predictions for Omaha game

Wait, football season isn't over yet.  We've got a bowl game to worry about
first!

Imagine being able to say that.  Congrats to Leipold, Kotelnicki, and Borland.

But hey, we can't wait until January to worry about basketball.  

First game of the season, which means there is very little to go on when
making predictions.  Curiously, Sagarin, Massey, and Pomeroy all agree on
a 32 point margin for Kansas.  Total points are a little different;
Sagarin has it at 140, Pomeroy has it as 145, and Massey has it as high
as 152.  Vegas agrees with Sagarin, Massey, and Pomeroy on the margin and
falls within their range on total points.  The BPI is more pessimistic,
giving Kansas a mere 23.4 point margin.  That might be realistic if we
come out of the gate the way we did against Pittsburg State, but once the
Jayhawks realized that they can't just show up and intimidate their opponent
into losing with their team name and their defending national champions status,
we saw a 46 point turnaround (from down by 15 to winning by 31).  Of course,
we won't have Bill Self to make the necessary corrections, but Norm Roberts
isn't exactly a greenhorn.  Neither is Joe Dooley.  We should be fine against
Omaha.

Not everyone is on board for this season yet, as usual.  For Whitlock and
Colley, I've simply used their ratings for Kansas and Omaha from last season,
along with the scale values determined for last season, to produce point
margins, but flagged them with three asterisks to reiterate that this year's
teams are different.  Not that they affect the average predicted margin,
which is 31 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison (stats from last season)
===========================
Offensive Stats      Oma     KU      Defensive Stats      Oma     KU
Points/Game         69.7    78.2     Opp Points/Game     84.4    67.3
Avg Score Margin   -14.7   +11.0     Opp Effective FG %  56.3    45.8
Assists/Game        10.9    15.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.8     9.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   32.6    37.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.9    25.7
Effective FG %      49.3    53.8     Blocks/Game          2.6     4.3
Off Rebound %       23.0    31.6     Steals/Game          4.6     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.283   0.323     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.4    15.9
Turnover %          1472    14.9

Common Opponents
================
Obviously there are no common opponents, this being the first game of the season.
Leaving the text in here to serve as a template for future postings.

Players to Watch (from last season)
================
most minutes       not on the team this season
most points        Frankie Fidler (forward)
most rebounds      Akol Arop (forward)
most assists       not on the team this season
most steals        not on the team this season
most blocks        not on the team this season
most turnovers     not on the team this season
most fouls         not on the team this season


                                                           0-0           0-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Omaha
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +32.00   86   54       97       #  3   #       #322   #   
Sagarin Predictor      +32.00   86   54       99.8     #  3   #       #322   #    
Sagarin Golden Mean    +32.00   86   54                #  3   #       #322   #    
Sagarin Recent Games   +32.00   86   54                #  3   #       #322   #   
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                 +32.00   92   60       98       #  1   #       #325   #   
Pomeroy                +32.36   89   56                #  8   #       #330   #   
Greenfield             +31.50   90   58.5              # 10   #       #345   #   
Dunkel                 +29.50   84   55                #              #   
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +32.00   90   58                                          
Dolphin Predictive                                     #      #       #      #   
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #    
Seven Overtimes                                        #  1   #       #203   #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +23.40                 97.4     # 13   #       #341   #   
Whitlock        ***    +36.46                          #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix   ***    +29.43                          #      #       #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #              #    
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  2           #347
Pomeroy offense                                        # 16           #288
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #344
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 74           # 91
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +31.22   87.7 55.9     98.1
scatter                  3.01    2.7  2.3      1.2

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #322 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +32.01             0.998
HOME   #168 North Dakota State                   +22.29             0.979
NEUT   #  4 Duke                                  +1.39             0.550
HOME   #202 Southern Utah                        +24.21             0.986
NEUT   # 65 NC State                              +9.79             0.813
       ----- one of two possibilities -----
NEUT   # 32 Wisconsin                             +5.80             0.701
NEUT   # 44 Dayton                                +7.44             0.751
       ----- one of four possibilities -----
NEUT   # 15 Tennessee                             +3.47             0.624
NEUT   # 37 Southern California                   +6.63             0.727
NEUT   # 45 BYU                                   +7.50             0.752
NEUT   # 69 Butler                               +10.07             0.820
       -----
HOME   #218 Texas Southern                       +25.22             0.989
HOME   # 47 Seton Hall                           +10.80             0.837
AWAY   # 74 Missouri                              +7.65             0.757
HOME   # 11 Indiana                               +5.91             0.704
HOME   #150 Harvard                              +20.94             0.972
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +9.52             0.807
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            +0.90             0.533
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia                         +4.53             0.660
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                              +9.93             0.817
HOME   # 61 Iowa State                           +12.62             0.874
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                          +8.65             0.784
HOME   # 35 TCU                                   +9.64             0.810
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -4.16             0.353
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                              -1.75             0.437
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                         +15.01             0.914
AWAY   # 61 Iowa State                            +6.26             0.715
HOME   # 12 Texas                                 +6.18             0.713
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                              +3.57             0.627
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +3.16             0.613
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   +3.28             0.617
HOME   # 48 West Virginia                        +10.89             0.839
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +7.26             0.745
AWAY   # 12 Texas                                 -0.18             0.493

Here is Omaha's season-to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -32.01             0.002