predictions for Texas Southern game

Let's focus on one number in particular:  the inconsistency for Kansas this
season has been 9.8 points.  Statistically that means the Jayhawks have played
68 percent of their games within 9.8 points of expectation, where "expectation"
is based on the latest Sagarin Predictor ratings.  That also means the Jayhawks
have played 32 percent of their games by more than 9.8 points of expectation,
with 16 percent above expectation and 16 percent below expectation.  In a six
game tournament, that means the odds favor playing one game by more than 9.8
points below expectation, one game by more than 9.8 points above expectation,
and the other four games within 9.8 points of expectation.  Considering the
likely opponents in subsequent rounds, this first game is the only one in
which the Jayhawks can afford to play more than 9.8 points below expectation
and still advance in the tournament.

Not that I'm recommending the Jayhawks play below expectation on purpose to
get that one stinker of a game out of the way.  The odds do not guarantee that
a team will play one of those stinker games.  Indeed, the likely national
champion will be a team that avoids playing one of those stinker games.  But
those higher seeded teams who bow out prematurely inevitably do so because
they played one of those stinker games.  Yes, to a certain extent, the
tournament is a bit of a crap shoot.  No team plays perfectly consistently.
Indeed, I'm a little concerned that Ochai might develop the same "last game"
jitters that he did for Senior Day, if the Jayhawks make it to the finals.
Fortunately, Remy seems to have recovered at just the right time to help the
Jayhawks make a deep run in this tournament.

Now let's look at this specific game.  The Jayhawks' worst game of the season
came against Kentucky, when they played 21.2 points below expectation.  Kansas
is favored by 21.9 points against Texas Southern, based on the Sagarin Predictor
ratings following Tuesday's First Four games in which Texas Southern participated.
To lose would require a disastrous season-worst performance by the Jayhawks.

Kansas has played four consecutive games above expectation.  Although the trend
in recent games may be positive, depending on just how many games you consider
to be "recent", the season-long trend is still slightly negative, though not
statistically significant.  The mental toughness rating for the Jayhawks is
negative and of marginal statistical significance, but remember, that means
the weaker the opponent, the more above-expectation you play, so against Texas
Southern, the Jayhawks actually pick up 3 to 4 points.

Aside from Dunkel, who I'll discuss separately, the pessimists are the DPPI
and Sagarin's Recent Games, who favor Kansas by just 16 points.  The optimists
are Sagarin's Eigenvector Analysis and Seven Overtimes, who favor Kansas by
27 or more points.

What is with Dunkel?  There were some pretty bizarre predictions during the
regular season, a couple of which were corrected, but the software he's using
seems broken.  His rankings page has Kansas ranked 7 and Texas Southern
ranked 162.  Okay, seems reasonable.  However, in the game prediction, Dunkel
says Kansas is ranked 61, while Texas Southern is ranked 40!  Is that why his
predicted margin is only 4 points in favor of Kansas?  But shouldn't Texas
Southern be favored if they're ranked 21 spots higher?  Similarly, he's got
Baylor winning by just 5, compared to Vegas' 20.5, and his ranking for Baylor
is 62.  Those can't be right.

Unlike the Big 12 Tournament, RealTime has put up predictions for the NCAA
Tournament games.  Except he has Kansas playing Texas A&M Corpus Christi.
See what I mean when I say that RealTime isn't ready for Prime Time?

Anyway, the average is 20.3 points in favor of Kansas, unless you omit
Dunkel, in which case it rises to 21.4 points, a bit less than the Sagarin
Predictor margin.

Texas Southern's ranking is in the high 200s, putting them on a par with
Tarleton and Stony Brook, both of which Kansas scored 88 points against,
and won by at least 26 points.  But it's been a while since Kansas played
those weaker opponents in the non-conference portion of the season.  Then
again, it's been a while since Texas Southern played anybody ranked in the
Top 200 of Division I.  The Tigers opened the season entirely on the road,
making money for their athletic program by playing sacrificial lamb for some
power conference opponents, playing five Top 100 teams, losing to all but
Florida.  Despite their non-conference schedule, Texas Southern's strength
of schedule ranks #348 out of 358 Division I teams, according to Sagarin.
The Southwestern Conference just didn't offer much in the way of decent
competition.  It sort of looks like the win against Florida may have given
them enough confidence to win the Southwestern Conference.  But they played
31 points above expectation in that game, which has an incredibly low
probability of occurring even once in a season, let alone a second time.
But hey, it's called March Madness for a reason.  Underestimate an opponent,
and you go home.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TS      KU      Defensive Stats      TS      KU
Points/Game         69.2    78.6     Opp Points/Game     65.5    68.1
Avg Score Margin    +3.7   +10.4     Opp Effective FG %  44.9    46.9
Assists/Game        10.7    15.4     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.6     9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.5    37.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.2    25.1
Effective FG %      48.7    54.1     Blocks/Game          5.0     4.1
Off Rebound %       32.9    32.2     Steals/Game          5.6     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.327   0.328     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.8    15.9
Turnover %          18.2    15.3

My Stats Comparison        KU             TS 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.54           +1.48    
inconsistency          9.79           11.16    
trend                 -0.05 ± 0.17    -0.03 ± 0.23
mental toughness      -0.19 ± 0.25    +0.02 ± 0.20
average total pts      146.74         134.68    

Common Opponents
================
There was supposed to be a common opponent, namely TCU, but that game got
canceled as a result of COVID protocol.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kolby Granger (guard)
most points        John Walker III (forward)
most rebounds      Brison Gresham (forward)
most assists       Jordan Gilliam (guard)
most steals        PJ Henry (guard)
most blocks        Kolby Granger (guard)
most turnovers     Joirdon Karl Nicholas (forward)
most fouls         Joirdon Karl Nicholas (forward)

                                                          28-6           19-12
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Texas South.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +21.66   80   58       95       #  3   #  4    #207   #348
Sagarin Predictor      +21.94   80   58       98.2     #  5   #  4    #210   #348 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +21.78   80   58                #  2   #  4    #206   #348 
Sagarin Recent Games   +16.18   77   61                #  6   #  4    #131   #348
Sagarin Eigenvector    +27.75   83   55       97    
Massey                 +18.00   80   62       95       #  3   #  3    #191   #242
Pomeroy                +18.37   78   60                #  6   #  3    #183   #315
Greenfield             +21.50   83   62                #  5   #  3    #188   #263
Dunkel                  +4.00   77   73                #  7           #162
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +22.00   83.5 61.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +20.54   83   62       96.4     #  6   #  4    #188   #274
Real Time                                              #  5   #  3    #189   #350 
Seven Overtimes        +27.00   84   57       91       #  3   #  3    #274   #346
DPPI                   +16.00   79   63       90.1     #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +22.60                 96.8     #  9   # 11    #174   #243
Whitlock               +21.31                          #  3   #  2    #197   #304
Colley Matrix          +24.11                          #  2   #  3    #201   #326
NCAA NET                                               #  6           #197 
LRMC                                                   #  6   #  2    #203   #327
common opponents                      
Massey composite                                       #  3           #202
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           #269
Pomeroy defense                                        # 28           #100
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 69           #118
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +20.30   80.6 60.8     94.9
scatter                  5.43    2.5  4.4      2.9

