predictions for North Carolina game

One Last Game.  One Shining Moment.

Villanova didn't want to foul because of their short bench.  Kansas didn't want
to foul, because Villanova is really good at charities.  The refs obliged and
only called 11 fouls on Villanova and a mere 8 fouls against Kansas.  Yes,
Villanova made 80 percent of their charities, but they only took 10.  Kansas
only made 77 percent of their charities, but took 13, so the Jayhawks actually
got 2 points of the final margin at the charity stripe.  Both teams made 13
treys (though Kansas attempted 7 fewer), so the real difference in the game was
the two-pointer shooting percentages.  Villanova was 9 for 26 (34.6 percent)
while Kansas was 16 for 30 (53.3 percent).

Now we're dealing with a completely different opponent.  With Villanova we had
the #345 tempo (at the time), according to Pomeroy, and now we're dealing with
the #40 tempo, even faster than Kansas (ranked #65 by Pomeroy).  Okay, I think
we can handle that.  Expect Remy to play a bigger role against the Tarheels
than he did against the Wildcats.

Another stat that jumps out is the inconsistency of Carolina, a whopping 13.4
points!  They played over 30 points below expectation at Miami (while Kansas
played over 15 points above expectation against that same opponent, thereby
skewing the common opponents result), and they played over 27 points above
expectation against Marquette in the Round of 64.  They have played all five
tournament games above expectation, but by decreasing amounts, leading to a
strongly positive trend for the entire season, but if that decreasing trend
continues by a couple more points, Kansas will walk away with a championship.

North Carolina also has a positive mental toughness rating when a linear
regression is performed to look for that statistic only.  However, if you
perform a multiple linear regression to extract trend and mental toughness
simultaneously, the positive trend becomes even stronger, but the mental
toughness value goes negative, though it's not statistically significant.
Taken at face value, these give the Tarheels an extra 6.1 points.  Kansas
now has a positive trend after two strong games, but a negative mental
toughness rating (which, again, helps against weaker opponents) though
neither is statistically significant.  Taken at face value, they give the
Jayahwks an extra 2.3 points.  Average them, and we have Kansas favored by
3.3 points.

All the prognosticators are favoring Kansas for the championship.  The most
pessimistic is Sagarin Recent Games, which has Kansas by a mere 3.8 points.
Meanwhile, Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the most optimistic (with a
caveat) at 8.0 points.  Dunkel is picking Kansas by 7.5 points, and Whitlock
is a hair behind, though he hasn't updated his ratings since the end of the
conference tournaments.

The caveat is the common opponents comparison.  There are actually three
common opponents.  Both Kansas and North Carolina lost badly to Kentucky,
and you can be sure that Calipari will be trumpeting that fact.  The
Jyahwks arguably handled Kentucky somewhat better than the Tarheels did.
Then we have Baylor.  North Carolina needed overtime to beat the Bears in
the Round of 32 after a frantic comeback by Baylor to send the game into
an extra period.  And as we know, Kansas handled the Bears easily at home
but fell in Waco, so the Baylor comparison is more of a wash, though it
would work in favor of Kansas if instead I used the margin at the of
regulation (or zero) for North Carolina instead of 7.  The wild card here
is Miami, noted above when discussing inconsistency.  That's a 50 point
margin in favor of Kansas, and it completely skews the result.  At least
it skews things in the right direction for Kansas fans.

The Jayhawks have benefited from recent injuries to an opposing player,
so the real question is whether Bacot's rolled ankle is going to swell up
overnight?  He was able to return to action against Duke and seemed to be
moving okay, but I'll admit that I wasn't watching that carefully, and the
injury came fairly late in the game.  I must say that I was concerned
about Ochai when he took the charge and hit his head against the floor,
but he thankfully seems to be okay.  And as for McCormack's sore foot,
it sure didn't seem to bother him much against Villanova; he had a monster
game.  So, health-wise, both teams would seem to have their usual complement
of players available, though maybe with a slight edge to the Jayhawks,
depending on just how sore Bacot's ankle might be on Monday.

The average of the various prognostications is 6 points in favor of Kansas,
or a couple of possessions.  The average predicted scores make it 79 to 73.
The Big 12 has been the dominant conference all season.  Time to show the
Tarheels what Big 12 basketball is like (yeah, yeah, they took down Baylor;
will lightning strike twice?).

