36           19.45    
trend                 -2.55 ± 3.60   -10.73 ± 7.47
mental toughness      +0.28 ± 0.39    +0.01 ± 3.00
average total pts      146.25         151.75    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Terquavion Smith (guard)
most points        Terquavion Smith (guard)
most rebounds      Dusan Mahorcic (forward)
most assists       Terquavion Smith (guard)
most steals        Terquavion Smith (guard)
most blocks        two-way tie
most turnovers     Terquavion Smith (guard)
most fouls         D. J. Burns (forward)

Seems rather one-dimensional.  Put Marcus Garrett on Smith, and we'll be fine.
Oh, wait...

                                                           4-0           4-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        NC State 
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +6.48   79   73       71       # 11   #269    # 53   #351
Sagarin Predictor       +5.65   79   73       65.0     # 10   #269    # 46   #351 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.98   80   72                #  4   #269    # 52   #351 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.33   79   73                # 17   #269    # 55   #351
Sagarin Eigenvector     -3.92   74   78       37    
Massey                 +10.00   79   69       79       #  1   # 39    # 60   #310
Pomeroy                 +8.83   79   70                # 11   #260    # 69   #348
Greenfield              +8.50   80   72                # 23   # 27    # 54   #299
Dunkel                 +17.50   81   64                #  2           # 80
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.50   80   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +6.09   77   71       69.2     # 14   # 20    # 44   #316
Real Time              +18.00   83   65       81.1     #  5   #205    # 57   #198 
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   77   72       56       # 38   #131    # 10   #331
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +3.50                 62.4     # 17   #208    # 56   #350
Whitlock        ***    +18.53                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +0.24                          # 30   #306    # 34   #313
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 59
Pomeroy offense                                        # 28           # 46
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           # 97
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 72           # 53
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.95   79.0 71.0     65.1
scatter                  6.07    2.2  3.6     14.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 22-9
record, assuming the higher rated teams advance in the Battle 4 Atlantis:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #314 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +27.60    -2.60
HOME   #216 North Dakota State          82  59   +21.93    +1.07
NEUT   # 13 Duke                        69  64    +0.23    +4.77
HOME   #156 Southern Utah               82  76   +18.35   -12.35
NEUT   # 46 NC State                              +5.65             0.650
       ----- one of the following two games -----
NEUT   # 38 Wisconsin                             +5.13             0.708
NEUT   # 59 Dayton                                +7.88             0.730
       ----- one of the following four games -----
NEUT   # 22 Tennessee                             +1.85             0.578
NEUT   # 35 Butler                                +4.49             0.684
NEUT   # 58 BYU                                   +7.41             0.786
NEUT   # 69 Southern California                   +8.78             0.826
       -----
HOME   #225 Texas Southern                       +22.61             0.992
HOME   # 31 Seton Hall                            +6.88             0.769
AWAY   # 78 Missouri                              +6.47             0.749
HOME   #  6 Indiana                               +2.40             0.601
HOME   #182 Harvard                              +19.77             0.983
HOME   # 61 Oklahoma State                       +11.16             0.886
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                            -0.61             0.473
AWAY   # 27 West Virginia                         -0.40             0.479
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma                              +9.78             0.850
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                            +7.93             0.784
AWAY   # 51 Kansas State                          +3.36             0.665
HOME   # 97 TCU                                  +14.55             0.947
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                                -5.52             0.266
AWAY   #  9 Kentucky                              -3.33             0.359
HOME   # 51 Kansas State                          +9.82             0.893
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            +1.47             0.558
HOME   #  4 Texas                                 +1.54             0.577
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma                              +3.32             0.638
AWAY   # 61 Oklahoma State                        +4.70             0.694
HOME   #  3 Baylor                                +0.94             0.542
AWAY   # 97 TCU                                   +8.09             0.815
HOME   # 27 West Virginia                         +6.06             0.783
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                            +5.85             0.741
AWAY   #  4 Texas                                 -4.92             0.268

Here is North Carolina State's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #273 Austin Peay                 99  50   +19.65   +29.35
HOME   #162 Campbell                    73  67   +13.08    -7.08
HOME   #280 Fla. International         107  74   +19.83   +13.17
HOME   #331 Elon                        74  63   +24.18   -13.18
NEUT   # 10 Kansas                                -5.65             0.350