predictions for Southern Utah game

Today's opponent is a juggernaut!  In their last three games, they've
scored an average of 115 points and won by an average of 55 points.
Yikes!

And their strength of schedule is ranked #69 by Sagarin, compared to
the Jayhawks' #226 schedule that included Duke.  Yikes!

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Until you take a closer look at Southern Utah's schedule, and then it
becomes clear what the situation really is.  Those lofty scoring totals
and margins of victory have come against cupcakes; imagine that, a
cupcake playing other cupcakes.  But shouldn't that be a more level
playing field?  Not when you're stepping outside the ranks of the NCAA
Division I.  The Thunderbirds' last three games have come against a
winless Division III opponent, namely the University of La Verne, based
in La Verne, California; a winless NAIA school, namely the University
of Saint Katherine, located in San Marcos, California; and a winless
NCCAA Division I school, namely Bethesda University, which is located
in Anaheim, California, not Maryland.

Their sole NCAA Division I game was their season opener against #91
New Mexico, hence the lofty strength of schedule rating, given that
Sagarin is only looking at games against Division I opponents.  Massey's
ratings may not span all of college basketball, but he at least tracks
the scores for these other athletics associations, and he has Southern
Utah's strength of schedule way down at #356, and that's out of 363
Division I teams.

So, as you can see, a single Division I opponent isn't much to go on to
predict today's game.  They did lose to New Mexico, but only by 8 points,
so it would be a mistake to overlook the Thunderbirds.  It is clear that
they like to play uptempo games.  While Kansas is a defensive-minded
team, the Jayhawks should be able to match the speed with which Southern
Utah likes to play, while also keeping the Thunderbird juggernaut in
check.

Real Time is really screwed up.  He still has the overall record for
Kansas as 1-0, while showing a home record of 2-0, and a road record
of 1-0.  Apparently Real Time still thinks the Champions Classic game
was played in Cameron.

Seven Overtimes is the most optimistic of the bunch, calling for a
34 point win for Kansas, with the Jayhawks approaching the century
mark with 95 points.  That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.
Colley is the pessimist with just a 15 point margin for the Jayhawks.
Then again, Colley has Kansas ranked #71, and he hasn't updated his
rankings since November 13, so the win over Duke is being ignored.
It's pretty clear that Colley isn't using any bias from the previous
season; Missouri is his #7 ranked team!  The BPI is the second-most
pessimistic at just 16.5 points.  Then again, the BPI seems to have a
lot of inertia; the win over Duke elevated the Jayhawks' ranking from
#14 to only #13.

The average margin using 16 different prognostications is 22 points,
suggesting a score of 87 to 65 in favor of Kansas.  Don't be surprised
if the total is a bit higher than that.

Things will be a lot more interesting next week with the Battle 4
Atlantis, followed by one more cupcake in Texas Southern, closing
out non-conference play (save for the SEC Challenge game in late
January) with a middle-tier Harvard team.  The rest of the schedule
is dynamite, including a rugged Big 12.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      SU      KU      Defensive Stats      SU      KU
Points/Game         81.0    80.0     Opp Points/Game     89.0    62.3
Avg Score Margin    -8.0   +17.7     Opp Effective FG %  54.2    41.5
Assists/Game        14.0    22.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.0    13.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.0    41.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     27.0    26.7
Effective FG %      55.3    53.6     Blocks/Game          2.0     8.0
Off Rebound %       36.1    38.1     Steals/Game          4.0     7.0
FTA/FGA            0.197   0.154     Personal Fouls/Gm   30.0    15.7
Turnover %          21.8    12.8

It's clear that the Southern Utah stats are based on their single Division I
game.