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UNC     KU      Defensive Stats      UNC     KU
Points/Game         78.1    78.4     Opp Points/Game     71.3    67.2
Avg Score Margin    +6.9   +11.2     Opp Effective FG %  48.6    46.2
Assists/Game        15.1    15.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.6     9.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.9    37.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     28.2    25.6
Effective FG %      52.0    53.9     Blocks/Game          3.9     4.3
Off Rebound %       29.3    32.0     Steals/Game          5.3     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.303   0.327     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.5    15.9
Turnover %          14.2    15.0

My Stats Comparison        KU             UNC
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.71           -0.07    
inconsistency          9.73           13.38    
trend                 +0.08 ± 0.14    +0.37 ± 0.19
mental toughness      -0.14 ± 0.23    +0.07 ± 0.28
average total pts      145.58         149.39    

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Kentucky, Miami, and Baylor, the last of
which Kansas played twice, giving us four scores to compare:

KU  -18 UK  at home (-22 neutral court)
UNC -29 UK  neutral (-29 neutral court)
KU   +7 UNC neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  +26 Mia neutral (+26 neutral court)
UNC -28 Mia on road (-24 neutral court)
KU  +50 UNC neutral (+50 neutral court)

KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)
UNC  +7 BU  neutral ( +7 neutral court)     UNC  +7 BU  neutral ( +7 neutral court)
KU  -13 UNC neutral (-13 neutral court)     KU  +13 UNC neutral (+13 neutral court)

Three of the comparisons favor Kansas, including a whopper (Miami), while one
favors North Carolina.  The average is 14.25 points in favor of Kansas, but with
a monster scatter of 26.30 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Caleb Love (guard)
most points        Armando Bacot (forward)
most rebounds      Armando Bacot (forward)
most assists       R. J. Davis (guard)
most steals        R. J. Davis (guard)
most blocks        Armando Bacot (forward)
most turnovers     Caleb Love (guard)
most fouls         Armando Bacot (forward)

Bacot rolled his ankle against Duke in yesterday's game, but did return to the
game; the question is, how will that ankle feel after a night of sleep?  Reserve
guard Anthony Harris and reserve forward Dawson Garcia are out for the rest of
the season; both averaged double-digits in minutes (out of nine players who did so).

                                                          33-6           29-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     North Carolina
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.26   80   74       69       #  2   #  5    # 17   # 33
Sagarin Predictor       +5.22   80   74       67.2     #  2   #  5    # 20   # 33 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.51   80   74                #  2   #  5    # 16   # 33 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.79   79   75                #  1   #  5    #  2   # 33
Sagarin Eigenvector     +7.99   81   73       77    
Massey                  +5.00   78   73       65       #  1   #  3    # 13   # 16
Pomeroy                 +5.42   78   72                #  3   #  3    # 16   # 23
Greenfield              +4.00   78   74                #  4   #  1    # 19   # 24
Dunkel                  +7.50   76   69                #  1           #  8
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   78   74                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +5.28   81   75       67.3     #  3   #  2    # 15   # 24
Real Time                                              #  4   #  3    # 25   # 48 
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   77   72       75       #  1   #  6    # 24   #  8
DPPI                    +3.95   78   71       61.6     #  4   #  2    # 20   # 30 
ESPN BPI                +5.90                 70.5     #  6   #  9    # 19   # 23
Whitlock                +7.43                          #  3   #  2    # 28   # 47
Colley Matrix           +6.22                          #  1   #  3    # 14   # 37
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 31 
LRMC                                                   #  6   #  2    # 22   # 30
common opponents       +14.25         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 26
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           # 18
Pomeroy defense                                        # 17           # 39
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 65           # 40
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +6.01   78.8 73.1     69.1
scatter                  2.45    1.5  1.7      5.1

