Has KU really won fewer NC's than we should?

The answer is yes but not exactly like it might seem. When it comes to the elite teams then we compare pretty poorly. Here is a list of all the NC's since 1985 (the beginning of the 64 team tourney)



19 different schools have won at least 1 NC since 1985. KU has 2, But 5 schools have 3 or more and 2 other schools have 2. That puts us in very elite company but an elite group of 8 schools who have won multiple NC's. That is nice but I don;t think any of us are satisfied being in an elite group of 8. We are a top 4 school at least. So from this standpoint, we are in a decent position but clearly we are below 5 schools who have won 3 or more NC's with UConn and Villanova being two of those schools.

But there is another way (and a very valid way) to look at it. That is by asking the probabilistic question, "How many championships should we have won given our seeding." Well, the answer for Kansas is that since 1985 given our various seeds, probability says we should have won 2.35 NC's But that includes this season. We have won 2. So if we win this season we will actually be above the probability curve. If we do not win this season we will be below the probability curve. The problem even with this method is that these other elite programs are much farther above the curve. First, let me give you the curve. This curve shows the probability of winning a NC for every seed.



We can squabble over this curve if you like but it will make little difference. Using this curve I have calculated every schools probability of winning every season then summed up all the seasons. Duke, for instance, should have won 2.44 NC's yet they have won 5. They have obviously done extremely well in the NCAA tourney. UConn is even better projected to win only 0.99 NC's yet they have won 4. That is just incredible. With a win this season we will have 3 NC's since 1985. That would probabilistically be better than expected. So the answer to the question above would be that we have won just about the right number of championships or even slightly more. But that does not alleviate the sting that a handful of programs have really excelled in the NCAA Tourney whereas we have just simply done about like expected. So I guess the slightly encouraging thing is that with a win this season we will be probabilistically in track or even slightly above. But we will still not be at the level of Duke, UNC, UCONN, Kentucky and Villanova. But close, or at least closer.