predictions for Miami game

There are six teams left standing in the Big Dance, and three of them are from
the ACC.  Has the ACC been underrated?  If so, that would make the margin for
Kansas over Miami shrink.  By how much is a very good question.

Miami has a positive trend, and it is highly statistically significant.  The
Hurricanes also have a positive mental toughness rating, and it is statistically
significant as well.  Those two factors alone are worth an additional 10.9 points,
more than enough to erase the 9.2 point margin that Sagarin Predictor is giving
the Jayhawks.  Meanwhile, the trend for the Jayhawks is slightly negative, but
not statistically significant.  The mental toughness rating for the Jayhawks is
also negative, but that helps against a weaker team, and Miami is rated about
9 points lower than Kansas.  So those two factors are worth an additional 0.9
points for the Jayhawks.  Average the effect for the two teams, and we're looking
at a 4.17 point margin for Kansas.

Dunkel is the optimist once again, picking the Jayhawks to win by 14.5 points,
with Seven Overtimes also going with a double-digit margin of 12 points, while
ESPN's BPI is picking Kansas by 10.6 points.  Everybody else is in the single
digit range, with Vegas being the most pessimistic at just 6 points, though the
trend analysis mentioned above is even more pessimistic at 4.2 points, and the
commmon opponents analysis needs to round up to give the Jayhawks a mere 1 point
margin.  The ESPN Events Invitational gave us two common opponents, namely
Dayton and North Texas, from the non-conference portion of the season, so long
ago, which both favor Kansas.  Miami is a much better team now, and the Iowa State
tournament comparison favors the Hurricanes.

Despite the much smaller number of games, RealTime apparently couldn't keep up
and hasn't posted a prediction for the Miami game; indeed, he hasn't even
processed the win over Providence yet.  Meanwhile, the DPPI is having a computer
issue and doesn't have a formal prediction for the game, though is estimating a
7 point win for Kansas.  The average is 8.2 points, with a scatter of 3.1 points.
The Sagarin Predictor ratings make the Miami game slightly easier than either
the Providence or Creighton games.  Would love for that to be true, but it's
hard to overlook the trend for Miami, plus the overall tournament success for
the ACC.  At least we have a good scouting report on Charlie Moore!

Miami has five players averaging more than 30 minutes per game.  From there it
drops to fewer than 14 minutes per game, so one strategy might be to try and get
Miami into foul trouble, because their bench hasn't played much.  Or you could
allow those starters to remain in the game and assume they'll develop tired legs
late.  By comparison, Kansas has just two players averaging more than 30 minutes
per game.

Pomeroy's effective offense and defense rankings suggest that Miami has a much
better offense than it does a defense.  The Jayhawks' defense has been a work
in progress this season, and held Providence to just 17 first-half points.
The Friars' points per possession was barely over 0.5 in that half, a rather
incredible statistic.  The second half was a totally different story, so the
Jayhawks' defense may be improved, but is still inconsistent.  Some of the
defensive improvement is courtesy of Remy, who played with a fairly short
leash earlier in the season when his defense was lacking.

One thing worth mentioning at this point:  you've all heard the old saying
"Offense wins games, defense wins championships."  The more popular version
this year has been "defense travels".  It makes sense; offense can often
have trouble adjusting to an unfamiliar venue.  Defense should be more
consistent.  So as an experiment, one of my espn.com Tournament Challenge
brackets was based on which team had the better defensive efficiency rating
according to Pomeroy.  That bracket had Texas Tech cutting down the nets.
Well, that bracket managed 370 points so far, and the maximum possible is
also 370 points, meaning that all the winners have been eliminated from
that bracket, including #2 San Diego State, #3 Tennessee, though #4
Oklahoma State wasn't even eligible.  #5 Iowa State is out, as is #6 LSU.
#7 VCU didn't even make the tournament field.  #8 Houston lost today.
#9 Auburn lost last weekend.  #10 Gonzaga is gonzo.  #11 Arkansas lost
to Duke today.  #12 Saint Mary's fell last weekend.  #13 Baylor was the
first of the 1 seeds to fall.  #14 UCLA lost to daggum North Carolina.
#15 Texas is out, as is #16 TCU.  The highest ranked defensive team
still left in the tournament is #17 Villanova.  How do we explain that?
I agree with the belief that defense wins championships, that defense
travels.  It just doesn't do well in the espn.com Tournament Challenge!
Meanwhile, the bracket based on the Pomeroy offensive efficiency ranking
has 540 points, but has also maxed out at 540 points.  It's currently
tied for second among my multiple brackets.

