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predictions for Providence game
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2 years 8 months ago #28860
by asteroid
So, no rubber match against Baylor is possible. Oh well. Instead, the Jayhawks
may well be facing the Cyclones for a third time, but, as the saying goes, one
game at a time.
Most of the usual prognosticators have their predictions up, so I thought I'd do
an early posting, with an update closer to game time with the last few additions.
Even RealTime decided to do a prediction, unlike for the earlier rounds or the
conference tournament.
Providence has fewer losses than Kansas, but they also have fewer wins. Three
conference games were canceled, and the Friars only played two conference tournament
games, losing to Creighton in the semifinals. They lost to Villanova twice, yet
finished a half game ahead of Villanova in the Big East conference standings,
winning the regular season.
Providence's defense isn't as good as Creighton's, but its offense is much better.
Their leading scorer is their center, suggesting that the Friars rely heavily on
an inside game. Pomeroy has Providence with the #283 tempo, meaning the Friars
do NOT play an uptempo style of game. It will be interesting to see which team
dictates the pace of the game. The two teams average 142.3 total points, and
that's what Vegas is expecting. Dunkel has it one point higher, while Sagarin
has it 3 points lower.
Providence has played only 7 of their 32 games above expectation by more than the
7 points that Sagarin's Overall ratings favor Kansas, but one of those was their
most recent game against Richmond, when they played almost 24 points above
expectation. They haven't had two consecutive above-expecation outings by
more than 7 points. They've also had a couple of real stinkers in there,
playing over 31 points below expectation at Marquette and over 28 points below
expectation in the conference tournament game against Creighton, which has
helped to boost the common opponent average to almost 8.9 points in favor of
Kansas.
The Jayhawks played a hair below expectation against Creighton after five
consecutive above-expectation games. Nine times in 36 games did Kansas play
below expectation by more than 7 points, and on two occasions, they did so
in two consecutive games. Those combine to 16 instances in 68 games when
the inconsistency would be enough for the Jayhawks to lose, for a 23.5 percent
chance of going home after Friday's game. That's actually a hair more
favorable than the average of the various computer rating probabilities.
Providence does have positive trend and mental toughness ratings, with the
latter having some statistical significance. The trend for Kansas is
effectively nil, and although the negative mental toughness rating actually
helps when playing weaker opponents, Providence isn't that much weaker, so
those ratings give Kansas only a 0.6 point boost, while they give Providence
a 5.1 point boost, effectively reducing the margin for Kansas from 7 points
to just 5 points.
Recall that in a six-game tournament, the odds are that you'll play one
game much better than you are, two games slightly better than average, two
games slightly worse than average, and one game much worse than average.
Providence has already used up their one "much better" game, and one of
their two "slightly better" games. If their second "slightly better" game
happens to fall in the 8 to 9 point range, they could win, but the odds
favor Kansas in this one. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have played one "slightly
better" and one "slightly worse" game; they can't afford to play a "much
worse" game and still advance in this tournament. They could play a second
"slightly worse" game in the 1 to 6 point range and still win, saving the
"much better" and the second "slightly better" for when they're really needed.
I really shouldn't make it sound like this is the way it will be. Anything
can happen in any one game, and even in a six-game tournament, the statistics
of small numbers don't guarantee what will happen. But when dealing with the
statistics of large numbers, things get more predictable. For example, the
long-term average is one-in-three road wins during conference season
(excluding the pandemic season when teams were playing in mostly empty
arenas), and season after season, the number of road wins in a 90-game
conference season happens to be within a couple games of 30. Like my high
school physics teacher liked to say: "In probability, there is certainty."
Vegas knows this very well. The house may lose tonight, but over the long
term, the house always wins. Just like the billions of air molecules in
your room, moving in random directions; the chances that they might all
move in the same direction and leave you trying to breathe in a vacuum
are vanishingly small. The point here is that the bigger the numbers, the
more predictable things become, and conversely, the smaller the numbers,
the less predictable things become. A six-game tournament is only slightly
more predictable than a three-game conference tournament, and there are no
guarantees that you'll play one of those "much worse than average" games.
Indeed, as I've said before, the champion is likely to be the team that
successfully avoids playing one of those "much worse" games.
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the optimist, giving Kansas an 11 point
margin, while RealTime is the pessimist at just 2 points, though Sagarin
Recent Games is not far behind at 3 points. But they all favor Kansas.
