A treatise & prediction re the NCAA case against KANSAS as of 2022-05-03

Okay, the other day I went a little nuts in JayhawkSlant's Allen Fieldhouse forum and wrote a novella on this subject. There are so many people worrying "what are we gonna do when the NCAA decision comes down?" that I just had to say "Way-ay-yt a minute... You know you make me wanna -- WRITE!..."

RCBer's, you've read some if not all of my thoughts on this before, but not really all gathered together and detailed in one place. So here is the case to date, originally published over there, but now here on the RCB "for the record" and your consideration.

TLDR? - BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: The 2022 title is safe, no games will be vacated, there will be no postseason ban, Self will not be banned for anything close to a whole season (if at all), KU might lose a scholly or two for a few years, and IF Self & KU are not sanguine with the NCAA decisions... see ya in court, whoever takes Mark Emmert's place!

Here's the novella in it's entirety.

POSTED by LTCUSARet in ALLEN FIELDHOUSE SUITE on JayhawkSlant, May 3, 2022.

Regarding the Not Capable of Administering Athletics case discussion, I want to start by stating I am not a lawyer, I have no insider knowledge, only what I have read since this mess began, and to paste here this great post from the thread “Who here can lay out the allegations defense?”…
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71JayhawkDave wrote:

This is an administrative process, not even a civil or criminal one, and the bar for "guilt" is "more likely than not".

So that is bothersome. That said, I have some experience with administrative hearings and judgments, and read through every page of KU's law firm response to the allegations (I didn't read through HCBS's response, assuming it was essentially identical). IMHO, the law firm eviscerated the NCAA allegations, including to reference in-house conversations immediately after the wiretapped conversations and texts, and those in-house and contemporaneous coversations support KU's position that no wrong-doing occurred by HCBS, et al. In other words, when those happened, no one had any reason to believe they needed to "cover" themselves.

To take one "episode", DeSousa's guardian attested to not knowing the $2,500 was even coming and when he contacted the Adidas sleazeball about it, he basically said he was sure the guardian knew what to do, or words to that effect. The guardian said he kept, I believe, $500 or so and gave the rest to charity.

IMHO Self's, and the U's, adamant public denials of violations combined with KU's response, make it highly unlikely that the NCAA will issue any significant punishment. Any finding of fault would seem at great risk to be overturned based on being arbitrary and not supported by facts in evidence. (In one admin case I participated in, the guilt finding was thrown out because it relied on what might have happened vs what could be conclusively shown.) I would expect both U and HCBS to sue including to demand an immediate injunction. I don't think the NCAA wants another NIL-like embarrassment, but also KU wants this to go away. So I'd bet that behind the scenes there's a negotiation going on whereby KU and HCBS et al admit no guilt but agree to HCBS being held out of practice for some time period or maybe not coaching some number of games at season start, or something similar. Self may be reluctant to agree even to something like that, he certainly presents himself that way, but he also could recognize that a wrist slap in face of allegation of five, Leve 1 infractions, would be a clearcut victory.

Finally, given that all this has been brought about by illicit behavior of Adidas employees, it wouldn't be surprising if there's some "hold harmless" language floating around whereby much of KU's legal expenses are paid by Adidas.

(Bolded emphasis in the above quote done by me.)

Second, I have been saying for months now that several facts point to the NCAA having painted itself into a corner. I’ll repeat myself, at the risk of being rude…

The first fact is that NCAA Enforcement never lowered the boom in all the time they had the case. Why? Because they knew they had nothing that would stand up if their decision was challenged in court, and KU and Self had indicated they would take any punishment they deemed “arbitrary and not supported by evidence” to court. So when the IARP option was invoked by KU, for better or worse (my guess is almost certainly the latter) NCAA-E lost control of the case.

The second fact is that when the IARP got the case, the first thing they did was look at the NCAA-E work to date. The next thing they did was do their own investigation. Why? Where was the case so weak that they needed to reinvestigate instead of relying on the work done by the NCAA-E? Maybe taking evidence used in a court case where KU and other schools were declared “victims” wasn’t a good idea after all? Whatever the issues were, we are now 32 months, almost 3 years, since the initial Notice of Allegations was presented to KU in September 2019 and there is still no resolution of the case. And IMO the longer they take, the better for KU.