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 27 Michigan State              87  74    +7.34    +5.66
HOME   #224 Tarleton State              88  62   +25.73    +0.27
HOME   #232 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +26.25    +2.75
NEUT   # 82 North Texas                 71  59   +12.53    -0.53
NEUT   # 53 Dayton                      73  74    +9.91   -10.91
NEUT   #102 Iona College                96  83   +14.71    -1.71
AWAY   # 44 St. John's                  95  75    +6.82   +13.18
HOME   #158 UTEP                        78  52   +21.94    +4.06
HOME   #115 Missouri                   102  65   +18.59   +18.41
HOME   #132 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.79   -11.79
HOME   #116 Nevada                      88  61   +18.65    +8.35
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +18.13    -9.13
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State              74  63    +6.50    +4.50
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.03    -7.97
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                  62  61   +12.41   -11.41
HOME   # 62 West Virginia               85  59   +12.86   +13.14
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                    67  64    +5.33    -2.33
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                78  75    +9.07    -6.07
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.79    -1.79
HOME   #  8 Kentucky                    62  80    +4.33   -22.33
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                  70  61    +7.59    +1.41
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      83  59    +2.99   +21.01
AWAY   # 16 Texas                       76  79    +2.52    -5.52
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    71  69   +10.15    -8.15
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State              76  62   +11.32    +2.68
AWAY   # 62 West Virginia               71  58    +8.04    +4.96
HOME   # 73 Kansas State               102  83   +13.89    +5.11
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      70  80    -1.83    -8.17
AWAY   # 38 TCU                         64  74    +6.24   -16.24
HOME   # 38 TCU                         72  68   +11.06    -7.06
HOME   # 16 Texas                       70  63    +7.34    -0.34
NEUT   # 62 West Virginia               87  63   +10.45   +13.55
NEUT   # 38 TCU                         75  62    +8.65    +4.35
NEUT   # 12 Texas Tech                  74  65    +2.38    +6.62
NEUT   #210 Texas Southern              83  56   +22.55    +4.45
NEUT   # 45 Creighton                   79  72    +9.30    -2.30
NEUT   # 32 Providence                  66  61    +7.78    -2.78
NEUT   # 59 Miami-Florida               76  50   +10.27   +15.73
NEUT   #  9 Villanova                   81  65    +2.04   +13.96
NEUT   # 20 North Carolina                        +5.22             0.672

Here is North Carolina's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #267 Loyola-Maryland             83  67   +23.48    -7.48
HOME   #196 Brown                       94  87   +19.09   -12.09
AWAY   #151 College of Charleston       94  83   +11.66    -0.66
NEUT   # 10 Purdue                      84  93    -3.11    -5.89
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   72  89    -3.55   -13.45
HOME   #223 NC Asheville                72  53   +20.35    -1.35
HOME   # 21 Michigan                    72  51    +3.18   +17.82
AWAY   #122 Georgia Tech                79  62    +9.39    +7.61
HOME   #254 Elon                        80  63   +22.86    -5.86
HOME   # 90 Furman                      74  61   +10.30    +2.70
NEUT   #  8 Kentucky                    69  98    -3.30   -25.70
HOME   #173 Appalachian State           70  50   +17.47    +2.53
AWAY   #120 Boston College              91  65    +9.08   +16.92
AWAY   # 47 Notre Dame                  73  78    +1.72    -6.72
HOME   # 64 Virginia                    74  58    +7.86    +8.14
HOME   #122 Georgia Tech                88  65   +14.21    +8.79
AWAY   # 59 Miami-Florida               57  85    +2.64   -30.64
AWAY   # 39 Wake Forest                 76  98    +1.06   -23.06
HOME   # 25 Virginia Tech               78  68    +3.81    +6.19
HOME   #120 Boston College              58  47   +13.90    -2.90
HOME   #114 NC State                   100  80   +13.18    +6.82
AWAY   # 99 Louisville                  90  83    +6.72    +0.28
HOME   #  7 Duke                        67  87    -1.11   -18.89
AWAY   # 71 Clemson                     79  77    +3.62    -1.62
HOME   # 81 Florida State               94  74    +9.64   +10.36
HOME   #148 Pittsburgh                  67  76   +16.24   -25.24
AWAY   # 25 Virginia Tech               65  57    -1.01    +9.01
HOME   # 99 Louisville                  70  63   +11.54    -4.54
AWAY   #114 NC State                    84  74    +8.36    +1.64
HOME   # 61 Syracuse                    88  79    +7.61    +1.39
AWAY   #  7 Duke                        94  81    -5.93   +18.93
NEUT   # 64 Virginia                    63  43    +5.45   +14.55
NEUT   # 25 Virginia Tech               59  72    +1.40   -14.40
NEUT   # 56 Marquette                   95  63    +4.86   +27.14
NEUT   #  5 Baylor                      93  86    -4.64   +11.64
NEUT   # 11 UCLA                        73  66    -2.96    +9.96
NEUT   #127 Saint Peter's               69  49   +11.92    +8.08
NEUT   #  7 Duke                        81  77    -3.52    +7.52
NEUT   #  2 Kansas                                -5.22             0.328