predictions for Texas Tech game

So, Kansas won the rubber match with TCU.  Will they win the rubber match with
Texas Tech?  The rubber match with Baylor could still happen in the Big Dance.

Considering how tough the Big 12 has been this season, this game has all the
makings of a national championship.  And as you might expect for such a game,
the predictions are for a tight game.  Dunkel is the most pessimistic, picking
Texas Tech by 2.5 points, while the most optimistic is Seven Overtimes, who
has Kansas by 6.0 points.  Everybody else is picking the Jayhawks, though the
trend analysis does favor the Red Raiders by 1.2 points, given their positive
trend and mental toughness ratings.  The average is 2.1 points in favor of
Kansas, but with a scatter of 2.2 points.  That's basically a one-possession
game, and it could come down to the last shot.  Or like we saw in Lawrence,
overtime.  Perhaps double overtime.

Both teams had dominating performances in their quarterfinal games.
Kansas played about 4.5 points above expectation in its semifinal game,
while Texas Tech played about 4.5 points below expectation in its
semifinal game, so give Kansas the slight edge in tournament performance
to date.

Of course, all the predictions treat this game as being on a neutral court,
but expect the crowd to be pro-Kansas.  How much is that worth?  ESPN's
BPI has Kansas by 4.8 points, among the most favorable, so perhaps they're
giving the Jayhawks a bit of a home court advantage.

You've heard of the irresistible force going up against the immovable
object?  Well, Pomeroy has this game featuring Division I's #6 offense
going up against the #1 defense.  The Jayhawk defense may be a bit
under-rated, based on what we saw midway through the first half against
TCU, when consecutive shot clock violations occurred.  Outstanding
defense, including from Remy Martin.  It's just what this team needs to
make a deep run in the tournament.  With Baylor and Auburn having both
lost already, Kansas looks pretty solid for a 1 seed in the Big Dance,
regardless of the outcome of today's game, as long as it isn't totally
embarrassing.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         71.9    78.7     Opp Points/Game     59.9    68.2
Avg Score Margin   +12.0   +10.5     Opp Effective FG %  45.4    46.9
Assists/Game        13.5    15.5     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.1    10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.5    37.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.4    25.0
Effective FG %      52.5    54.3     Blocks/Game          3.5     4.2
Off Rebound %       32.1    32.5     Steals/Game          8.2     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.366   0.320     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.1    15.9
Turnover %          17.6    15.3

My Stats Comparison        KU             TTU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.56           +1.05    
inconsistency          9.85           10.56    
trend                 -0.09 ± 0.18    +0.18 ± 0.19
mental toughness      -0.24 ± 0.25    +0.03 ± 0.16
average total pts      146.97         131.82    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference.  For the regular season games,
I'll only use the home-home and road-road permutations.  For the tournament games,
I'll use the neutral court game against both the home and road contests for the other
team.  We also have the two head-to-head games, giving us twenty-six scores to compare:

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
TTU  -4 ISU on road (  0 neutral court)     TTU +12 ISU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +13 TTU neutral (+13 neutral court)     KU  -11 TTU neutral (-11 neutral court)

KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)
TTU  +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     TTU +10 BU  at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU  -13 TTU neutral (-13 neutral court)     KU  +14 TTU neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
TTU +21 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)     TTU  -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -7 TTU neutral ( -7 neutral court)     KU  +12 TTU neutral (+12 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
TTU -11 KSU on road ( -7 neutral court)     TTU  +5 KSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +14 TTU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU  +14 TTU neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)     KU  +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)
TTU +13 WVU at home ( +9 neutral court)     TTU  +7 WVU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  +13 TTU neutral (+13 neutral court)     KU   +6 TTU neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +7 UT  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
TTU +13 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)     TTU  +6 UT  on road (+10 neutral court)
KU   -6 TTU neutral ( -6 neutral court)     KU   -9 TTU neutral ( -9 neutral court)

KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)
TTU -15 OU  on road (-11 neutral court)     TTU +16 OU  at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  +18 TTU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  -14 TTU neutral (-14 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)
TTU +13 TCU at home ( +9 neutral court)     TTU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -9 TTU neutral ( -9 neutral court)     KU   -7 TTU neutral ( -7 neutral court)

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   -4 TTU neutral ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -1 TTU neutral ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
TTU +31 ISU neutral (+31 neutral court)     TTU +31 ISU neutral (+31 neutral court)
KU  -18 TTU neutral (-18 neutral court)     KU  -34 TTU neutral (-34 neutral court)

KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)     KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)
TTU +13 WVU at home ( +9 neutral court)     TTU  +7 WVU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  +15 TTU neutral (+15 neutral court)     KU  +13 TTU neutral (+13 neutral court)

KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)
TTU  +1 OU  neutral ( +1 neutral court)     TTU  +1 OU  neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +6 TTU neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -3 TTU neutral ( -3 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU neutral (+13 neutral court)     KU  +13 TCU neutral (+13 neutral court)
TTU +13 TCU at home ( +9 neutral court)     TTU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +4 TTU neutral ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +12 TTU neutral (+12 neutral court)

Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, and thirteen favor Texas Tech.
The average is 0.69 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 13.11 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kevin McCullar (guard)
most points        Bryson Williams (forward)
most rebounds      Kevin McCullar (guard)
most assists       Kevin McCullar (guard)
most steals        Davion Warren (guard)
most blocks        Marcus Santos-Silva (forward)
most turnovers     Terrence Shannon Jr. (guard)
most fouls         Kevin McCullar (guard)

Reserve guard Ethan Duncan has been out with an unspecified injury with no
timetable for return.