Colley actually has Providence ranked 5th, with Kansas ranked 2nd, and the
ratings imply an almost 4 point margin for Kansas. By contrast, Georgia
Tech's LRMC rating method has Providence ranked only #54, with Kansas at
#6. Unfortuantely, the LRMC doesn't show individual game predictions.
They do show a bracket, but it had Kansas facing Iowa, advancing, and
then losing to Auburn in the regional final.
It is worth noting that Self has a pretty good record in the Sweet Sixteen
round of games. The more time to prepare, the more thorough the scouting
report, it would seem. Round of 32 and Elite Eight games have proven to
be a greater challenge for the Jayhawks historically, when there are only
two days to prepare. How many times have the Jayhawks gone into an NCAA
Tournament as less than full strength? There was Haase's broken wrist,
Hinrich's grade 5 ankle sprain, covid issues, and so on. Some of you
could rattle more off better than I could. This tournament has a bit of
a different feel to it. Yes, DMac has the sore foot, Prison Mitch has
the knee sprain, but they're able to play, and fairly close to 100 percent,
but the wild card this time around is that Remy Martin seems to be returning
to full strength at just the right time. That gives the Jayhawks an added
dimension that they were lacking during the bulk of the conference season,
and as such, I don't think we've seen the Jayhawks' ceiling yet.
We're up to a 62 percent chance of getting to the Final Four, a 29 percent
chance of playing in the final, and a 10 percent chance of winning the
national championship.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Pr KU Defensive Stats Pr KU
Points/Game 71.8 78.7 Opp Points/Game 66.2 67.9
Avg Score Margin +5.7 +10.8 Opp Effective FG % 46.5 46.6
Assists/Game 13.3 15.5 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.8 10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.6 37.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.0 25.4
Effective FG % 50.5 54.0 Blocks/Game 3.7 4.1
Off Rebound % 28.3 32.4 Steals/Game 5.1 6.4
FTA/FGA 0.375 0.321 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.8 16.2
Turnover % 14.9 15.2
My Stats Comparison KU pr
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.58 -0.08
inconsistency 9.51 11.79
trend -0.02 ± 0.15 +0.20 ± 0.23
mental toughness -0.21 ± 0.23 +0.31 ± 0.25
average total pts 146.64 138.03
Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely St. John's, Creighton, and Texas Tech, with
each team having played its conference foe either two or three times, giving us seven
scores to compare:
KU -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
Pro +4 TTU at home ( 0 neutral court) Pro +4 TTU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -4 Pro neutral ( -4 neutral court) KU -1 Pro neutral ( -1 neutral court)
KU +9 TTU neutral ( +9 neutral court)
Pro +4 TTU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +9 Pro neutral ( +9 neutral court)
KU +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court) KU +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court)
Pro +10 StJ at home ( +6 neutral court) Pro +4 StJ on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +18 Pro neutral (+18 neutral court) KU +16 Pro neutral (+16 neutral court)
KU +7 Cre neutral ( +7 neutral court) KU +7 Cre neutral ( +7 neutral court)
Pro +21 Cre at home (+17 neutral court) Pro -27 Cre neutral (-27 neutral court)
KU -10 Pro neutral (-10 neutral court) KU +34 Pro neutral (+34 neutral court)
Providence's road game with Creighton got canceled, but they met in the conference
tournament, giving us the most favorable comparison for Kansas.