Third, we know that whatever comes down from the IARP is not appealable within the NCAA bureaustopia, BUT we also know that organizations get sued by their members for wrongdoing all the time, and the NCAA is no exception. Others in this thread have mentioned the NCAA is still trying to figure out how to deal with the ramifications of previous court losses. We also know that KU and Self jointly submitted an “acceptable“ resolution proposal that the NCAA totally rebuffed. And as others have stated here, we know that one avowed purpose of NCAA-E and the IARP is NOT to punish the current athletes in the program for past perceived transgressions. We also know that KU and Self worked with the NCAA *every* step of the way, did not play people who were not NCAA cleared to play, and did everything else the NCAA wanted until KU and Self were told to bend over and take it with the NOA. From that moment on KU and Self have stood their ground, and I do not see that stopping in the halls of administrivia should the NCAA/IARP try to levy significant punishments on KU and Self. And we also know that in a court of law there are related cans of worms that might get opened (see Zion Williamson going to Duke) that the NCAA (and IARP member Grant Hill) do NOT WANT OPENED (yeah, K picked the right time to retire).

Fourth, as already noted in this thread the world has changed. When laws change so that something is essentially no longer illegal, open court cases are generally dropped. Same with organization rules. Doesn’t matter that it was illegal or against the rules at the time. The delay in rendering a decision and delivering a sentence has rendered the case moot. Such arguments may fall on deaf ears in the NCAA, but the court will hear them.

MY SWAG as to what’s going to happen allowing I am correct and the NCAA is indeed painted into a corner…

FIRST, because so many folks think otherwise, the 2022 title is safe. None of the players were involved in any of the alleged violations.

SECOND, no wins will be vacated. Silvio DeSousa is the only player that actually played in any of the games. He did not step foot on the court until the NCAA cleared him. And when the NCAA later said “hold on, we got a problem“, he sat until the NCAA cleared him again.

THIRD, there will be no postseason ban. That punishes the current kids and after OKSt they will never again be able to say they aren’t going to punish the current student-athletes if they repeat their stupid decision.

I am fairly confident in those 3 outcomes.

If any of those events *do* happen, big bucks are at stake and more bucks will be spent by KU and Self getting those punishments suspended until the ensuing court case can happen.

Will KU, Self and/or Townsend be punished?

The NCAA will try to save face with some form of punishment, and it will be interesting just what KU and Self will accept without going to court.

I can see losing a scholarship or two for a couple of years as a possibility to punish KU.

I can also see Self having to sit out a few games, but not a whole season. Look at what went on at Syracuse for something like 18-20 years, they had 101 wins vacated, lost 12 scholarships over 4 years and Jim Boeheim sat for only 9 games. Should the NCAA try to go there… see ya in court, NCAA.

And Self has said Townsend is his guy and he and KU have his back.

And truly, here’s the bottom line — this has become an embarrassment for which there is no easy way out for the NCAA. The UNC ”academics issue, not eligibility issue” fiasco, losing in court, hitting OKSt with a postseason ban that should NEVER have happened and now twisting in the wind thanks to their own incompetence and overzealousness and the competence of KU’s law team… Emmert stepping down is just a necessary first step to surviving in their ever changing brave new world.

PREDICTION - this case won’t be settled until Emmert’s replacement is in the saddle and my possible relative has “ridden off into the sunset.”* And it won’t go to court because the NCAA won’t press its luck and will come out with something KU and Self can live with.





*My grandmother was an Emmert. Likely not related, her family East coast, his West coast, but I cannot rule out the possibility.[/size]

So there ya have it, folks.
A slap on the wrist at worst, and only something that KU & Self will accept.
Walk away with a "Sorry we wasted your time and money" from the new NCAA President at best.

I hope I'm right.
I know, this is the NCAA we are writing about here.
But as I keep saying - the world has changed, and continues to do so...
And I understand that the big conferences are talking about cutting the NCAA out of the Men's hoops postseason NC tournament...

Meanwhile we are waiting on potential NBA draft returnees and/or transfers, any signs that OU/t may jump to the SEC early and any signs that BYU joins the Big 12 this summer and Houston, Cincinnati and UCF join them as the AAC wants to get its six new members -- UAB, FAU, UNC-Charlotte, UNTx, Rice and UTSA -- on board ASAP.

This does not bode to be a quiet offseason.

Stay tuned...