predictions for Creighton game

Let's focus on one number in particular:  the inconsistency for Creighton is
13.0 points.  They've played over 28 points above expectation, as well as
over 24 points below expectation.  That makes our Round of 32 game more
unpredictable.  They only need to play above expectation by double digits to
beat Kansas, and they've done that eight times in 34 games.  That's equivalent
to a 23.5 percent chance of beating Kansas.

Injuries have probably made that harder to accomplish.  Starting center Ryan
Kalkbrenner went down with a knee injury during the overtime period of the
game against San Diego State, and he is out for the rest of the tournament.
That's on top of the wrist injury to starting guard Ryan Nembhard, who has the
most minutes, most assists, and most steals on the team, but also the most
turnovers.  So it's next man up for the Bluejays.  Alexander has already done
that in place of Nembhard, and performed quite well.  Can Kalkbrenner's
replacement do as well?  Those prognosticators who take into account injuries
will likely give Kansas a slightly bigger edge as a result, though exactly how
much is hard to say.  Rather than playing with a center, Creighton may choose
to play small ball, going with a guard.  Kalkbrenner averaged 13.1 points a game,
second only to Hawkins' 13.8 points a game.  If they go with a forward, KeyShawn
Feazekk averages just 3.0 points a game, though in one-third the playing time of
Kalkbrenner, so adjusted for playing time, Feazell might average 9.3 points a
game, a loss of 4.5 points relative to Kalkbrenner.

Pomeroy has Creighton with the #19 defense, even better than Kansas.  That's
been their strength.  But the Jayhawks have lots of experience playing against
top defenses in the Big 12.

Dunkel seems to have fixed his bizarre ranking for Kansas; the Jayhawks are
now up to #4.  And he's gone from the most pessimistic prediction against
Texas Southern to the most optimistic prediction against Creighton:  15.5 points.
Next most optimistic is the common opponents comparison, which is 13.0 points,
though based on only two opponents and four scores.  Then we have ESPN's BPI,
which has Kansas by 12.4 points.  Vegas and Greenfield agree (as usual) on
11.5 points.  Sagarin, Massey, Pomeroy, and Dolphin are all in the 9 point
range, except for Sagarin Recent Games, where Creighton is ranked #12,
thereby reducing the margin for Kansas to just 2.6 points.

Sagarin has Creighton ranked near TCU, just to make a comparison with a
familiar conference opponent.  The Bluejays have both a positive trend as
well as a positive mental toughness rating, both with some statistical
significance.  Kansas has almost erased its negative trend, but that negative
mental toughness rating will be hard to change, though keep in mind that
neither is statisticaly significant.  Taken at face value, however, the
margin for Kansas would shrink to 6.5 points.

I really hate it when we have an early tip and I'm waiting on one of the
prognosticators to post their game predictions.  In this case, Sagarin is
the one I'm waiting on.  I can manually compute the margins for the four
ratings methods using his numbers from a previous posting, though I
cannot do so for his eigenvector analysis, nor can I guess what his total
points might be, so I'll just go with the average of the two teams and
get this posted to allow me a few hours of sleep.  If there is any major
change, I can post an update just before tip-off.

Win today and Kansas ties Kentucky for most all-time wins.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Cr      KU      Defensive Stats      Cr      KU
Points/Game         69.1    78.7     Opp Points/Game     66.0    67.8
Avg Score Margin    +3.1   +10.9     Opp Effective FG %  44.9    46.6
Assists/Game        13.2    15.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.3    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.4    37.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     27.4    25.1
Effective FG %      50.8    54.2     Blocks/Game          4.3     4.1
Off Rebound %       26.9    32.2     Steals/Game          5.5     6.5
FTA/FGA            0.265   0.322     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.5    16.0
Turnover %          18.1    15.4

My Stats Comparison        KU             Cr 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.67           +0.24    
inconsistency          9.67           13.02    
trend                 -0.02 ± 0.16    +0.31 ± 0.22
mental toughness      -0.20 ± 0.24    +0.33 ± 0.27
average total pts      146.51         135.15    

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely St. John's and Iowa State, with each
team playing its conference foe twice, giving us four scores to compare:

KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
Cre  -6 ISU at home (-10 neutral court)     Cre  -6 ISU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU   +7 Cre neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +23 Cre neutral (+23 neutral court)