Miami has played 5 games out of 36 above expectation by more than 9 points,
two of which have been in the Big Dance.  Meanwhile, Kansas has played 5
games out of 37 below expectation by more than 9 points, the most recent
being the TCU road game.  That's 10 chances out of 73 of a Kansas loss,
or about 14 percent, somewhat more optimistic than computed from the
ratings.  Kansas has been remarkably consistent for the last 15 games.
The only double-digit departures from expectation were the aforementioned
TCU road game and the Big 12 Tournament game against West Virginia.  Keep
up that sort of consistency, and a trip to the Final Four is highly
probable.  After that, it's a crap shoot; all one-possession affairs,
unless somehow Saint Peter's survives that side of the bracket.  Did you
hear that Sister Jean has entered the transfer portal and is heading to
Saint Peter's?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Mi      KU      Defensive Stats      Mi      KU
Points/Game         74.6    78.4     Opp Points/Game     70.2    67.7
Avg Score Margin    +4.4   +10.6     Opp Effective FG %  52.5    46.3
Assists/Game        14.3    15.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.1    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   30.7    37.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.9    25.5
Effective FG %      53.8    53.6     Blocks/Game          3.2     4.3
Off Rebound %       20.2    32.1     Steals/Game          8.9     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.290   0.326     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.7    16.1
Turnover %          12.5    15.1

My Stats Comparison        KU             Mi 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.62           +1.17    
inconsistency          9.39           10.93    
trend                 -0.04 ± 0.15    +0.47 ± 0.16
mental toughness      -0.21 ± 0.23    +0.43 ± 0.23
average total pts      146.11         144.81    

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Dayton, North Texas, and Iowa State, the last
of which Kansas played twice, so we have four scores to compare:

KU   -1 Day neutral ( -1 neutral court)
Mia -16 Day neutral (-16 neutral court)
KU  +15 Mia neutral (+15 neutral court)

KU  +12 UNT neutral (+12 neutral court)
Mia  +6 UNT neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +6 Mia neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
Mia +14 ISU neutral (+14 neutral court)     Mia +14 ISU neutral (+14 neutral court)
KU   -1 Mia neutral ( -1 neutral court)     KU  -17 Mia neutral (-17 neutral court)

Two of the comparisons favor Kansas (from the non-conference portion of the season
four months ago) while two favor Miami (from the NCAA Tournament), reflecting the
positive trend for Miami .  The average is just 0.75 points in favor of Kansas, but
with a scatter of 13.52 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kameron McGusty (guard)
most points        Kameron McGusty (guard)
most rebounds      Jordan Miller (guard)
most assists       Charlie Moore (guard)
most steals        Charlie Moore (guard)
most blocks        Sam Waardenburg (forward)
most turnovers     Charlie Moore (guard)
most fouls         Charlie Moore (guard)

Reserve guard Harlond Beverly is out for the season with a back injury.  He
was eighth on the team in minutes played per game.

                                                          31-6           26-10
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Miami
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +8.93   78   69       79       #  4   #  6    # 46   # 52
Sagarin Predictor       +9.20   78   69       83.1     #  5   #  6    # 54   # 52 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.45   78   69                #  2   #  6    # 37   # 52 
Sagarin Recent Games    +4.90   76   71                #  2   #  6    # 13   # 52
Sagarin Eigenvector     +9.19   78   69       79    
Massey                  +7.00   78   71       74       #  3   #  3    # 30   # 35
Pomeroy                 +7.18   78   71                #  5   #  4    # 35   # 43
Greenfield              +6.00   76.5 70.5              #  4   #  5    # 47   # 50
Dunkel                 +14.50   83   69                #  4           # 21
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.00   77   71                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +8.65   81   73       77.0     #  4   #  4    # 31   # 48
Real Time                                              #  5   #  4    # 46   # 74 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   79   67       80       #  3   #  6    # 82   # 38
DPPI                                                   #  4   #  2    #      #    
ESPN BPI               +10.60                 83.6     #  8   # 13    # 46   # 43
Whitlock                +9.81                          #  3   #  2    # 53   # 67
Colley Matrix           +8.45                          #  2   #  3    # 27   # 70
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 62 
LRMC                                                   #  6   #  2    # 39   # 52
common opponents        +0.75         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 53
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           # 18
Pomeroy defense                                        # 23           #114
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 63           #139
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.23   78.4 70.0     79.4
scatter                  3.10    1.9  1.6      3.3

