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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 2022 redux
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2 years 7 months ago #29181
by asteroid
ROCK CHALK CHAMPIONSHIP!
Here are some end-of-season statistics. First, how did conference members do compared to
their pre-conference-season projections? Here's the round-by-round trends. Recall that
due to postponements, some teams had zero games in a round, and due to make-ups, some teams
had two games in a round.
Init. Rd. 1 Rd. 2 Rd. 3 Rd. 4 Rd. 5 Rd. 6 Rd. 7 Rd. 8 Rd. 9
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
# 7 Kansas 14.0 13.8 14.4 13.3 13.1 13.4 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3
# 3 Baylor 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.8 13.8 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.4 13.3
# 13 Texas Tech 9.7 9.8 9.1 10.0 11.8 10.7 11.2 11.6 11.4 12.1
# 17 Texas 10.6 11.2 11.7 10.6 11.2 10.6 9.5 9.4 10.0 9.5
# 45 TCU 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.6 6.1 6.7 6.4 7.5 6.9 8.0
# 43 Oklahoma State 7.3 7.3 6.8 7.7 6.6 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.6
# 52 Iowa State 6.7 6.6 7.2 6.9 7.2 8.0 7.7 6.8 7.4 7.2
# 38 Oklahoma 8.7 8.8 8.6 9.3 8.9 8.1 7.8 7.3 8.0 7.0
# 68 Kansas State 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.2 3.5 4.5 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.8
# 58 West Virginia 7.9 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.2 6.2
Rd.10 Rd.11 Rd.12 Rd.13 Rd.14 Rd.15 Rd.16 Rd.17 Rd. 18
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
# 7 Kansas 14.7 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.4 13.7 14 4
# 3 Baylor 12.6 12.9 13.2 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.9 14 4
# 13 Texas Tech 12.5 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.3 12.6 12.6 12 6
# 17 Texas 10.1 10.6 10.3 10.7 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.2 10 8
# 45 TCU 7.2 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.7 7.0 7.7 8.5 8 10
# 43 Oklahoma State 7.1 6.7 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.1 6.8 7.4 8 10
# 52 Iowa State 6.9 6.2 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.7 7.1 7 11
# 38 Oklahoma 6.4 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.5 7 11
# 68 Kansas State 6.7 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.2 7.1 6.6 6.5 6 12
# 58 West Virginia 5.9 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.3 4.0 3.6 4 14
The difference between the actual conference record and the pre-conference season
projection:
Init.
Pred Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Record Diff
---- -------------- ------ ------ ----
# 13 Texas Tech 9.7 12 6 +2.3
# 45 TCU 6.2 8 10 +1.8
# 68 Kansas State 4.9 6 12 +1.1
# 43 Oklahoma State 7.3 8 10 +0.7
# 52 Iowa State 6.7 7 11 +0.3
# 3 Baylor 14.0 14 4 0.0
# 7 Kansas 14.0 14 4 0.0
# 17 Texas 10.6 10 8 -0.6
# 38 Oklahoma 8.7 7 11 -1.7
# 58 West Virginia 7.9 4 14 -3.9
Baylor and Kansas did exactly as projected. Kansas State did better than projected,
but not good enough to save Weber's job. West Virginia had a historically bad season.
Ironically, Huggins finally got into the Hall of Fame. Give Adams Coach of the Year
for finishing more than 2 wins better than projected. Of course, if the projections
had been done on November 1 instead of January 1, Iowa State would have done the best
relative to projection.
Best Prognosticator
-------------------
Of the various prognosticators that I consulted during the season, who did best?
Of course, it depends on how you define "best". In this case, I simply compared
the actual margin to the predicted margin and summed the absolute values. Next
season I may implement an RMS method as well, which would give more weight to
really close predictions, whereas a real stinker of a prediction would hurt much
more. There were 98 total conference games, including the post-season tournament.
