initial season projection

The asteroid is heading back to perihelion!

Sagarin's starting ratings are out, so it's possible to do a season projection,
though with the usual grains of salt, considering how heavily biased the
Sagarin starting ratings are.  The other complication is that we have two
unknown opponents in the Battle 4 Atlantis.  If we assume the higher ranked
team advances, then we would get Wisconsin in the semis and Tennessee in the
final.  The projected number of wins would then be 22.84, which rounds to a
23-8 regular season record.

Kansas is #3 in the starting ratings, behind #1 Gonzaga and #2 Baylor.
Our Champions Classic opponent Duke is next at #4.  Our SEC Challenge
opponent Kentucky follows at #5.  Future Big 12 member Houston claimed
the #6 spot.  Texas is third in the Big 12 at #12, with Texas Tech fourth
at #18.

Kansas is favored in all but three games, namely the road games in Waco,
Austin, and Lexington, but that does NOT equate to a projected 28-3 record.
Recall that if Team A is rated 2 points better than Team B, and if those
two teams were to play 100 times, Team A would be favored in every game,
but the laws of statistics suggest that Team A might win only 51 or 52 of
those 100 contests, not all 100, despite being favored in every game.
You need to add the probabilities of victory in each game to get the
projected win total.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #322 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +32.01             0.998
HOME   #168 North Dakota State                   +22.29             0.979
NEUT   #  4 Duke                                  +1.39             0.550
HOME   #202 Southern Utah                        +24.21             0.986
NEUT   # 65 NC State                              +9.79             0.813

NEUT   # 32 Wisconsin                             +5.80             0.701
NEUT   # 44 Dayton                                +7.44             0.751

NEUT   # 15 Tennessee                             +3.47             0.624
NEUT   # 37 Southern California                   +6.63             0.727
NEUT   # 45 BYU                                   +7.50             0.752
NEUT   # 69 Butler                               +10.07             0.820

HOME   #218 Texas Southern                       +25.22             0.989
HOME   # 47 Seton Hall                           +10.80             0.837
AWAY   # 74 Missouri                              +7.65             0.757
HOME   # 11 Indiana                               +5.91             0.704
HOME   #150 Harvard                              +20.94             0.972
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +9.52             0.807
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            +0.90             0.533
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia                         +4.53             0.660
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                              +9.93             0.817
HOME   # 61 Iowa State                           +12.62             0.874
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                          +8.65             0.784
HOME   # 35 TCU                                   +9.64             0.810
AWAY   #  2 Baylor                                -4.16             0.353
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                              -1.75             0.437
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                         +15.01             0.914
AWAY   # 61 Iowa State                            +6.26             0.715
HOME   # 12 Texas                                 +6.18             0.713
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                              +3.57             0.627
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma State                        +3.16             0.613
HOME   #  2 Baylor                                +2.20             0.579
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   +3.28             0.617
HOME   # 48 West Virginia                        +10.89             0.839
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +7.26             0.745
AWAY   # 12 Texas                                 -0.18             0.493