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher remaining seeds:
                                                                             CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----    -----
NEUT   # 27 Michigan State              87  74    +6.64    +6.36
HOME   #225 Tarleton State              88  62   +25.11    +0.89
HOME   #232 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.61    +3.39
NEUT   # 82 North Texas                 71  59   +11.84    +0.16
NEUT   # 53 Dayton                      73  74    +9.15   -10.15
NEUT   #105 Iona College                96  83   +14.08    -1.08
AWAY   # 44 St. John's                  95  75    +6.00   +14.00
HOME   #161 UTEP                        78  52   +21.27    +4.73
HOME   #115 Missouri                   102  65   +17.89   +19.11
HOME   #132 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +19.08   -11.08
HOME   #116 Nevada                      88  61   +18.15    +8.85
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +17.36    -8.36
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.80    +5.20
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.69    -7.31
HOME   # 56 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.70   -10.70
HOME   # 62 West Virginia               85  59   +12.15   +13.85
AWAY   # 32 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.75    -1.75
AWAY   # 73 Kansas State                78  75    +8.38    -5.38
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.11    -1.11
HOME   #  9 Kentucky                    62  80    +3.61   -21.61
AWAY   # 56 Iowa State                  70  61    +6.90    +2.10
HOME   #  4 Baylor                      83  59    +2.28   +21.72
AWAY   # 18 Texas                       76  79    +1.94    -4.94
HOME   # 32 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.55    -7.55
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State              76  62   +10.60    +3.40
AWAY   # 62 West Virginia               71  58    +7.35    +5.65
HOME   # 73 Kansas State               102  83   +13.18    +5.82
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                      70  80    -2.52    -7.48
AWAY   # 39 TCU                         64  74    +5.65   -15.65
HOME   # 39 TCU                         72  68   +10.45    -6.45
HOME   # 18 Texas                       70  63    +6.74    +0.26
NEUT   # 62 West Virginia               87  63    +9.75   +14.25
NEUT   # 39 TCU                         75  62    +8.05    +4.95
NEUT   # 12 Texas Tech                  74  65    +1.71    +7.29
NEUT   #210 Texas Southern              83  56   +21.82    +5.18
NEUT   # 46 Creighton                   79  72    +8.54    -1.54
NEUT   # 31 Providence                  66  61    +7.00    -2.00
NEUT   # 54 Miami-Florida                         +9.20             0.817    0.817
NEUT   #  7 Villanova                             +0.98             0.538    0.440
NEUT   #  6 Duke                                  +0.77             0.530    0.233

Here is Miami's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #256 Canisius                    77  67   +18.25    -8.25
HOME   # 99 Central Florida(UCF)        89  95    +6.78   -12.78
AWAY   #138 Florida Atlantic            68  66    +5.74    -3.74
HOME   #312 Florida A&M                 86  59   +22.52    +4.48
NEUT   # 53 Dayton                      60  76    -0.05   -15.95
NEUT   # 82 North Texas                 69  63    +2.64    +3.36
NEUT   # 23 Alabama                     64  96    -3.57   -28.43
AWAY   # 69 Penn State                  63  58    -1.46    +6.46
HOME   # 71 Clemson                     80  75    +3.69    +1.31
HOME   #262 Lipscomb                    76  59   +18.47    -1.47
NEUT   #193 Fordham                     72  66   +11.68    -5.68
HOME   #287 Stetson                     82  72   +20.40   -10.40
HOME   #114 NC State                    91  83    +8.45    -0.45
HOME   # 38 Wake Forest                 92  84    +1.15    +6.85
HOME   # 61 Syracuse                    88  87    +2.80    -1.80
AWAY   #  6 Duke                        76  74   -10.83   +12.83
AWAY   # 81 Florida State               64  65    +0.10    -1.10
HOME   # 20 North Carolina              85  57    -1.95   +29.95
HOME   # 81 Florida State               60  61    +4.90    -5.90
AWAY   # 25 Virginia Tech               78  75    -5.75    +8.75
AWAY   #124 Georgia Tech                73  62    +4.66    +6.34
HOME   # 48 Notre Dame                  64  68    +1.85    -5.85
AWAY   # 64 Virginia                    58  71    -1.67   -11.33
HOME   #124 Georgia Tech                79  70    +9.46    -0.46
AWAY   # 38 Wake Forest                 76  72    -3.65    +7.65
AWAY   #100 Louisville                  70  63    +2.07    +4.93
HOME   # 64 Virginia                    71  74    +3.13    -6.13
AWAY   #147 Pittsburgh                  85  64    +6.70   +14.30
HOME   # 25 Virginia Tech               70  71    -0.95    -0.05
AWAY   #119 Boston College              81  70    +4.34    +6.66
AWAY   # 61 Syracuse                    75  72    -2.00    +5.00
NEUT   #119 Boston College              71  69    +6.74    -4.74
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        76  80    -8.43    +4.43
NEUT   # 29 Southern California         68  66    -2.30    +4.30
NEUT   # 13 Auburn                      79  61    -7.07   +25.07
NEUT   # 56 Iowa State                  70  56    +0.10   +13.90
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                -9.20             0.183