Real Time did not do predictions for those eight tournament games, and Seven Overtimes
was AWOL for nine games during the conference season.
Prognosticator Total Error Per Game Error
------------------------------------ ----------- --------------
Massey 774.0 7.9
Vegas 782.0 8.0
Dolphin 782.2 8.0
Greenfield 783.0 8.0
ESPN BPI 785.4 8.0
Sagarin Predictor plus home court tweak 785.6 8.0
Sagarin Predictor 789.7 8.1
Sagarin Predictor plus performance 790.8 8.1
Sagarin Overall 792.2 8.1
Sagarin Golden Mean 794.2 8.1
Pomeroy 797.4 8.1
Whitlock 811.2 8.3
Sagarin Predictor plus trend analysis 819.9 8.4
Sagarin Recent Games 856.0 8.7
Seven Overtimes 799.0 9.0 only 89 games
Colley 880.7 9.0
Real Time 810.0 9.0 only 90 games
Sagarin Eigenvector 899.0 9.2
Dunkel 973.0 9.9
Being the most veteran of them all, Dunkel was really bad at this. Note that some
prognosticators only work in integer margins, while others work in half-integers,
and some to higher precision than a tenth of a point, so differences of tenths of
a point are not necessarily significant. But kudos to Ken Massey for coming out
on top, especially considering that he didn't win any individual round. Ditto for
Dolphin. Greenfield almost always mimics Vegas, and indeed Greenfield's predictions
can change with 24 hours of a game, whereas once I get the Vegas prediction from
Dunkel, it doesn't change, so the results may depend slightly on exactly when I
consult the relevant web pages. The BPI has come a long way since it was first
introduced. Sagarin's eigenvector analysis does not appear to be ready for prime
time.
Road Wins
---------
The long-term average is one road win in every three games, so in a 90-game conference season,
one should expect about 30 road wins, give or take a couple. Once again, the law of averages
held up, with 32 road wins. Kansas and Baylor tied for the differential. Baylor was a better
road team than Kansas, while Kansas was a better home team than Baylor.
Road wins (32 out of 90) Home losses RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
7 Baylor ISU TCU WVU OU KSU OSU UT 0 Kansas +5 KU
5 Kansas OSU OU KSU ISU WVU 0 Texas Tech +5 BU
4 Texas KSU TCU OU WVU 2 Baylor TTU OSU +3 TTU
3 Iowa State OSU TCU KSU 3 Oklahoma State KU ISU BU +1 UT
3 Kansas State UT TCU ISU 3 Texas KSU TTU BU -1 OSU
3 TCU KSU ISU OU 4 Oklahoma KU BU TCU UT -1 TCU
3 Texas Tech BU WVU UT 4 TCU BU UT KSU ISU -2 ISU
2 Oklahoma WVU KSU 5 Iowa State BU TCU KU KSU OSU -2 OU
2 Oklahoma State BU ISU 5 West Virginia BU OU TTU KU UT -3 KSU
0 West Virginia 6 Kansas State UT TCU KU BU ISU OU -5 WVU
West Virginia was the only conference team to be overrated; everyone else was underrated, but
only by at most 1.1 points. West Virginia was the most consistent team, but consistently
mediocre.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.10 West Virginia 8.09
Baylor +1.01 Kansas State 8.40
Kansas State +0.88 Texas 8.47
Kansas +0.78 Kansas 9.62
TCU +0.77 Baylor 10.11
Iowa State +0.63 TCU 10.40
Oklahoma State +0.55 Texas Tech 10.49
Texas +0.34 Oklahoma State 10.83
Oklahoma +0.29 Oklahoma 11.13
West Virginia -1.02 Iowa State 12.23
TCU came on strong at the end of the season, knocking off Kansas in Fort Worth, and nearly
taking down 1 seed Arizona in the Big Dance. The Horned Frogs finished with the most positive
trend in the conference.