KU  +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court)     KU  +20 StJ on road (+24 neutral court)
Cre +23 StJ at home (+19 neutral court)     Cre  +3 StJ on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +5 Cre neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +17 Cre neutral (+17 neutral court)

All four comparisons favor Kansas.  The average is 13.0 points with a scatter of 8.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most points        Ryan Hawkins (forward)
most rebounds      Ryan Hawkins (forward)
most assists       Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most steals        Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most blocks        Ryan Kalkbrenner (center)
most turnovers     Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most fouls         Arthur Kaluma (forward)

Center Ryan Kalkbrenner went down with a knee injury in the overtime period against
San Diego State and is out for the rest of the tournament.  Guard Ryan Nembhard is
out with an injury to his right wrist.  Reserve guard Shereef Mitchell is out with
a foot injury.

                                                          29-6          23-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Creighton
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +8.84                          #  3   #  8    # 39   # 33
Sagarin Predictor       +9.27   75   66       78.8     #  4   #  8    # 49   # 33 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.17                          #  2   #  8    # 35   # 33 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.62   77   61                #  5   #  8    # 12   # 33
Sagarin Eigenvector                                 
Massey                  +8.00   75   67       77       #  3   #  3    # 34   # 40
Pomeroy                 +9.23   78   60                #  5   #  4    # 55   # 37
Greenfield             +11.50   75.5 64                #  5   #  3    # 53   # 39
Dunkel                 +15.50   73   58                #  4           # 26
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.50   76   64                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +8.93   76   67       78.6     #  6   #  4    # 49   # 39
Real Time                                              #  5   #  4    # 53   # 42 
Seven Overtimes        +13.00   77   64       82       #  3   #  3    # 91   # 45
DPPI                    +9.00                 74       #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +12.40                 86.9     #  8   # 11    # 69   # 44
Whitlock                +8.93                          #  3   #  2    # 45   # 37
Colley Matrix           +8.41                          #  2   #  3    # 33   # 26
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 55 
LRMC                                                   #  6   #  2    # 50   # 35
common opponents       +13.00         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 42
Pomeroy offense                                        #  5           #127
Pomeroy defense                                        # 24           # 19
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 65           #185
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.89   75.8 63.4     79.6
scatter                  2.93    1.5  3.2      4.5

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher remaining seed:
                                                                             CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----    -----
NEUT   # 29 Michigan State              87  74    +6.38    +6.62
HOME   #224 Tarleton State              88  62   +25.11    +0.89
HOME   #234 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.69    +3.31
NEUT   # 83 North Texas                 71  59   +12.04    -0.04
NEUT   # 57 Dayton                      73  74    +9.67   -10.67
NEUT   #107 Iona College                96  83   +14.29    -1.29
AWAY   # 47 St. John's                  95  75    +6.23   +13.77
HOME   #162 UTEP                        78  52   +21.66    +4.34
HOME   #114 Missouri                   102  65   +17.79   +19.21
HOME   #125 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +18.72   -10.72
HOME   #115 Nevada                      88  61   +17.83    +9.17
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +17.49    -8.49
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.84    +5.16
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.52    -7.48
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                  62  61   +12.09   -11.09
HOME   # 60 West Virginia               85  59   +12.13   +13.87
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.62    -1.62
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                78  75    +8.34    -5.34
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.30    -1.30
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    62  80    +3.20   -21.20
AWAY   # 58 Iowa State                  70  61    +7.27    +1.73
HOME   #  4 Baylor                      83  59    +2.30   +21.70
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       76  79    +1.92    -4.92
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.44    -7.44
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State              76  62   +10.66    +3.34
AWAY   # 60 West Virginia               71  58    +7.31    +5.69
HOME   # 72 Kansas State               102  83   +13.16    +5.84
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                      70  80    -2.52    -7.48
AWAY   # 46 TCU                         64  74    +6.18   -16.18
HOME   # 46 TCU                         72  68   +11.00    -7.00
HOME   # 19 Texas                       70  63    +6.74    +0.26
NEUT   # 60 West Virginia               87  63    +9.72   +14.28
NEUT   # 46 TCU                         75  62    +8.59    +4.41
NEUT   # 14 Texas Tech                  74  65    +1.89    +7.11
NEUT   #210 Texas Southern              83  56   +21.95    +5.05
NEUT   # 51 Creighton                             +9.15             0.788    0.788
NEUT   # 36 Providence                            +7.64             0.770    0.607
NEUT   # 13 Auburn                                +1.77             0.568    0.345
NEUT   #  2 Arizona                               -1.09             0.458    0.158
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -4.36             0.337    0.053

