predictions for Duke game

Predicting today's game is difficult, because there is not much to go on.  Both
teams have won two home games against cupcakes.  Both teams will be without their
Hall of Fame coach, though for different reasons.

The more reliable of the prognosticators have it as a close game, a one-possession
affair, meaning it would be easy to go either way.

Dolphin is now on board for this season, as is Colley, though it appears that
Colley doesn't use any bias from last season, as his top teams are San Diego
State, Mississippi State, and Nevada.  Duke is way down at #45, and Kansas is
even lower at #71, according to Colley.

Real Time is on board for this season, but Real Time still isn't ready for Prime
Time.  Once again, the "Scouting" prediction of 73 to 84 is inconsistent with the
Gamer prediction of 71 to 84, where one can see that each team has a record of 1-0,
while at the same time having a home record of 2-0!  Also, Real Time has the game
at Duke, not at a neutral site.  No wonder Real Time has the most pessimistic
prediction, with Kansas losing by 13 points, especially considering his past
practice of using a large home court advantage.

Dunkel isn't quite as bizarre, but when you have a game between a #2 ranked
Team A and a #6 ranked Team B on a neutral court, you would expect Team A to
be favored.  Nope.  Dunkel is picking Team B to win by 2 points.  Go figure.
Oh, and Team B in this case is Duke.

Seven Overtimes has rankings for this season, but all 51 games today have
predicted scores of 60-60, obviously a placeholder, not a real prediction.

Aside from Real Time, the most optimistic and the most pessimistic predictions
both come from Sagarin.  His Recent Games method favors Duke by 5, whereas his
peculiar eigenvector analysis favors Kansas by 6.  The Overall, Predictor, and
Golden Mean methods all have margins of less than 2 points, with Overall and
Predictor favoring Duke, and Golden Mean favoring Kansas.

Kansas has the #300 strength of schedule, while Duke is #329.  I don't like
seeing numbers that low.  Starting the season with the Champions Classic
tended to keep those numbers lofty, even after some cupcakes followed.  At
least we'll see a boost in those numbers in tomorrow's updated ratings.

Duke has allowed at most 44 points against its two opponents, averaging 41
points, while the Kansas defense has given up 20 points more than that on
average.  Then again, the Jayhawks really lifted the foot off the accelerator
in the second half against North Dakota State.  Still, Pomeroy has Kansas with
the #10 adjusted defense, while Duke has the #33 adjusted defense.  On the
flip side, Pomeroy has Duke with the #4 adjusted offense, while Kansas is only
#14.  That suffocating Blue Devil defense has kept their games to 118.5 total
points on average, and that is keeping the total points prediction for today's
game on the low side.  Some of the prognosticators don't think either team
will score 70 points or more, though Massey and Vegas have the two teams
scoring in the low to mid 70s.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Duke     KU      Defensive Stats     Duke     KU
Points/Game         77.5    85.5     Opp Points/Game     41.0    61.5
Avg Score Margin   +36.5   +24.0     Opp Effective FG %  35.5    43.5
Assists/Game        17.5    23.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     16.0    14.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   48.0    44.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.0    29.0
Effective FG %      51.6    56.0     Blocks/Game          5.0     5.5
Off Rebound %       47.1    39.4     Steals/Game         10.5     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.291   0.177     Personal Fouls/Gm   12.0    14.5
Turnover %          15.0    10.5

My Stats Comparison        KU             Duke
===================   =============   ============
performance           -0.98           +9.95    
inconsistency          3.34            8.55    
trend                 +4.73 ±  .     +12.09 ±  .  
mental toughness      +0.70 ±  .      -1.75 ±  .  
average total pts      147.00         118.50    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jeremy Roach (guard)
most points        Mark Mitchell (forward)
most rebounds      Kyle Fillpowski (center)
most assists       Jeremy Roach (guard)
most steals        three-way tie
most blocks        Dereck Lively II (center)
most turnovers     Jeremy Roach (guard)
most fouls         two-way tie

Forward Dariq Whitehead is out with a right foot fracture.

                                                           2-0           2-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Duke
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         -1.80   63   65       44       #  9   #300    #  4   #329
Sagarin Predictor       -0.22   64   64       49.2     #  5   #300    #  4   #329 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +0.92   65   64                #  3   #300    #  5   #329 
Sagarin Recent Games    -4.99   62   67                # 15   #300    #  3   #329
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.91   67   71       69    
Massey                  +2.00   75   73       56       #  2   #193    #  6   #246
Pomeroy                 +0.22   72   72                # 10   #319    # 11   #306
Greenfield              +1.00   72   71                # 15   #255    #  6   #172
Dunkel                  -2.00   68   70                #  2           #  6 
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   72   74                                          
Dolphin Predictive      -2.49   65   67       41.5     #  4   #233    #  1   #257
Real Time              -13.00   71   84       21.9     #  5   #206    #  3   #167 
Seven Overtimes                                        # 29   #269    # 71   #339
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +1.60                 56.1     # 13   #339    # 23   #267
Whitlock        ***     +2.67                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           -1.21                          # 71   #326    # 45   #283
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  5           #  6
Pomeroy offense                                        # 14           #  4
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 22
Pomeroy tempo                                          #117           #239
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -0.86   68.0 70.2     48.2
scatter                  4.23    4.3  5.6     14.8

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is a 22-9
record, assuming the higher rated teams advance in the Battle 4 Atlantis:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #311 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +28.34    -3.34
HOME   #195 North Dakota State          82  59   +21.61    +1.39
NEUT   #  4 Duke                                  -0.22             0.492
HOME   #206 Southern Utah                        +22.26             0.978
NEUT   # 48 NC State                              +6.91             0.735
       ----- one of the following two games -----
NEUT   # 25 Wisconsin                             +3.85             0.637
NEUT   # 44 Dayton                                +6.68             0.728
       ----- one of the following four games -----
NEUT   # 29 Tennessee                             +4.45             0.657
NEUT   # 51 Butler                                +7.32             0.747
NEUT   # 55 Southern California                   +7.94             0.765
NEUT   # 56 BYU                                   +8.07             0.768
       -----
HOME   #214 Texas Southern                       +22.72             0.981
HOME   # 32 Seton Hall                            +7.95             0.765
AWAY   # 89 Missouri                              +8.67             0.785
HOME   #  6 Indiana                               +3.29             0.618
HOME   #154 Harvard                              +19.27             0.960
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma State                        +8.92             0.791
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +0.38             0.514
AWAY   # 33 West Virginia                         +2.10             0.576
HOME   # 69 Oklahoma                             +12.48             0.872
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                            +8.81             0.788
AWAY   # 61 Kansas State                          +5.61             0.695
HOME   # 95 TCU                                  +15.07             0.915
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -5.19             0.319
AWAY   #  8 Kentucky                              -2.67             0.404
HOME   # 61 Kansas State                         +11.77             0.858
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            +2.65             0.595
HOME   # 10 Texas                                 +4.46             0.657
AWAY   # 69 Oklahoma                              +6.32             0.717
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State                        +2.76             0.599
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +0.97             0.535
AWAY   # 95 TCU                                   +8.91             0.791
HOME   # 33 West Virginia                         +8.26             0.774
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                            +6.54             0.724
AWAY   # 10 Texas                                 -1.70             0.439

Here is Duke's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #216 Jacksonville                71  44   +23.09    +3.91
HOME   #325 USC Upstate                 84  38   +30.00   +16.00
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                +0.22             0.508