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
TCU +0.36 +/- 0.17 Iowa State +0.19 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State +0.22 +/- 0.23 TCU +0.14 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech +0.14 +/- 0.16 Kansas State +0.06 +/- 0.14
Kansas +0.07 +/- 0.13 Oklahoma State +0.02 +/- 0.23
Kansas State +0.01 +/- 0.17 Texas Tech -0.02 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma -0.02 +/- 0.19 Oklahoma -0.03 +/- 0.19
West Virginia -0.10 +/- 0.15 Kansas -0.14 +/- 0.23
Texas -0.14 +/- 0.15 Texas -0.18 +/- 0.12
Iowa State -0.24 +/- 0.20 West Virginia -0.21 +/- 0.15
Baylor -0.29 +/- 0.17 Baylor -0.23 +/- 0.16
Only West Virginia fell on the negative side of the ledger in scoring margin.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Kansas 77.88 Texas Tech 61.08 Kansas 145.48 Baylor +12.26
Baylor 76.68 Texas 61.12 Baylor 141.09 Texas Tech +10.57
Texas Tech 71.65 Iowa State 63.06 West Virginia 137.42 Kansas +10.28
Kansas State 68.74 Baylor 64.41 Kansas State 136.45 Texas +7.21
Oklahoma 68.66 TCU 65.32 Oklahoma 134.09 Oklahoma +3.23
Texas 68.32 Oklahoma 65.43 Oklahoma State 134.03 Iowa State +2.03
West Virginia 68.09 Oklahoma State 66.07 TCU 133.38 TCU +2.74
TCU 68.06 Kansas 67.60 Texas Tech 132.73 Oklahoma State +1.90
Oklahoma State 67.97 Kansas State 67.71 Texas 129.44 Kansas State +1.03
Iowa State 65.09 West Virginia 69.33 Iowa State 128.14 West Virginia -1.24
All ten conference members finished in the Top 22 in strength of schedule. The Big 12 was a
monster of a conference this season.
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 81.91 ( 5)
Kansas State 81.49 ( 7)
West Virginia 81.48 ( 8)
TCU 81.46 ( 9)
Oklahoma State 81.32 (11)
Oklahoma 81.31 (13)
Iowa State 81.29 (14)
Baylor 81.02 (18)
Texas Tech 80.79 (21)
Texas 80.78 (22)
Home Court Advantage
--------------------
This one is actually a misnomer. A better description would be "swap of venue",
which is a combination of "home court advantage" and "road court disadvantage".
There were 45 swaps of venue in the Big 12's balanced home-and-away series of
90 games. In the table below, "1@H" means "Team 1 at home", and similarly "2@H"
means Team 2 at home. "Diff." is then the differential between 1@H and 2@H, or
the effect of swapping the venue. As you can see, the median value was 8 points,
though the average was slightly less at 6.98 points, with a standard deviation
of 14.23 points and a standard deviation of the mean of 2.12 points. Because
everybody played everybody else both home and away, the situation is symmetric,
so for the conference schedule as a whole, the average home court advantage equals
the average road court disadvantage, thus we can conclude that the home court
advantage in the Big 12 this season was 3.49 points, give or take 1.06 points.
Note that the national average was 2.41 points, according to Sagarin Predictor,
so the home court advantage in the Big 12 was a little more than a point larger
than the national average. If you consult the list of best prognosticators
above, you'll notice that "Sagarin Predictor plus home court tweak" did slightly
better than Sagarin Predictor. That "home court tweak" was, in fact, 1 point.
I knew historically that the home court advantage in the Big 12 was a bit larger
than the national average, so I set the tweak to 1 point at the beginning of the
conference season to see how it would play out. It actually worked out better
than I expected.