Here is Creighton's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff             90  77   +29.16   -16.16
HOME   #252 Kennesaw State              51  44   +17.97   -10.97
AWAY   #117 Nebraska                    77  69    +4.12    +3.88
NEUT   #200 Brown                       78  57   +12.18    +8.82
NEUT   # 37 Colorado State              81  95    -1.30   -12.70
NEUT   #128 Southern Illinois           66  64    +7.48    -5.48
HOME   #300 SIU-Edwardsville            70  65   +21.49   -16.49
HOME   #154 North Dakota State          80  55   +12.07   +12.93
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                  58  64    +2.94    -8.94
NEUT   # 48 BYU                         83  71    -0.23   +12.23
HOME   # 79 Arizona State               57  58    +4.92    -5.92
HOME   # 11 Villanova                   79  59    -5.16   +25.16
AWAY   # 49 Marquette                   75  69    -2.62    +8.62
AWAY   # 11 Villanova                   41  75    -9.98   -24.02
AWAY   # 38 Xavier-Ohio                 73  80    -3.63    -3.37
HOME   # 47 St. John's                  87  64    +1.90   +21.10
HOME   # 94 DePaul                      60  47    +6.02    +6.98
AWAY   #110 Butler                      55  72    +3.02   -20.02
HOME   # 38 Xavier-Ohio                 64  74    +1.19   -11.19
AWAY   # 17 Connecticut                 59  55    -7.45   +11.45
AWAY   # 33 Seton Hall                  55  74    -4.33   -14.67
HOME   #110 Butler                      54  52    +7.84    -5.84
AWAY   #134 Georgetown                  80  66    +5.60    +8.40
HOME   #134 Georgetown                  88  77   +10.42    +0.58
AWAY   # 94 DePaul                      71  59    +1.20   +10.80
HOME   # 49 Marquette                   83  82    +2.20    -1.20
AWAY   # 47 St. John's                  81  78    -2.92    +5.92
AWAY   # 36 Providence                  51  72    -3.92   -17.08
HOME   # 17 Connecticut                 64  62    -2.63    +4.63
HOME   # 33 Seton Hall                  60  65    +0.49    -5.49
NEUT   # 49 Marquette                   74  63    -0.21   +11.21
NEUT   # 36 Providence                  85  58    -1.51   +28.51
NEUT   # 11 Villanova                   48  54    -7.57    +1.57
NEUT   # 34 San Diego State             72  69    -1.86    +4.86
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                -9.15             0.212

The update:

My Stats Comparison        KU             Cr 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.51           -0.09    
inconsistency          9.62           13.01    
trend                 -0.01 ± 0.16    +0.30 ± 0.22
mental toughness      -0.19 ± 0.23    +0.33 ± 0.27
average total pts      146.51         135.15    

                                                          29-6          23-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Creighton
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +8.96   74   65       79       #  3   #  8    # 39   # 33
Sagarin Predictor       +9.38   74   65       79.4     #  4   #  8    # 49   # 33 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.34   74   66                #  2   #  8    # 35   # 33 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.68   71   68                #  5   #  8    # 12   # 33
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.88   76   63       86    
Massey                  +8.00   75   67       77       #  3   #  3    # 34   # 40
Pomeroy                 +9.23   78   60                #  5   #  4    # 55   # 37
Greenfield             +11.50   75.5 64                #  5   #  3    # 53   # 39
Dunkel                 +15.50   73   58                #  4           # 26
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.50   76   64                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +8.93   76   67       78.6     #  6   #  4    # 49   # 39
Real Time                                              #  5   #  4    # 53   # 42 
Seven Overtimes        +13.00   77   64       82       #  3   #  3    # 91   # 45
DPPI                    +9.00                 74       #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +12.40                 86.9     #  8   # 11    # 69   # 44
Whitlock                +8.93                          #  3   #  2    # 45   # 37
Colley Matrix           +8.41                          #  2   #  3    # 33   # 26
NCAA NET                                               #  6           # 55 
LRMC                                                   #  6   #  2    # 50   # 35
common opponents       +13.00         
Massey composite                                       #  3           # 42
Pomeroy offense                                        #  5           #127
Pomeroy defense                                        # 24           # 19
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 65           #185
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.10   75.0 64.3     80.4
scatter                  2.90    1.9  2.9      4.4