                                                          27-6           25-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +1.73   70   68       57       #  4   #  8    # 13   # 30
Sagarin Predictor       +1.65   70   68       56.4     #  5   #  8    # 13   # 30 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.28   70   68                #  2   #  8    # 13   # 30 
Sagarin Recent Games    +0.38   69   69                #  8   #  8    # 10   # 30 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.35   71   67       66    
Massey                  +3.00   72   69       60       #  5   #  4    # 10   # 47
Pomeroy                 +0.14   67   67                #  6   #  4    #  8   # 20
Greenfield              +1.00   68   67                #  6   #  6    # 14   #  7
Dunkel                  -2.50   58   71                #  9           # 12
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.00   68   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +0.99   70   69       53.5     #  7   #  3    #  5   #  4
Real Time                                              #  5   #  4    # 24   # 62 
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   73   67       79       #  3   #  2    # 25   # 54
DPPI                                                   #  8   #  2    #      #    
ESPN BPI                +4.80                 67.6     # 11   # 11    # 13   # 18
Whitlock                +1.37                          #  4   #  2    #  8   # 36
Colley Matrix           +5.82                          #  3   #  3    # 22   # 52
NCAA NET                                               #  7           #  9 
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2    #  7   # 65
common opponents        +0.69         
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 13
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           # 59
Pomeroy defense                                        # 30           #  1
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 72           #218
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.11   68.8 68.0     62.8
scatter                  2.24    3.8  1.4      8.8

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 27 Michigan State              87  74    +6.20    +6.80
HOME   #224 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.90    +1.10
HOME   #234 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.57    +3.43
NEUT   # 82 North Texas                 71  59   +11.60    +0.40
NEUT   # 55 Dayton                      73  74    +9.26   -10.26
NEUT   #107 Iona College                96  83   +14.06    -1.06
AWAY   # 46 St. John's                  95  75    +5.91   +14.09
HOME   #164 UTEP                        78  52   +21.44    +4.56
HOME   #114 Missouri                   102  65   +17.54   +19.46
HOME   #125 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +18.46   -10.46
HOME   #115 Nevada                      88  61   +17.58    +9.42
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +17.29    -8.29
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.62    +5.38
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.79    -7.21
HOME   # 59 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.88   -10.88
HOME   # 61 West Virginia               85  59   +11.98   +14.02
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.55    -1.55
AWAY   # 71 Kansas State                78  75    +8.11    -5.11
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.09    -1.09
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    62  80    +2.76   -20.76
AWAY   # 59 Iowa State                  70  61    +7.00    +2.00
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  59    +2.15   +21.85
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       76  79    +1.66    -4.66
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.43    -7.43
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State              76  62   +10.50    +3.50
AWAY   # 61 West Virginia               71  58    +7.10    +5.90
HOME   # 71 Kansas State               102  83   +12.99    +6.01
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      70  80    -2.73    -7.27
AWAY   # 47 TCU                         64  74    +5.99   -15.99
HOME   # 47 TCU                         72  68   +10.87    -6.87
HOME   # 19 Texas                       70  63    +6.54    +0.46
NEUT   # 61 West Virginia               87  63    +9.54   +14.46
NEUT   # 47 TCU                         75  62    +8.43    +4.57
NEUT   # 13 Texas Tech                            +1.65             0.564

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #265 North Florida(UNF)          89  74   +26.09   -11.09
HOME   #320 Grambling State             88  62   +30.32    -4.32
HOME   #293 Prairie View A&M            84  49   +28.20    +6.80
NEUT   #353 Incarnate Word              84  62   +32.50   -10.50
HOME   #345 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           96  40   +33.39   +22.61
HOME   #340 Lamar                       89  57   +32.67    -0.67
AWAY   # 37 Providence                  68  72    +3.39    -7.39
NEUT   # 10 Tennessee                   57  52    -0.43    +5.43
HOME   #195 Arkansas State              75  62   +21.59    -8.59
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                     55  69    -6.30    -7.70
HOME   #225 Eastern Washington          78  46   +23.35    +8.65
HOME   #323 Alabama State               75  53   +30.79    -8.79
AWAY   # 59 Iowa State                  47  51    +5.35    -9.35
HOME   #  5 Kansas                      75  67    +0.79    +7.21
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      65  62    -4.38    +7.38
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State              78  57    +8.85   +12.15
AWAY   # 71 Kansas State                51  62    +6.46   -17.46
HOME   # 59 Iowa State                  72  60   +10.23    +1.77
HOME   # 61 West Virginia               78  65   +10.33    +2.67
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                      91  94    -4.09    +1.09
HOME   # 40 Mississippi State           76  50    +8.59   +17.41
HOME   # 19 Texas                       77  64    +4.89    +8.11
AWAY   # 61 West Virginia               60  53    +5.45    +1.55
AWAY   # 34 Oklahoma                    55  70    +2.90   -17.90
HOME   # 47 TCU                         82  69    +9.22    +3.78
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  73    +0.50    +9.50
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       61  55    +0.01    +5.99
HOME   # 34 Oklahoma                    66  42    +7.78   +16.22
AWAY   # 47 TCU                         66  69    +4.34    -7.34
HOME   # 71 Kansas State                73  68   +11.34    -6.34
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State              51  52    +3.97    -4.97
NEUT   # 59 Iowa State                  72  41    +7.79   +23.21
NEUT   # 34 Oklahoma                    56  55    +5.34    -4.34
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                -1.65             0.436