Four of the comparisons favor Kansas while three favor Providence. The average is
8.86 points, but with a scatter of 15.19 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Aljami Durham (guard)
most points Nate Watson (center)
most rebounds Noah Horchler (forward)
most assists Jared Bynum (guard)
most steals Jared Bynum (guard)
most blocks Noah Horchler (forward)
most turnovers Aljami Durham (guard)
most fouls Nate Watson (center)
30-6 27-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Providence
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +7.00 73 66 74 # 4 # 9 # 29 # 51
Sagarin Predictor +7.29 73 66 75.2 # 5 # 9 # 32 # 51
Sagarin Golden Mean +6.42 73 66 # 2 # 9 # 25 # 51
Sagarin Recent Games +3.27 71 68 # 4 # 9 # 9 # 51
Sagarin Eigenvector +11.16 75 64 83
Massey +8.00 76 68 78 # 3 # 3 # 22 # 52
Pomeroy +7.04 74 67 # 5 # 3 # 33 # 60
Greenfield +7.50 74 67 # 4 # 5 # 36 # 48
Dunkel +4.00 73.5 69.5 # 4 # 14
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.50 75 67
Dolphin Predictive +7.73 76 69 75.2 # 4 # 4 # 33 # 48
Real Time +2.00 71 69 53.5 # 5 # 4 # 18 # 51
Seven Overtimes # 4 # 6 # 31 # 43
DPPI # # # #
ESPN BPI +8.50 79.2 # 8 # 13 # 29 # 63
Whitlock +7.58 # 3 # 2 # 29 # 45
Colley Matrix +3.91 # 2 # 3 # 5 # 50
NCAA NET # 6 # 32
LRMC # 6 # 2 # 54 # 51
common opponents +8.86
Massey composite # 3 # 24
Pomeroy offense # 6 # 32
Pomeroy defense # 26 # 58
Pomeroy tempo # 64 #283
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +6.74 73.7 67.2 74.0
scatter 2.34 1.7 1.6 9.6
Here is Kansas' season, including the higher remaining seeds:
CUMU.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- ----- -----
NEUT # 27 Michigan State 87 74 +6.80 +6.20
HOME #225 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.20 +0.80
HOME #233 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.81 +3.19
NEUT # 83 North Texas 71 59 +12.06 -0.06
NEUT # 54 Dayton 73 74 +9.37 -10.37
NEUT #106 Iona College 96 83 +14.34 -1.34
AWAY # 45 St. John's 95 75 +6.29 +13.71
HOME #150 UTEP 78 52 +21.07 +4.93
HOME #115 Missouri 102 65 +18.14 +18.86
HOME #130 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.24 -11.24
HOME #116 Nevada 88 61 +18.20 +8.80
HOME #113 George Mason 76 67 +17.63 -8.63
AWAY # 40 Oklahoma State 74 63 +5.93 +5.07
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.70 -7.30
HOME # 52 Iowa State 62 61 +11.66 -10.66
HOME # 61 West Virginia 85 59 +12.30 +13.70
AWAY # 31 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.82 -1.82
AWAY # 73 Kansas State 78 75 +8.47 -5.47
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.14 -1.14
HOME # 9 Kentucky 62 80 +3.89 -21.89
AWAY # 52 Iowa State 70 61 +6.82 +2.18
HOME # 4 Baylor 83 59 +2.39 +21.61
AWAY # 16 Texas 76 79 +1.98 -4.98
HOME # 31 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.66 -7.66
HOME # 40 Oklahoma State 76 62 +10.77 +3.23
AWAY # 61 West Virginia 71 58 +7.46 +5.54
HOME # 73 Kansas State 102 83 +13.31 +5.69
AWAY # 4 Baylor 70 80 -2.45 -7.55
AWAY # 39 TCU 64 74 +5.72 -15.72
HOME # 39 TCU 72 68 +10.56 -6.56
HOME # 16 Texas 70 63 +6.82 +0.18
NEUT # 61 West Virginia 87 63 +9.88 +14.12
NEUT # 39 TCU 75 62 +8.14 +4.86
NEUT # 12 Texas Tech 74 65 +1.72 +7.28
NEUT #208 Texas Southern 83 56 +21.93 +5.07
NEUT # 46 Creighton 79 72 +8.73 -1.73
NEUT # 32 Providence +7.29 0.752 0.752
