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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
What has Self done for us lately?
- CorpusJayhawk
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2 years 1 month ago - 2 years 1 month ago #29631
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Self has 19 seasons at Kansas. He has won 2 National Championships and quite likely would have won 3 had the 2020 NCAA not been canceled. Let's take a look at where he ranks among other schools during that time.
Wins -- 1st with 555, Gonzaga is second at 550 Duke 3rd at 528 and UNC 4th at 512.
Avg rating - 1st at 0.367. 2nd is Duke at 0.364 followed by UNC at 0.337 and Michigan St. at 0.321.
Avg offense -- UNC 1.195, Duke 1.194 and Kansas 1.189. Michigan St. is way back at 1.161.
Avg defense -- 2nd to Wisconsin. at 0.821 to 0.815. Virginia is 3rd at 0.828 and Duke 4th at 0.830.
SOS rating -- 1st at 0.628. Yes Self and KU have played the toughest schedule over the last 19 years. UNC is 2nd at 0.624, Duke 3rd at 0.621 and Michigan St. 4th at 0.614.
Home win% -- 1st. Self has won 94.8% of his games in Allen Fieldhouse. Gonzaga is 2nd at 94.1/ Duke is 3rd at 90.3 and Kentucky 4th at 88.4. There is no place close to Allen Fieldhouse. Self has lost 16 home games in 19 seasons.
Top 10 Win% -- 2nd to Duke. Self has won 55.0% of his games against top 10 teams as compared to Duke at 55.9%. But look at this, in 3rd is UNC at 42.9% . Kentucky is 11th at 35.2%. This stat is simply amazing.
Top 25 Win% -- 1st. Self has won 65.0% of his games against top 25 teams. Duke is 2nd at 62.4% and then it drops all the way to 52.5% for Kentucky in 3rd. UNC is the only other team with better than a 50% win% against top 25 teams at 51.6%.
All in all, what Self has accomplished at Kansas is mind-boggling. I still hurt from the inability to vie for the NC in 2020. Self had easily the best team in the country and a team built for the NCAA tourney. But even so, 2 NC's in 19 years ain't too bad. What he has done at home and overall against the toughest schedule in the country is just sublime. I hope he has an even better next 10 years.
Wins -- 1st with 555, Gonzaga is second at 550 Duke 3rd at 528 and UNC 4th at 512.
Avg rating - 1st at 0.367. 2nd is Duke at 0.364 followed by UNC at 0.337 and Michigan St. at 0.321.
Avg offense -- UNC 1.195, Duke 1.194 and Kansas 1.189. Michigan St. is way back at 1.161.
Avg defense -- 2nd to Wisconsin. at 0.821 to 0.815. Virginia is 3rd at 0.828 and Duke 4th at 0.830.
SOS rating -- 1st at 0.628. Yes Self and KU have played the toughest schedule over the last 19 years. UNC is 2nd at 0.624, Duke 3rd at 0.621 and Michigan St. 4th at 0.614.
Home win% -- 1st. Self has won 94.8% of his games in Allen Fieldhouse. Gonzaga is 2nd at 94.1/ Duke is 3rd at 90.3 and Kentucky 4th at 88.4. There is no place close to Allen Fieldhouse. Self has lost 16 home games in 19 seasons.
Top 10 Win% -- 2nd to Duke. Self has won 55.0% of his games against top 10 teams as compared to Duke at 55.9%. But look at this, in 3rd is UNC at 42.9% . Kentucky is 11th at 35.2%. This stat is simply amazing.
Top 25 Win% -- 1st. Self has won 65.0% of his games against top 25 teams. Duke is 2nd at 62.4% and then it drops all the way to 52.5% for Kentucky in 3rd. UNC is the only other team with better than a 50% win% against top 25 teams at 51.6%.
All in all, what Self has accomplished at Kansas is mind-boggling. I still hurt from the inability to vie for the NC in 2020. Self had easily the best team in the country and a team built for the NCAA tourney. But even so, 2 NC's in 19 years ain't too bad. What he has done at home and overall against the toughest schedule in the country is just sublime. I hope he has an even better next 10 years.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Last Edit: 2 years 1 month ago by CorpusJayhawk.
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2 years 1 month ago #29632
by USAF Jayhawk
While top overall seed in 2020 was a given, I think "quite likely would have won" is a stretch. I'd be interested in knowing how many teams that were top rated entering the tourney actually won, but I suspect the number is less than one would think.
CorpusJayhawk wrote: He has won 2 National Championships and quite likely would have won 3 had the 2020 NCAA not been canceled.
While top overall seed in 2020 was a given, I think "quite likely would have won" is a stretch. I'd be interested in knowing how many teams that were top rated entering the tourney actually won, but I suspect the number is less than one would think.
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2 years 1 month ago #29635
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Based on my DPPI we had a 32% probability of winning the 2020 tourney. In the 37 years since the tournament expanded to 64 (or more) teams, a 1 seed has won 24 times. Here is a breakdown
1 seed -- 24 wins (65% of the time)
2 seed -- 5 wins (13.5% of the time)
3. seed -- 4 times (10.8% of the time)
4 , 6, 7 and 8 seeds 1 each (10.8% of the time)
I did a quick and dirty run from my DPPI and it predicted a 1 seed (regional) would win about 71% of the time. I do not have the breakdown of actual seed 1 through 64, just the regional seeds (1 through 16). But based on looking at my quick and dirty runs of my DPPI, the top seed usually has about 90% of the probability of the other 3 No. 1 seeds combined so the average top No. 1 seed would have about a 30% probability of winning it all. So "likely" might be the wrong word given the probability is less than 50% but clearly KU would have been the favorite to win it in 2020 and as I said and Self has also said, that team was somewhat uniquely built for a tournament run.
1 seed -- 24 wins (65% of the time)
2 seed -- 5 wins (13.5% of the time)
3. seed -- 4 times (10.8% of the time)
4 , 6, 7 and 8 seeds 1 each (10.8% of the time)
I did a quick and dirty run from my DPPI and it predicted a 1 seed (regional) would win about 71% of the time. I do not have the breakdown of actual seed 1 through 64, just the regional seeds (1 through 16). But based on looking at my quick and dirty runs of my DPPI, the top seed usually has about 90% of the probability of the other 3 No. 1 seeds combined so the average top No. 1 seed would have about a 30% probability of winning it all. So "likely" might be the wrong word given the probability is less than 50% but clearly KU would have been the favorite to win it in 2020 and as I said and Self has also said, that team was somewhat uniquely built for a tournament run.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, jaythawk1
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