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Texas Tech Oklahoma +24 -15 +39
Iowa State Oklahoma +21 -13 +34
Kansas Baylor +24 -10 +34
Oklahoma State West Virginia +23 -10 +33
Texas Iowa State +22 -9 +31
Texas Tech Oklahoma State +21 -1 +22
West Virginia Iowa State +16 -3 +19
Oklahoma State Texas +13 -5 +18
Texas Tech TCU +13 -3 +16
TCU West Virginia +10 -6 +16
Kansas State Texas Tech +11 -5 +16
Texas Tech Iowa State +12 -4 +16
Kansas Kansas State +19 +3 +16
Texas West Virginia +15 +1 +14
TCU Kansas +10 -4 +14
Kansas West Virginia +26 +13 +13
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +9 -4 +13
Texas Oklahoma +14 +2 +12
Texas Tech Kansas +8 -3 +11
Baylor Texas +17 +7 +10
Kansas Texas +7 -3 +10
Baylor Kansas State +25 +15 +10
Kansas State West Virginia +5 -3 +8 <-- median; mean 6.98 +/- 14.23 (2.12)
Texas Tech Texas +13 +6 +7
Texas Tech Baylor +10 +3 +7
Kansas State Oklahoma State +3 -3 +6
Texas Tech West Virginia +13 +7 +6
TCU Oklahoma State +4 -1 +5
Oklahoma West Virginia +13 +10 +3
Kansas Oklahoma State +14 +11 +3
Baylor Iowa State +7 +5 +2
Oklahoma Kansas -3 -2 -1
TCU Baylor -12 -10 -2
Oklahoma Baylor -14 -10 -4
West Virginia Baylor -9 -4 -5
Kansas State Oklahoma -7 -2 -5
Iowa State Kansas State -6 +1 -7
Iowa State Kansas -9 -1 -8
Oklahoma TCU -9 -1 -8
Baylor Oklahoma State -7 +2 -9
Texas Kansas State -1 +13 -14
TCU Texas -23 -9 -14
TCU Kansas State -12 +3 -15
Iowa State TCU -15 +3 -18
Iowa State Oklahoma State -17 +3 -20
Now for the individual teams, in order of strongest home court advantage. Because
each team played nine conference opponents both home and away, to get the standard
deviation of the mean, simply divide the tabluated standard deviation by 3 (that is,
root 9), which can be used to gauge the significance of the home court advantage.
For example, the statistical significance of Texas Tech having a better home court
advantage than West Virginia is low, while the statistical signficance of Texas Tech
having a better home court advantage than TCU is high. TCU actually played better
on the road than it did at home, amazingly.
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Texas Tech Oklahoma +24 -15 +39
Texas Tech Oklahoma State +21 -1 +22
Texas Tech Iowa State +12 -4 +16
Texas Tech Kansas State +5 -11 +16
Texas Tech TCU +13 -3 +16 <-- median; mean 15.56 +/- 10.31
Texas Tech Kansas +8 -3 +11
Texas Tech Baylor +10 +3 +7
Texas Tech Texas +13 +6 +7
Texas Tech West Virginia +13 +7 +6
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
West Virginia Oklahoma State +10 -23 +33
West Virginia Iowa State +16 -3 +19
West Virginia TCU +6 -10 +16
West Virginia Texas -1 -15 +14
West Virginia Kansas -13 -26 +13 <-- median; mean 11.89 +/- 10.80
West Virginia Kansas State +3 -5 +8
West Virginia Texas Tech -7 -13 +6
West Virginia Oklahoma -10 -13 +3
West Virginia Baylor -9 -4 -5
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Kansas Baylor +24 -10 +34
Kansas Kansas State +19 +3 +16
Kansas TCU +4 -10 +14
Kansas West Virginia +26 +13 +13
Kansas Texas Tech +3 -8 +11 <-- median; mean 10.22 +/- 11.89
Kansas Texas +7 -3 +10
Kansas Oklahoma State +14 +11 +3
Kansas Oklahoma +2 +3 -1
Kansas Iowa State +1 +9 -8
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Oklahoma Texas Tech +15 -24 +39