NEUT # 60 Miami-Florida +9.78 0.829 0.623
NEUT # 2 Arizona -0.72 0.472 0.294
NEUT # 1 Gonzaga -4.17 0.343 0.101
Here is Providence's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #228 Fairfield 80 73 +18.16 -11.16
HOME #310 Sacred Heart 92 64 +24.60 +3.40
AWAY # 28 Wisconsin 63 58 -2.71 +7.71
HOME #242 New Hampshire 69 58 +19.35 -8.35
NEUT # 72 Northwestern 77 72 +3.53 +1.47
NEUT # 64 Virginia 40 58 +2.76 -20.76
HOME #131 Saint Peter's 85 71 +12.02 +1.98
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 72 68 -3.15 +7.15
HOME #119 Rhode Island 66 52 +11.28 +2.72
HOME # 87 Vermont 68 58 +7.48 +2.52
HOME #348 Central Connecticut St. 68 53 +28.79 -13.79
AWAY # 17 Connecticut 57 53 -5.26 +9.26
HOME # 35 Seton Hall 70 65 +2.90 +2.10
AWAY # 92 DePaul 70 53 +3.14 +13.86
AWAY # 55 Marquette 56 88 -0.16 -31.84
HOME # 45 St. John's 83 73 +3.84 +6.16
HOME #136 Georgetown 83 75 +12.27 -4.27
HOME #108 Butler 69 62 +9.80 -2.80
AWAY # 37 Xavier-Ohio 65 62 -1.82 +4.82
HOME # 55 Marquette 65 63 +4.68 -2.68
AWAY # 45 St. John's 86 82 -1.00 +5.00
AWAY #136 Georgetown 71 52 +7.43 +11.57
HOME # 92 DePaul 76 73 +7.98 -4.98
HOME # 11 Villanova 84 89 -3.32 -1.68
AWAY #108 Butler 71 70 +4.96 -3.96
HOME # 37 Xavier-Ohio 99 92 +3.02 +3.98
HOME # 46 Creighton 72 51 +3.86 +17.14
AWAY # 11 Villanova 74 76 -8.16 +6.16
NEUT #108 Butler 65 61 +7.38 -3.38
NEUT # 46 Creighton 58 85 +1.44 -28.44
NEUT # 79 South Dakota State 66 57 +4.40 +4.60
NEUT # 75 Richmond 79 51 +4.18 +23.82
NEUT # 5 Kansas -7.29 0.248
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2 years 8 months ago #28868
by asteroid
The update, using the Sagarin Predictor ratings following Thursday's tournament
games. For the cumulative probability computation, I'm sticking with the
higher remaining seed. That means picking 2 seed Villanova out of the South
Region rather than 5 seed Houston. However, Houston has the higher Sagarin
Predictor rating of the two, and in fact would be favored by 0.7 points over
Kansas.
Rock Chalk!
My Stats Comparison KU Pr
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.57 -0.10
inconsistency 9.51 11.79
trend -0.02 ± 0.15 +0.20 ± 0.23
mental toughness -0.21 ± 0.23 +0.31 ± 0.25
average total pts 146.64 138.03
30-6 27-5
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Providence
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +6.95 73 66 74 # 4 # 9 # 29 # 52
Sagarin Predictor +7.24 73 66 75.0 # 4 # 9 # 31 # 52
Sagarin Golden Mean +6.39 73 66 # 2 # 9 # 24 # 52
Sagarin Recent Games +3.27 71 68 # 3 # 9 # 10 # 52
Sagarin Eigenvector +10.73 75 64 83
Massey +8.00 76 68 78 # 3 # 3 # 21 # 58
Pomeroy +6.97 73 66 # 5 # 4 # 32 # 60
Greenfield +7.00 74 67 # 4 # 5 # 36 # 48
Dunkel +4.00 73.5 69.5 # 4 # 15
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.50 75 67
Dolphin Predictive +7.73 76 69 75.2 # 4 # 4 # 32 # 48
Real Time +2.00 71 69 53.5 # 5 # 4 # 18 # 51
Seven Overtimes +4.00 73 69 70 # 3 # 6 # 31 # 43
DPPI +5.50 74 68.5 67.6 # 4 # 2 # 26 # 47
ESPN BPI +8.50 78.9 # 8 # 13 # 29 # 63
Whitlock +7.58 # 3 # 2 # 29 # 45
Colley Matrix +2.19 # 2 # 3 # 5 # 44
NCAA NET # 6 # 32
LRMC # 6 # 2 # 54 # 51
common opponents +8.86
Massey composite # 3 # 24
Pomeroy offense # 6 # 31
Pomeroy defense # 28 # 57
Pomeroy tempo # 64 #283
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +6.36 73.6 67.4 72.8
