×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Villanova game
- asteroid
-
Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 600
- Thank you received: 3139
2 years 7 months ago #28971
by asteroid
After looking over the various statistics, what stands out the most about
Villanova? They only scored 36 points against Baylor. Wow. Yes, that was
their low water mark for the season. In commenting on the 2018 game against
Kansas, during which Villanova made 18 treys, Jay Wright noted that they've
sometimes been the victim of such otherworldly shooting, and he referenced
this year's Baylor game. But Baylor only scored 57 in that game. Looks to
me like neither team shot it all that well.
The second thing that jumps out at you? Pomeroy has Villanova ranked #345
in tempo. That's out of 358 Division I teams. Talk about playing slow!
Who will dictate the tempo? Frankly, I have a hard time believing that
anybody can slow down Remy. Advantage: Jayhawks.
The word is that Villanova is excellent at free throws. I wish Greenfield
would include statistics like that, as well as three-point percentage made,
percentage of attempts that are three-pointers, and so on. But Kansas gets
to the charity stripe more frequently than Villanova does. Maybe that's
because of Villanova's slower tempo.
The number of college basketball games still being played has dropped off
significantly, but yesterday we had The Basketball Classic championship
game between Fresno State and Coastal Carolina, so the computer ratings
did see a slight tweak to them. Interestingly, Pomeroy had Kansas with
the #17 defensive efficiency and Villanova with the #18 defensive
efficiency, but now those rankings have swapped. Numerically, they're
the same to the precision that Pomeroy shows. Kansas does have the better
offensive efficiency, but not by much, leading to a predicted margin of
less than a point for Kansas.
Here's what I don't understand about Dunkel's predictions. His latest
rankings have Kansas as #1 and Villanova at #5. The game is on a
neutral court. So why is Dunkel picking Villanova by 1 point? If he
was taking injuries into account, you would think he'd take Kansas,
given the status of Justin Moore. Go figure. Maybe the ranking is
based on overall performance, while the prediction is more limited to
recent performance. For example, Sagarin favors Kansas in Predictor,
Golden Mean, Eigenvector analysis, and Overall, but NOT in Recent Games.
Villanova has played all four tournament games above expectation, though
not by huge amounts, while Kansas did have a couple of below expectation
games in the tournament.
Anyway, other than Sagarin Recent Games and Dunkel, the only other
prognosticator going with Villanova is ESPN's BPI, though the margin
is only 0.2 points, meaning overtime. However, the comparison that
really stands out is the common opponents one, in which Kansas is favored
by 10.6 points. The Jayhawks handled Baylor and St. John's so much better
than Villanova did. The Creighton and Providence comparisons are more of
a wash, though Villanova's Creighton games show a Jekyll and Hyde
characteristics to them.
The average is 2.4 points in favor of Kansas. How much is Justin Moore
worth? A couple of points, apparently, as Vegas takes such things into
account, and Vegas has Kansas by 4.5 points (according to Dunkel, who
posted his prediction early in the week; the Vegas margin could have
changed since then). Greenfield usually mimics Vegas fairly well, and
he has the margin at 4.0 points.
Remy's no longer a secret. Opponents are now aware that he adds another
dimension to the Jayhawks. Still, the computer ratings don't fully
reflect the loss of Justin Moore and what a healthy Remy Martin brings
to Kansas. There's reason for optimism, but don't expect a runaway
game. Jay Wright is too good a coach, and Villanova still has other
weapons. But they don't have a deep bench. Only six players average
double-digit minutes, and the leader in minutes played is out for the
game, so the Villanova bench is going to be tested. By comparison,
Kansas has eight players averaging double-digit minutes, and they're
all available.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Vi KU Defensive Stats Vi KU
Points/Game 71.9 78.3 Opp Points/Game 62.2 67.3
Avg Score Margin +9.7 +11.1 Opp Effective FG % 46.8 46.1
Assists/Game 11.9 15.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.8 9.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.9 38.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.1 25.7
Effective FG % 51.6 53.7 Blocks/Game 2.2 4.3
Off Rebound % 29.3 31.9 Steals/Game 6.1 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.301 0.329 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.0 16.1
Turnover % 13.3 15.1
My Stats Comparison KU Vi
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.71 +1.26
inconsistency 9.61 10.96
trend +0.03 ± 0.14 +0.02 ± 0.17
mental toughness -0.21 ± 0.23 -0.21 ± 0.24
average total pts 145.58 133.59
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, namely Baylor, Creighton, St. John's, and Providence.
