KU in conference realignment

As you know I have been trying to closely follow and post about the ins and outs of major conference realignment over the last few months and back to last year‘s Oklahoma/Texas (OUt) decision to leave for the SEC. Historically the prevailing thought among most KANSAS fans and most college sports fans who are not too vehemently anti-KANSAS was that KU would have a good chance of eventually getting into the B1G if the B1G made any conference expansion moves. No ACC Programs were available until their grant of rights ran out in 2036 and the Pac-12 seemed to be fairly solid. The out of the blue and totally shocking June announcement (yes, it’s been less than a month) that UCLA and USC were going to be joining the Big Ten in 2024 has blown that thinking up.

Today, looking “long term” (i.e., in the next 10-14 years), it seems there are at least 10 schools that would be ahead of KU before the Jayhawks saw an offer for either the B1G or the SEC. In alpha order (except for ND leading the pack), they are…

Notre Dame

Clemson
Florida St
Georgia Tech
Miami
North Carolina
Oregon
Stanford
Virginia
Washington

(Aside — discussion elsewhere is the SEC would want all the eastern schools to keep the B1G out of the SEC geographical footprint. In addition to ND, the B1G reportedly covets UNC, GT and UVA in the east, and will look at Oregon, Washington and Stanford in the west).

After these schools KU would be arguably one of, if not the, best of the rest. Today that is almost entirely because of men’s basketball, but also allowing for a “no where to go but up… and looking like it might be” football program. It comes down to who will attract the TV and streaming viewers, particularly for football but eventually for hoops as well — especially if men’s college hoops goes the way of major college football and cuts away from the NCAA, further increasing the value of KU men’s basketball.

Last night Jon Kirby, the JayhawkSlant football guru, wrote the following —
Memorial Stadium Suite, JayhawkSlant, Wednesday July 27, 2022 10:29 PM

I talked to someone today who is in college athletics and has also been on the marketing/TV side like a Learfield.

This person told me the whole TV market set is not nearly used as it was when the Big 10 got Maryland and Rutgers

He said places like ESPN are now focusing on streaming numbers. This person said that's where KU has looked good.

He said for instance they can track how many people in the New York area are streaming KU events. He said KU gets strong streaming results. I didn't confirm if he was talking about mainly basketball.
end of post


So, that is at least some measure of good news for KU and KU Nation.

Despite recent comments by B1G commissioner Kevin Warren, at this point — barring any other shocking announcements — it seems for now the B1G and SEC are settling at 16 teams, at least until the ACC schools become expansion possibles in the 2030s. Assuming the heavens do not open up and anoint KU as the “next B1G thing” in the near future — i.e., KU is still in the Big 12, which may or may not itself become a 16 team conference in the near future as the Pac-12-2 fights to survive — the wait gives Lance Leipold a chance to show he can build a winning KUFB program, and the KUAD a chance to show it really does support KUFB and finally get the stadium upgrade the university so badly needs.

My personal perspective?

I think in the end we end up (1) king of the Big 12, the now #3 CFB conference ahead of the ACC and whatever remains of the Pac-12-2, (2) in the SEC or (3) in the B1G, in that order. If the B1G and SEC opt to go to 24 member conferences to try to essentially corner the market for major CFB, I think we’ll be (2) or (3). I’d prefer (3), but the apparent truth — based on what we have seen so far — is that the B1G has other prospects it wants first.

Even going back to the early 2010s, when 2008 was still clearly visible in the rear view mirror, I have never heard or read that the B1G was really interested in KU. Of course, the way our crappy administration has been until this past year, I doubt we ardently pursued the B1G in the early 2010s for fear of the mountain to climb with the Regents and State legislature.

With the April 2021 hiring of KUAD Travis Goff and the rapidly changing college conference landscape, that administration perspective seems to have changed. And who knows how successful new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, with his track record of rehabbing successful sports organizations, will be in advancing the future of the Big 12? If he can make it into the clear — and not so far behind the leaders — #3 conference, being in the Big 12 won’t be a sentence to mediocrity.

At near future 16+16+16 (possible Big 12+4 Pac)+15 (ACC today)+ND, that’s 64 of the soon to be 70 P5 schools (for this discussion counting ND as a P5 for now as it is ACC for all but CFB). The 6 not in would be the 6 Pac-12-2-4 remnants if at least 4 jump to the Big 12 in the near future because they aren’t happy with the new proposed media contract offers (ESPN reportedly offered the remaining schools $24.5M per year this week; last year each Pac12 school made $32M). I believe KU and the Big 12-OUt will do well with their upcoming 2025 new contracts (negotiations to begin in earnest probably 2023), and even more so depending on which, if any, of the Pac 12-2 schools opt to change conference homes (I’m personally hoping for Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Washington).

Should the B1G and SEC look to further expand once the mid-2030s arrive, as KU fans we had best hope they shoot for 24 team super conferences. Needing 16 more schools to get there would almost ensure KU a room in one of those 2 houses.

Rock Chalk! and fingers crossed, RCBers!