scatter 2.39 1.6 1.6 8.6
Here is Kansas' season, including the higher remaining seeds:
CUMU.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB. PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- ----- -----
NEUT # 27 Michigan State 87 74 +6.77 +6.23
HOME #224 Tarleton State 88 62 +25.23 +0.77
HOME #232 Stony Brook-NY 88 59 +25.75 +3.25
NEUT # 82 North Texas 71 59 +12.03 -0.03
NEUT # 54 Dayton 73 74 +9.33 -10.33
NEUT #106 Iona College 96 83 +14.29 -1.29
AWAY # 45 St. John's 95 75 +6.28 +13.72
HOME #158 UTEP 78 52 +21.42 +4.58
HOME #115 Missouri 102 65 +18.03 +18.97
HOME #132 Stephen F. Austin 80 72 +19.26 -11.26
HOME #116 Nevada 88 61 +18.27 +8.73
HOME #112 George Mason 76 67 +17.53 -8.53
AWAY # 40 Oklahoma State 74 63 +5.91 +5.09
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 67 75 -0.58 -7.42
HOME # 52 Iowa State 62 61 +11.64 -10.64
HOME # 62 West Virginia 85 59 +12.23 +13.77
AWAY # 32 Oklahoma 67 64 +4.86 -1.86
AWAY # 73 Kansas State 78 75 +8.49 -5.49
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 94 91 +4.20 -1.20
HOME # 9 Kentucky 62 80 +3.77 -21.77
AWAY # 52 Iowa State 70 61 +6.86 +2.14
HOME # 5 Baylor 83 59 +2.40 +21.60
AWAY # 18 Texas 76 79 +2.09 -5.09
HOME # 32 Oklahoma 71 69 +9.64 -7.64
HOME # 40 Oklahoma State 76 62 +10.69 +3.31
AWAY # 62 West Virginia 71 58 +7.45 +5.55
HOME # 73 Kansas State 102 83 +13.27 +5.73
AWAY # 5 Baylor 70 80 -2.38 -7.62
AWAY # 38 TCU 64 74 +5.73 -15.73
HOME # 38 TCU 72 68 +10.51 -6.51
HOME # 18 Texas 70 63 +6.87 +0.13
NEUT # 62 West Virginia 87 63 +9.84 +14.16
NEUT # 38 TCU 75 62 +8.12 +4.88
NEUT # 12 Texas Tech 74 65 +1.81 +7.19
NEUT #210 Texas Southern 83 56 +22.01 +4.99
NEUT # 46 Creighton 79 72 +8.71 -1.71
NEUT # 31 Providence +7.24 0.750 0.750
NEUT # 60 Miami-Florida +9.77 0.829 0.622
NEUT # 10 Villanova +1.40 0.554 0.344
NEUT # 6 Duke +1.06 0.541 0.186
Here is Providence's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #228 Fairfield 80 73 +18.13 -11.13
HOME #310 Sacred Heart 92 64 +24.57 +3.43
AWAY # 28 Wisconsin 63 58 -2.67 +7.67
HOME #240 New Hampshire 69 58 +19.35 -8.35
NEUT # 72 Northwestern 77 72 +3.54 +1.46
NEUT # 67 Virginia 40 58 +2.93 -20.93
HOME #131 Saint Peter's 85 71 +11.99 +2.01
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 72 68 -3.04 +7.04
HOME #118 Rhode Island 66 52 +11.25 +2.75
HOME # 87 Vermont 68 58 +7.46 +2.54
HOME #348 Central Connecticut St. 68 53 +28.78 -13.78
AWAY # 17 Connecticut 57 53 -5.21 +9.21
HOME # 34 Seton Hall 70 65 +2.90 +2.10
AWAY # 92 DePaul 70 53 +3.19 +13.81
AWAY # 56 Marquette 56 88 -0.11 -31.89
HOME # 45 St. John's 83 73 +3.82 +6.18
HOME #136 Georgetown 83 75 +12.28 -4.28
HOME #108 Butler 69 62 +9.77 -2.77
AWAY # 37 Xavier-Ohio 65 62 -1.72 +4.72
HOME # 56 Marquette 65 63 +4.67 -2.67
AWAY # 45 St. John's 86 82 -0.96 +4.96
AWAY #136 Georgetown 71 52 +7.50 +11.50
HOME # 92 DePaul 76 73 +7.97 -4.97
HOME # 10 Villanova 84 89 -3.45 -1.55
AWAY #108 Butler 71 70 +4.99 -3.99
HOME # 37 Xavier-Ohio 99 92 +3.06 +3.94
HOME # 46 Creighton 72 51 +3.86 +17.14
AWAY # 10 Villanova 74 76 -8.23 +6.23
NEUT #108 Butler 65 61 +7.38 -3.38
NEUT # 46 Creighton 58 85 +1.47 -28.47
NEUT # 79 South Dakota State 66 57 +4.49 +4.51
NEUT # 75 Richmond 79 51 +4.16 +23.84
NEUT # 4 Kansas -7.24 0.250
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