predictions for North Dakota State game

Busy day.  Won't be able to watch the game live.  Need to keep this short.

The BPI came closest to the correct margin for the Omaha game, so if you
want to go by the BPI, expect a 23 point win over North Dakota State.  That's
a surprisingly large margin given how much higher ranked the Bison are compared
to the Mavericks.

Massey is the pessimist with just an 18 point margin, while Seven Overtimes
(now on board for this season) is the optimist at 28 points.  The average
predicted margin is 22 points.  Self is still out, while I've not checked
on the status of Rice.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Oma     KU      Defensive Stats      Oma     KU
Points/Game         58.0    89.0     Opp Points/Game     76.0    64.0
Avg Score Margin   -18.0   +25.0     Opp Effective FG %  52.6    43.0
Assists/Game         7.0    24.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.0    15.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    43.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.0    26.0
Effective FG %      38.4    58.7     Blocks/Game          2.0     5.0
Off Rebound %       18.4    44.1     Steals/Game          5.0     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.411   0.217     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.0    13.0
Turnover %          17.2    10.5

My Stats Comparison        KU             NDSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           -4.65           -0.31    
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .   ±  .        .   ±  .  
mental toughness        .   ±  .        .   ±  .  
average total pts      153.00         134.00    

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Boden Skunberg (guard)
most points        two-way tie
most rebounds      Andrew Morgan (forward)
most assists       Luke Yoder (gaurd)
most steals        Andrew Morgan (forward)
most blocks        two-way tie
most turnovers     two-way tie
most fouls         two-way tie


                                                           1-0           0-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      N. Dakota S.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +20.89   82   61       94       #  3   #244    #167   # 18
Sagarin Predictor      +20.83   82   61       97.1     #  3   #244    #168   # 18 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +21.42   82   61                #  3   #244    #175   # 18 
Sagarin Recent Games   +21.61   82   61                #  4   #244    #167   # 18
Sagarin Eigenvector    +19.96   81   62       94    
Massey                 +18.00   80   62       92       #  2   #224    #158   # 21
Pomeroy                +23.57   81   58                #  8   #253    #204   # 15
Greenfield             +24.00   83.5 59.5              # 14   #261    #222   # 15
Dunkel                 +19.00   80   61                #  2           #120
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +23.50   84   60                                          
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes        +28.00   86   58       86       # 33   #230    #303   # 32
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +22.60                 96.9     # 14   #247    #321   #  6
Whitlock        ***    +21.25                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix   ***    +23.80                          #      #       #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  3           #182
Pomeroy offense                                        # 13           #204
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #212
Pomeroy tempo                                          #132           #254
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +22.03   82.1 60.4     93.3
scatter                  2.50    1.8  1.4      4.1

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #312 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  64   +29.65    -4.65
HOME   #168 North Dakota State                   +20.83             0.971
NEUT   #  5 Duke                                  +0.75             0.527
HOME   #206 Southern Utah                        +22.77             0.981
NEUT   # 51 NC State                              +7.48             0.752
       ----- one of the following two games -----
NEUT   # 26 Wisconsin                             +4.54             0.660
NEUT   # 48 Dayton                                +7.33             0.747
       ----- one of the following four games -----
NEUT   # 14 Tennessee                             +2.77             0.599
NEUT   # 58 Butler                                +8.12             0.770
NEUT   # 59 Southern California                   +8.28             0.774
NEUT   # 60 BYU                                   +8.31             0.775
       -----
HOME   #220 Texas Southern                       +23.51             0.984
HOME   # 38 Seton Hall                            +9.37             0.803
AWAY   # 91 Missouri                              +8.46             0.779
HOME   #  7 Indiana                               +4.72             0.666
HOME   #150 Harvard                              +19.55             0.962
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +9.30             0.801
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                            +0.52             0.519
AWAY   # 43 West Virginia                         +3.78             0.634
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma                             +10.61             0.833
HOME   # 49 Iowa State                           +10.53             0.831
AWAY   # 70 Kansas State                          +6.64             0.727
HOME   # 57 TCU                                  +11.27             0.847
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -5.03             0.324
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                              -2.27             0.418
HOME   # 70 Kansas State                         +13.00             0.881
AWAY   # 49 Iowa State                            +4.17             0.648
HOME   # 13 Texas                                 +5.84             0.702
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma                              +4.25             0.650
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +2.94             0.605
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +1.33             0.548
AWAY   # 57 TCU                                   +4.91             0.672
HOME   # 43 West Virginia                        +10.14             0.822
HOME   # 21 Texas Tech                            +6.88             0.734
AWAY   # 13 Texas                                 -0.52             0.481

Here is North Dakota State's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 18 Arkansas                    58  76   -17.69    -0.31
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -20.83             0.029