Kansas played Baylor twice, home and away, while Villanova played Providence twice,
home and away, and both Creighton and St. John's three times, home, away, and
neutral court in their conference tournament, giving us ten scores to compare:
KU -10 BU on road ( -6 neutral court) KU +24 BU at home (+20 neutral court)
Vil -21 BU on road (-17 neutral court) Vil -21 BU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU +11 Vil neutral (+11 neutral court) KU +37 Vil neutral (+37 neutral court)
KU +7 Cre neutral ( +7 neutral court) KU +7 Cre neutral ( +7 neutral court)
Vil -20 Cre on road (-16 neutral court) Vil +34 Cre at home (+30 neutral court)
KU +23 Vil neutral (+23 neutral court) KU -23 Vil neutral (-23 neutral court)
KU +7 Cre neutral ( +7 neutral court)
Vil +6 Cre neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU +1 Vil neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court) KU +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court)
Vil +11 StJ at home ( +7 neutral court) Vil +6 StJ on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +17 Vil neutral (+17 neutral court) KU +14 Vil neutral (+14 neutral court)
KU +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court)
Vil +1 StJ neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU +23 Vil neutral (+23 neutral court)
KU +5 Pro neutral ( +5 neutral court) KU +5 Pro neutral ( +5 neutral court)
Vil +5 Pro on road ( +9 neutral court) Vil +2 Pro at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU -4 Vil neutral ( -4 neutral court) KU +7 Vil neutral ( +7 neutral court)
Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas while two favor Villanova. The average is a
whopping 10.6 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 16.7 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Justin Moore (guard)
most points Collin Gillespie (guard)
most rebounds Jermaine Samuels (forward)
most assists Collin Gillespie (guard)
most steals Brandon Slater (forward)
most blocks Jermaine Samuels (forward)
most turnovers Collin Gillespie (guard)
most fouls Brandon Slater (forward)
Justin Moore suffered an Achilles injury in the Elite Eight game and will be out
for the Kansas game. Reserve guard Jordan Longino is out with a knee injury; he
was ninth on the team in minutes played per game.
32-6 30-7
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Villanova
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +1.36 69 68 55 # 2 # 6 # 7 # 5
Sagarin Predictor +1.31 69 68 55.1 # 4 # 6 # 8 # 5
Sagarin Golden Mean +1.68 69 67 # 2 # 6 # 7 # 5
Sagarin Recent Games -0.87 68 69 # 2 # 6 # 1 # 5
Sagarin Eigenvector +4.12 70 66 65
Massey +2.00 69 67 56 # 2 # 3 # 5 # 4
Pomeroy +0.77 67 66 # 4 # 4 # 9 # 11
Greenfield +4.00 68.5 64.5 # 4 # 6 # 7 # 5
Dunkel -1.00 67.5 68.5 # 1 # 5
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.50 68 64
Dolphin Predictive +1.13 70 69 54.0 # 3 # 4 # 8 # 6
Real Time # 4 # 3 # 8 # 15
Seven Overtimes +3.00 72 69 # 2 # 6 # 14 # 20
DPPI +4.40 72 68 63.0 # 4 # 2 # 11 # 11
ESPN BPI -0.20 49.2 # 8 # 14 # 4 # 11
Whitlock +2.20 # 3 # 2 # 10 # 9
Colley Matrix +1.85 # 1 # 3 # 3 # 5
NCAA NET # 6 # 8
LRMC # 6 # 2 # 13 # 7
common opponents +10.60
Massey composite # 3 # 9
Pomeroy offense # 7 # 9
Pomeroy defense # 18 # 17
Pomeroy tempo # 61 #345
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.40 69.2 67.2 56.8
scatter 2.72 1.5 1.7 5.5
Here is Kansas' season, including both potential opponents on Monday, should the
Jayhawks advance:
CUMU.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- ----- -----