Oklahoma Iowa State +13 -21 +34
Oklahoma Oklahoma State +4 -9 +13
Oklahoma Texas -2 -14 +12
Oklahoma West Virginia +13 +10 +3 <-- median; mean 9.22 +/- 17.10
Oklahoma Kansas -3 -2 -1
Oklahoma Baylor -14 -10 -4
Oklahoma Kansas State +2 +7 -5
Oklahoma TCU -9 -1 -8
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Texas Iowa State +22 -9 +31
Texas Oklahoma State +5 -13 +18
Texas West Virginia +15 +1 +14
Texas Oklahoma +14 +2 +12
Texas Baylor -7 -17 +10 <-- median; mean 8.22 +/- 14.39
Texas Kansas +3 -7 +10
Texas Texas Tech -6 -13 +7
Texas Kansas State -1 +13 -14
Texas TCU +9 +23 -14
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Oklahoma State West Virginia +23 -10 +33
Oklahoma State Texas Tech +1 -21 +22
Oklahoma State Texas +13 -5 +18
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +9 -4 +13
Oklahoma State Kansas State +3 -3 +6 <-- median; mean 7.89 +/- 16.03
Oklahoma State TCU +1 -4 +5
Oklahoma State Kansas -11 -14 +3
Oklahoma State Baylor -2 +7 -9
Oklahoma State Iowa State -3 +17 -20
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Iowa State Oklahoma +21 -13 +34
Iowa State Texas +9 -22 +31
Iowa State West Virginia +3 -16 +19
Iowa State Texas Tech +4 -12 +16
Iowa State Baylor -5 -7 +2 <-- median; mean 5.44 +/- 20.34
Iowa State Kansas State -6 +1 -7
Iowa State Kansas -9 -1 -8
Iowa State TCU -15 +3 -18
Iowa State Oklahoma State -17 +3 -20
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Baylor Kansas +10 -24 +34
Baylor Kansas State +25 +15 +10
Baylor Texas +17 +7 +10
Baylor Texas Tech -3 -10 +7
Baylor Iowa State +7 +5 +2 <-- median; mean 4.77 +/- 12.89
Baylor TCU +10 +12 -2
Baylor Oklahoma +10 +14 -4
Baylor West Virginia +4 +9 -5
Baylor Oklahoma State -7 +2 -9
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Kansas State Kansas -3 -19 +16
Kansas State Texas Tech +11 -5 +16
Kansas State Baylor -15 -25 +10
Kansas State West Virginia +5 -3 +8
Kansas State Oklahoma State +3 -3 +6 <-- median; mean 1.67 +/- 12.16
Kansas State Oklahoma -7 -2 -5
Kansas State Iowa State -1 +6 -7
Kansas State Texas -13 +1 -14
Kansas State TCU -3 +12 -15
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
TCU Texas Tech +3 -13 +16
TCU West Virginia +10 -6 +16
TCU Kansas +10 -4 +14
TCU Oklahoma State +4 -1 +5
TCU Baylor -12 -10 -2 <-- median; mean -0.67 +/- 13.88
TCU Oklahoma +1 +9 -8
TCU Texas -23 -9 -14
TCU Kansas State -12 +3 -15
TCU Iowa State -3 +15 -18
How the major conferences did in the Big Dance
----------------------------------------------
Big 10 (9 teams) record: 9-9
Big 12 (6 teams) record: 13-5
SEC (6 teams) record: 5-6
Big East (6 teams) record: 7-6
ACC (5 teams) record: 13-5
Pac 12 (3 teams) record: 4-3
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2 years 7 months ago #29191
by jaythawk1
Education Is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence~Robert Frost
Well done asteroid! Another find job all season long! Enjoyed all your posts...looking forward to them next season too!
Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Go KU!
Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Go KU!
Education Is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence~Robert Frost
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, porthawk
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