My Stats Comparison        KU            S Utah
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.27           +1.77    
inconsistency          4.52             .      
trend                 +4.51 ± 0.28      .   ±  .  
mental toughness      +0.28 ± 0.08      .   ±  .  
average total pts      142.33         170.00    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tevian Jones (guard)
most points        Tevian Jones (guard)
most rebounds      Maizen Fausett (forward)
most assists       Drake Allen (guard)
most steals        three-way tie
most blocks        Maizen Fausett (forward)
most turnovers     Amound Anderson (guard)
most fouls         Parsa Fallah (center)

                                                           3-0           3-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      South. Utah
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +22.93   89   66       94       #  4   #226    #212   # 69
Sagarin Predictor      +22.03   89   67       97.7     #  4   #226    #202   # 69 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +23.85   90   66                #  3   #226    #223   # 69 
Sagarin Recent Games   +25.20   90   67                #  7   #226    #208   # 69
Sagarin Eigenvector    +25.00   90   65       95    
Massey                 +19.00   84   65       92       #  1   # 36    #191   #356
Pomeroy                +21.83   85   63                #  8   #244    #167   # 91
Greenfield             +21.50   87   66                # 13   # 15    #134   #294
Dunkel                 +26.50   83   57                #  2           #170
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21.50   87   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +21.61   86   65       95.9     #  5   # 10    #162   #186
Real Time              +19.00   83   64       83.8     #  5   #204    #254   # 13 
Seven Overtimes        +34.00   95   61       92       # 25   #105    #266   # 65
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +16.50                 90.9     # 13   #185    #147   #258
Whitlock        ***    +22.92                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +14.98                          # 71   #326    #241   # 18
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  4           #173
Pomeroy offense                                        # 18           #126
Pomeroy defense                                        #  7           #229
Pomeroy tempo                                          #123           # 72
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.40   87.5 64.5     92.7
scatter                  4.35    3.4  2.8      4.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 23-8
record, assuming the higher rated teams advance in the Battle 4 Atlantis:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #316 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.08    -4.08
HOME   #215 North Dakota State          82  59   +23.05    -0.05
NEUT   #  5 Duke                        69  64    +0.06    +4.94
HOME   #202 Southern Utah                        +22.03             0.977
NEUT   # 38 NC State                              +5.86             0.703
       ----- one of the following two games -----
NEUT   # 35 Wisconsin                             +5.44             0.690
NEUT   # 56 Dayton                                +8.30             0.775
       ----- one of the following four games -----
NEUT   # 23 Tennessee                             +3.59             0.628
NEUT   # 43 Butler                                +6.75             0.730
NEUT   # 59 BYU                                   +8.79             0.788
NEUT   # 63 Southern California                   +9.23             0.799
       -----
HOME   #234 Texas Southern                       +24.36             0.987
HOME   # 37 Seton Hall                            +8.90             0.791
AWAY   # 82 Missouri                              +8.06             0.768
HOME   #  7 Indiana                               +3.54             0.626
HOME   #155 Harvard                              +19.59             0.963
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma State                        +9.12             0.796
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            +0.63             0.523
AWAY   # 32 West Virginia                         +2.12             0.576
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma                             +11.61             0.854
HOME   # 39 Iowa State                            +9.00             0.793
AWAY   # 60 Kansas State                          +5.89             0.704
HOME   # 78 TCU                                  +13.77             0.895
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -4.95             0.326
AWAY   #  9 Kentucky                              -2.17             0.422
HOME   # 60 Kansas State                         +12.05             0.863
AWAY   # 39 Iowa State                            +2.84             0.602
HOME   #  6 Texas                                 +3.43             0.622
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma                              +5.45             0.690
AWAY   # 40 Oklahoma State                        +2.96             0.606
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +1.21             0.544
AWAY   # 78 TCU                                   +7.61             0.755
HOME   # 32 West Virginia                         +8.28             0.774
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            +6.79             0.731
AWAY   #  6 Texas                                 -2.73             0.402

Here is Southern Utah's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 91 New Mexico                  81  89    -9.77    +1.77
Div3        La Verne                   117  55
NAIA        St. Katherine               91  48
NCCAA1      Bethesda                   126  67
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -22.03             0.023