NEUT # 27 Michigan State 87 74 +6.98 +6.02
HOME #225 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.43 +0.57
HOME #232 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.94 +3.06
NEUT # 82 North Texas 71 59 +12.20 -0.20
NEUT # 53 Dayton 73 74 +9.53 -10.53
NEUT #105 Iona College 96 83 +14.45 -1.45
AWAY # 43 St. John's 95 75 +6.31 +13.69
HOME #158 UTEP 78 52 +21.61 +4.39
HOME #115 Missouri 102 65 +18.21 +18.79
HOME #132 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.44 -11.44
HOME #116 Nevada 88 61 +18.33 +8.67
HOME #113 George Mason 76 67 +17.74 -8.74
AWAY # 41 Oklahoma State 74 63 +6.12 +4.88
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.39 -7.61
HOME # 55 Iowa State 62 61 +12.05 -11.05
HOME # 62 West Virginia 85 59 +12.50 +13.50
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 67 64 +5.02 -2.02
AWAY # 73 Kansas State 78 75 +8.71 -5.71
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.43 -1.43
HOME # 9 Kentucky 62 80 +3.94 -21.94
AWAY # 55 Iowa State 70 61 +7.23 +1.77
HOME # 5 Baylor 83 59 +2.63 +21.37
AWAY # 18 Texas 76 79 +2.23 -5.23
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.84 -7.84
HOME # 41 Oklahoma State 76 62 +10.94 +3.06
AWAY # 62 West Virginia 71 58 +7.68 +5.32
HOME # 73 Kansas State 102 83 +13.53 +5.47
AWAY # 5 Baylor 70 80 -2.19 -7.81
AWAY # 39 TCU 64 74 +5.92 -15.92
HOME # 39 TCU 72 68 +10.74 -6.74
HOME # 18 Texas 70 63 +7.05 -0.05
NEUT # 62 West Virginia 87 63 +10.09 +13.91
NEUT # 39 TCU 75 62 +8.33 +4.67
NEUT # 12 Texas Tech 74 65 +2.02 +6.98
NEUT #210 Texas Southern 83 56 +22.18 +4.82
NEUT # 45 Creighton 79 72 +8.89 -1.89
NEUT # 31 Providence 66 61 +7.35 -2.35
NEUT # 59 Miami-Florida 76 50 +9.88 +16.12
NEUT # 8 Villanova +1.31 0.551 0.551
NEUT # 6 Duke +1.14 0.544 0.300 or
NEUT # 20 North Carolina +4.95 0.684 0.377
Here is Villanova's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #261 Mount St. Mary's 91 51 +26.72 +13.28
AWAY # 11 UCLA 77 86 -1.84 -7.16
HOME #279 Howard 100 81 +27.94 -8.94
NEUT # 7 Tennessee 71 53 -0.04 +18.04
NEUT # 10 Purdue 74 80 +0.41 -6.41
NEUT #216 La Salle 72 46 +21.16 +4.84
AWAY #188 Pennsylvania 71 56 +17.04 -2.04
HOME #157 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 81 52 +20.24 +8.76
NEUT # 61 Syracuse 67 53 +8.66 +5.34
AWAY # 5 Baylor 36 57 -3.50 -17.50
AWAY # 45 Creighton 59 79 +5.17 -25.17
HOME # 36 Xavier-Ohio 71 58 +8.93 +4.07
AWAY # 35 Seton Hall 73 67 +4.11 +1.89
HOME # 45 Creighton 75 41 +9.99 +24.01
AWAY # 93 DePaul 79 64 +9.23 +5.77
AWAY # 36 Xavier-Ohio 64 60 +4.11 -0.11
HOME #108 Butler 82 42 +15.81 +24.19
HOME # 56 Marquette 54 57 +10.75 -13.75
AWAY #136 Georgetown 85 74 +13.54 -2.54
HOME # 93 DePaul 67 43 +14.05 +9.95
HOME # 43 St. John's 73 62 +9.82 +1.18
AWAY # 56 Marquette 73 83 +5.93 -15.93
HOME # 16 Connecticut 85 74 +5.58 +5.42
AWAY # 43 St. John's 75 69 +5.00 +1.00
HOME # 35 Seton Hall 73 67 +8.93 -2.93
AWAY # 31 Providence 89 64 +3.63 +21.37
HOME #136 Georgetown 74 66 +18.36 -10.36
AWAY # 16 Connecticut 69 71 +0.76 -2.76
HOME # 31 Providence 76 74 +8.45 -6.45
AWAY #108 Butler 78 59 +10.99 +8.01
NEUT # 43 St. John's 66 65 +7.41 -6.41
NEUT # 16 Connecticut 63 60 +3.17 -0.17
NEUT # 45 Creighton 54 48 +7.58 -1.58
NEUT #152 Delaware 80 60 +17.60 +2.40
NEUT # 22 Ohio State 71 61 +4.28 +5.72
NEUT # 21 Michigan 63 55 +4.24 +3.76
NEUT # 2 Houston 50 44 -1.70 +7.70
NEUT # 4 Kansas -1.31 0.449
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, hoshi and this user have 2 others thankyou
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page: