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predictions for TCU game

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asteroid
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2 years 8 months ago #28644 by asteroid

TCU AGAIN???

Deja vu.  Didn't we just finish playing TCU twice last week?

Predicted margins range from 5.2 points (Sagarin Recent Games) to 14.0 points
(Seven Overtimes).  The average is 8.6 points, with a scatter of 3.2 points.

Kansas still has a negative trend, though not statistically significant, despite
the strong above-expectation performance against West Virginia.  TCU has a
significant positive trend, as well as a positive mental toughness rating.
Taken at face value, the Sagarin Predictor margin of 8.3 points shrinks to just
5.2 points.

Kansas has played six of thirty-two games below expectation by enough to lose,
whereas TCU has played six of thirty-one games above expectation by enough to
win.  Those correspond to a 19 percent chance of Kansas losing, very consistent
with what the Sagarin Predictor ratings would predict.

I don't yet have the DPPI prediction, but I'd rather get this posted now than
wait for whenever it might or might not show up.  RealTime is still AWOL.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TCU     KU      Defensive Stats      TCU     KU
Points/Game         68.3    78.8     Opp Points/Game     64.7    68.4
Avg Score Margin    +3.6   +10.4     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    46.8
Assists/Game        13.6    15.5     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.5    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.8    37.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.3    25.2
Effective FG %      48.8    54.2     Blocks/Game          4.2     4.2
Off Rebound %       36.3    33.0     Steals/Game          6.4     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.309   0.324     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.4    15.8
Turnover %          18.0    15.4

My Stats Comparison        KU             TCU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.46           +0.42    
inconsistency          9.93            9.59    
trend                 -0.12 ± 0.19    +0.29 ± 0.19
mental toughness      -0.25 ± 0.26    +0.11 ± 0.17
average total pts      147.28         132.97    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference.  For the regular season games,
I'll only use the home-home and road-road permutations.  For the tournament games,
I'll use the neutral court game against both the home and road contents for the other
team.  We also have the two head-to-head games, giving us twenty-two scores to compare:

KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)     KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
TCU -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral court)     TCU -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +36 TCU neutral (+36 neutral court)     KU    0 TCU neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
TCU  +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     TCU -12 KSU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU    0 TCU neutral (  0 neutral court)     KU  +31 TCU neutral (+31 neutral court)

KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
TCU  +1 OU  at home ( -3 neutral court)     TCU  +9 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   +1 TCU neutral ( +1 neutral court)     KU   -6 TCU neutral ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
TCU  -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court)     TCU  +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +8 TCU neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +10 TCU neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
TCU +15 ISU on road (+19 neutral court)     TCU  -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU   -6 TCU neutral ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU neutral ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +7 UT  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
TCU  -9 UT  on road ( -5 neutral court)     TCU -23 UT  at home (-27 neutral court)
KU   +8 TCU neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +28 TCU neutral (+28 neutral court)

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
TCU -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)     TCU  +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +5 TCU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU    0 TCU neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)     KU  +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)
TCU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)     TCU  -6 WVU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +16 TCU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU  +19 TCU neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   -6 TCU neutral ( -6 neutral court)     KU    0 TCU neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU   +7 UT  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
TCU  +5 UT  neutral ( +5 neutral court)     TCU  +5 UT  neutral ( +5 neutral court)
KU   -2 TCU neutral ( -2 neutral court)     KU   -4 TCU neutral ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)     KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)
TCU +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)     TCU  -6 WVU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +18 TCU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  +26 TCU neutral (+26 neutral court)

Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, five favor TCU, and four are a wash.
The average is 8.45 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 12.88 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Mike Miles (guard)
most points        Mike Miles (guard)
most rebounds      Emanuel Miller (forward)
most assists       Damion Baugh (guard)
most steals        Damion Baugh (guard)
most blocks        Emanuel Miller (forward)
most turnovers     Damion Baugh (guard)
most fouls         Micah Peavy (guard)

Reserve guard Maxwell Evans has been out for an extended amount of time; he is
eighth on the team in minutes played per game.  Miles twisted his ankle in
yesterday's game; unclear how severe that injury is.

