predictions for Iowa State game

I'm on travel and unable to access my home computer right now, and I don't have the
necessary files on my laptop, so the usual summary isn't possible.  But I can still
access the web.

Sagarin Predictor Ratings:

KU   90.94
ISU  86.93
diff +4.01
hca  -3.25
marg +0.76  Kansas favored, but a one-possession game

Note that the Big 12 home court advantage last season was about 5.22 points, so if you
using that instead of Sagarin's 3.25 points, the extra 1.97 points for Iowa State
gives them a 1.21 point margin.

Massey:

Kansas 81, Iowa State 84, 38 percent probability of winning

Pomeroy:

KU   off 116.9   def  95.1   tem 71.1
ISU  off 119.4   def  98.1   tem 73.9
diff      -2.5        +3.0   avg 72.5

That's Kansas +0.36 points on a neutral court, minus 3.25 points home court
advantage, so Iowa State by 2.89 points, in general agreement with Massey.

Greenfield:

Iowa State 81, Kansas 80

Dunkel:

Iowa State 86, Kansas 82

Vegas according to Dunkel:

Iowa State 83, Kansas 81 (actually 1.5 point margin, rounded)

Real Time:

Iowa State 80, Kansas 77, 43.3 percent chance of Kansas winning
Slightly better than the schedule page, where Real Time has it as
Iowa State 81, Kansas 77.

Dolphin:

Has the margin as 0.00, with identical scores of 81.26 for the two teams.
Overtime, anyone?  That obviously makes the probability of winning exactly 50 percent.

Whitlock:

Kansas rating     52.85
Iowa State rating 49.23
differential      +3.62
after calib.      +2.63   (factor of 0.726)
home court ad.    -3.25
margin            -0.62

So Iowa State favored, but a one-possession game.

LRMC team pages are returning 404 Not Found, so only power rankings are available.

ESPN BPI:

KU   14.2 points versus average
ISU  14.6 points versus average
diff -0.4
hca  -3.3
marg -3.7

Seven Overtimes:

Iowa State 78, Kansas 76, 44 percent probability of Kansas winning

Crotistics:

KU   92.00
ISU  90.13
diff  1.87
hca  -3.50
marg -1.63

DPPI:

Iowa State 77, Kansas 75

There are five common opponents, all in conference, one of which Iowa State has played
twice, giving us six scores to compare:

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
ISU  -4 OU  on road (  0 neutral)     ISU  +5 OU  at home ( +1 neutral)
KU   -5 ISU on road ( -1 neutral)     KU   -6 ISU on road ( -2 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
ISU  +7 TT  at home ( +3 neutral)
KU   +7 ISU on road (+11 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
ISU  -5 BU  at home ( -9 neutral)
KU  +29 ISU on road (+33 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
ISU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral)
KU    0 ISU on road ( +4 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
ISU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral)
KU  -18 ISU on road (-14 neutral)

Only two of the comparions favor Kansas, three favor Iowa State, and one is a wash.
The average, however, favors Kansas by 1.17 points, thanks to that huge win over
Baylor.

Players to watch:

Guard Monte Morris plays the most minutes, dishes the most assists, and steals the most balls.
Forward Georges Niang scores the most points, but also commits the most personal fouls.
Forward Jameel McKay grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most shots.  Forward Abdel Nader
commits the most turnovers.  Guard Nazareth Mitrou-Long is out for the season with a hip injury;
he had been average 31.6 minutes a game, one of their top six, through mid-December.

The average of the various prognostications is -1.8 points, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 76, Iowa State 78.

Personally, I think the Jayhawks looked pretty bad from the end of the TCU game through the
beginning of the Texas game.  The end of the Texas game has me hopeful that they're now out
of this funk.  Tonight will be telling.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS   Pred    GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   # 11   #  6   #  6   # 10
Iowa State     # 19   # 15   # 22   # 19   # 11
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  6  # 10   # 10   # 15   #  2  #  4    # 17    #  4   # 12   #  3   #  9
Iowa State     # 13  #  6   # 15   # 17   # 21  # 11    # 21    # 18   # 18   # 13   # 17
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  8   #  8   #  8   #  8   #  4   #  3   #  8   0.979   16-3
Iowa State     # 14   # 14   # 23   # 11   # 13   #  9   # 16   0.873   15-4
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  7  #  8    #  7  # 33    # 19  # 69    # 13  #       # 10  # 10    #  3  #  4
Iowa State     # 11  # 11    # 18  # 16    # 17  # 20    # 18  #       # 23  # 41    #  9  #  3