SOS Adjusted Wins

When you compare teams like Kansas and Gonzaga in total wins it is a little unfair since Gonzaga plays, on average, a much weaker schedule. So I have developed a formula to adjust wins based on SOS. It is really simple. I simply calculate what the average team in the country would do against an opponent and adjust every win or loss based on what the average team would have done. So for instance, if Kansas plays Nevada. The average team would have a 57% probability of beating Nevada. Thus, If KU wins that game they get only 0.43 Net SOS Adj Wins. If KU loses that game they get -0.57 adjusted wins (or conversely a 0.57 loss). Clear as mud?

I summarized all this data from 2004 through 2022 (the period Self has been at Kansas). So Gonzaga has 543 wins in that period (Div 1games only) against KU's 549 wins. Furthermore, Gonzaga has an 84.4% win% as compared to Kansas at 81.6. So it looks like Gonzaga is right there with Kansas. But that is an unfair comparison because Gonzaga has an average SOS of 0.497 as compared to KU's 0.627. In other words, if the average team in the country had played KU's schedule, they would have lost 62.7% of those games whereas had the average team played Gonzaga's schedule they would have lost only 49.7% of those games. So adjusting the wins for SOS puts all games on an equal playing field so to speak. Here are the results. Gonzaga's numbers are still quite impressive. Give them great credit, they have been great by any standard. But their win% does not look quite as impressive as compared to Kansas when you adjust for SOS.

It really shows that Kansas and Duke have been a bit better than all the others in that period.

Hairy, that is my point in all this. You can get blurry eyed looking at the numbers but when you start to analyze them you see what a great accomplishment Self has made at Kansas. In fact, let me add the same table for the period from 1989-2003, the 15 years of Coach Roy. It is still very impressive but KU was 4th in the top pack of 4 (and really 4). all bunched together closely before it falls off pretty steeply. But no one did as well in the 15 year period of Roy as Self has done in the 19 year period. Self's 72.2% net adjusted win% is better than any team in either period.

That is a terrific look at how great of a job HCBS has done. Truly the best, until we lose one game next season and then it will be that he doesn't adjust, or recruit, or something well enough. We are lucky to be KU fans in this time frame.