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher remaining seed:
                                                                             CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----    -----
NEUT   # 29 Michigan State              87  74    +6.38    +6.62
HOME   #224 Tarleton State              88  62   +25.11    +0.89
HOME   #234 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.69    +3.31
NEUT   # 83 North Texas                 71  59   +12.04    -0.04
NEUT   # 57 Dayton                      73  74    +9.67   -10.67
NEUT   #107 Iona College                96  83   +14.29    -1.29
AWAY   # 47 St. John's                  95  75    +6.23   +13.77
HOME   #162 UTEP                        78  52   +21.66    +4.34
HOME   #114 Missouri                   102  65   +17.79   +19.21
HOME   #125 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +18.72   -10.72
HOME   #115 Nevada                      88  61   +17.83    +9.17
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +17.49    -8.49
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.84    +5.16
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.52    -7.48
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                  62  61   +12.09   -11.09
HOME   # 60 West Virginia               85  59   +12.13   +13.87
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.62    -1.62
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                78  75    +8.34    -5.34
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.30    -1.30
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    62  80    +3.20   -21.20
AWAY   # 58 Iowa State                  70  61    +7.27    +1.73
HOME   #  4 Baylor                      83  59    +2.30   +21.70
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       76  79    +1.92    -4.92
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.44    -7.44
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State              76  62   +10.66    +3.34
AWAY   # 60 West Virginia               71  58    +7.31    +5.69
HOME   # 72 Kansas State               102  83   +13.16    +5.84
AWAY   #  4 Baylor                      70  80    -2.52    -7.48
AWAY   # 46 TCU                         64  74    +6.18   -16.18
HOME   # 46 TCU                         72  68   +11.00    -7.00
HOME   # 19 Texas                       70  63    +6.74    +0.26
NEUT   # 60 West Virginia               87  63    +9.72   +14.28
NEUT   # 46 TCU                         75  62    +8.59    +4.41
NEUT   # 14 Texas Tech                  74  65    +1.89    +7.11
NEUT   #210 Texas Southern                       +21.95             0.982    0.982
NEUT   # 34 San Diego State                       +7.29             0.758    0.744
NEUT   # 36 Providence                            +7.64             0.768    0.572
NEUT   # 13 Auburn                                +1.77             0.567    0.324
NEUT   #  2 Arizona                               -1.09             0.458    0.148
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -4.36             0.338    0.050

Here is Texas Southern's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 41 Oregon                      66  83   -16.15    -0.85
AWAY   # 23 Saint Mary's-Cal.           58  67   -18.22    +9.22
AWAY   #108 Washington                  65  72    -9.83    +2.83
AWAY   #265 Air Force                   57  61    +1.21    -5.21
AWAY   #116 NC State                    57  65    -8.74    +0.74
AWAY   # 48 BYU                         64  81   -15.44    -1.56
AWAY   # 98 Louisiana Tech              60  87   -10.68   -16.32
AWAY   # 40 Florida                     69  54   -16.40   +31.40
AWAY   #296 UTRGV                       70  60    +3.70    +6.30
AWAY   #244 Southern U.                 50  63    -0.12   -12.88
AWAY   #319 Grambling State             67  51    +5.36   +10.64
HOME   #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff             90  71   +16.36    +2.64
HOME   #358 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      95  58   +20.22   +16.78
AWAY   #285 Alcorn State                72  73    +2.89    -3.89
AWAY   #294 Jackson State               58  61    +3.31    -6.31
HOME   #338 Alabama A&M                 78  44   +12.25   +21.75
HOME   #325 Alabama State               73  66   +10.71    -3.71
AWAY   #292 Prairie View A&M            75  74    +3.26    -2.26
AWAY   #315 Florida A&M                 67  55    +5.17    +6.83
AWAY   #342 Bethune-Cookman             66  63    +8.08    -5.08
HOME   #319 Grambling State             68  65   +10.18    -7.18
HOME   #244 Southern U.                 58  70    +4.70   -16.70
AWAY   #358 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      79  59   +15.40    +4.60
AWAY   #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff             70  68   +11.54    -9.54
HOME   #294 Jackson State               81  66    +8.13    +6.87
HOME   #285 Alcorn State                72  75    +7.71   -10.71
HOME   #292 Prairie View A&M            78  77    +8.08    -7.08
NEUT   #294 Jackson State               54  50    +5.72    -1.72
NEUT   #319 Grambling State             73  54    +7.77   +11.23
NEUT   #285 Alcorn State                87  62    +5.30   +19.70
NEUT   #268 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     76  67    +3.74    +5.26
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                               -21.95             0.018