medium.com - Zach Miller: Conference realignment: All the moves coming in 2022–25
First, somebody needed to do this, and Miller did a nice job. He covers all realignment levels from P5 on down, and finishes the article with a detailed listing of the currently known 2025 conference memberships.
Second, ignore the February date. Although it is not noted anywhere on the page, the article clearly has been updated since June 30 when the USC/UCLA jump to the B1G was announced.
So, broad brush for us, just looking at the current P5 conferences as of 2022-08-02...
In 2023 the Big 12 hits 14 as BYU, UC, UCF and UH join.
IN 2024 the B1G grows to 16 and the Pac-12 shrinks to 10 as USC & UCLA move.
In 2025 the Big 12 drops to 12 as OUt moves to the SEC, which becomes a 16 team conference.
Caveat: despite the current reports of the Pac-12-2 being “fractured”, it is possible than no further major college moves will occur until the Grant of Rights for the ACC media contract runs out in 2036. That outlook can change based on two major flash points:
(1) Notre Dame opts to join the B1G, almost certainly bringing a partner with them (Stanford being the most talked about).
(2) More schools opt to leave the Pac-12-2 because it really is “fractured” and schools are not happy with the new media contracts being offered the conference. The Pac-12-2 schools are not at all happy with ESPN’s initial offer of $24.5M per school, but if no contract is in place once ESPN’s 30 day “no competition” window expires later this month, the Pac-12-2 will be free to entertain offers from other media members.
Barring a surprise move by ND, it now truly is a waiting game. Short term to see what happens with the new Pac-12-2 media contracts, and longer term to wait out the ACC GOR term.
Rock Chalk, Jayhawks fans!