                                                          26-6           20-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           TCU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +8.14   73   65       77       #  5   #  7    # 41   # 23
Sagarin Predictor       +8.27   73   65       80.2     #  5   #  7    # 44   # 23 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.45   73   65                #  3   #  7    # 40   # 23 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.22   71   66                # 13   #  7    # 40   # 23 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.55   75   62       86    
Massey                  +9.00   75   66       80       #  6   #  3    # 35   # 21
Pomeroy                 +6.66   72   66                #  9   #  3    # 36   # 13
Greenfield              +8.00   73.5 65.5              #  7   #  5    # 46   # 25
Dunkel                 +11.50   72   61                #  9           # 63
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.00   73.5 65.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +7.73   75   67       75.3     #  7   #  3    # 27   # 14
Real Time                                              #  5   #  3    # 70   # 49 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   77   63       84       #  3   #  1    #108   # 27
DPPI                                                   #  8   #  2    #      #    
ESPN BPI               +12.60                 87.5     # 12   #  8    # 43   # 12
Whitlock                +8.14                          #  6   #  2    # 42   # 20
Colley Matrix           +9.73                          #  3   #  3    # 54   # 39
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 43 
LRMC                                                   # 10   #  2    # 48   # 33
common opponents        +8.45         
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 74
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           # 79
Pomeroy defense                                        # 30           # 21
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 70           #243
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.63   73.8 64.9     81.1
scatter                  3.15    1.7  1.8      4.3

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher rated of potential future opponents:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 27 Michigan State              87  74    +6.29    +6.71
HOME   #223 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.85    +1.15
HOME   #234 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.57    +3.43
NEUT   # 80 North Texas                 71  59   +11.35    +0.65
NEUT   # 54 Dayton                      73  74    +9.09   -10.09
NEUT   #107 Iona College                96  83   +14.02    -1.02
AWAY   # 46 St. John's                  95  75    +6.06   +13.94
HOME   #162 UTEP                        78  52   +21.42    +4.58
HOME   #114 Missouri                   102  65   +17.53   +19.47
HOME   #121 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +18.43   -10.43
HOME   #115 Nevada                      88  61   +17.73    +9.27
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +17.34    -8.34
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.56    +5.44
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.95    -7.05
HOME   # 57 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.90   -10.90
HOME   # 58 West Virginia               85  59   +11.98   +14.02
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.69    -1.69
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                78  75    +8.13    -5.13
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +3.93    -0.93
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    62  80    +2.47   -20.47
AWAY   # 57 Iowa State                  70  61    +7.02    +1.98
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  59    +2.13   +21.87
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       76  79    +1.69    -4.69
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.57    -7.57
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State              76  62   +10.44    +3.56
AWAY   # 58 West Virginia               71  58    +7.10    +5.90
HOME   # 72 Kansas State               102  83   +13.01    +5.99
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      70  80    -2.75    -7.25
AWAY   # 44 TCU                         64  74    +5.83   -15.83
HOME   # 44 TCU                         72  68   +10.71    -6.71
HOME   # 19 Texas                       70  63    +6.57    +0.43
NEUT   # 58 West Virginia               87  63    +9.54   +14.46
NEUT   # 44 TCU                                   +8.27             0.802
NEUT   # 13 Texas Tech                            +1.49             0.559

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #318 McNeese State               77  61   +23.54    -7.54
HOME   #331 Southern Miss               83  51   +24.64    +7.36
HOME   #207 Nicholls State              63  50   +15.62    -2.62
NEUT   # 81 Santa Clara                 66  85    +3.13   -22.13
NEUT   #239 Pepperdine                  73  64   +15.40    -6.40
HOME   #284 Austin Peay                 68  51   +20.98    -3.98
HOME   #148 Oral Roberts                71  63   +12.37    -4.37
HOME   #102 Utah                        76  62    +7.91    +6.09
NEUT   # 59 Texas A&M                   68  64    +1.31    +2.69
AWAY   #134 Georgetown                  80  73    +6.29    +0.71
HOME   #317 Grambling State             90  55   +23.50   +11.50
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      64  76    -6.14    -5.86
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                60  57    -0.14    +3.14
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                    59  58    +1.30    -0.30
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State              56  57    -2.71    +1.71
AWAY   # 57 Iowa State                  59  44    -1.25   +16.25
HOME   # 19 Texas                       50  73    -1.70   -21.30
HOME   # 16 LSU                         77  68    -2.69   +11.69
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    72  63    -3.58   +12.58
HOME   # 72 Kansas State                63  75    +4.74   -16.74
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State              77  73    +2.17    +1.83
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  69  82    -9.22    -3.78
HOME   # 57 Iowa State                  51  54    +3.63    -6.63
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      62  72   -11.02    +1.02
HOME   # 58 West Virginia               77  67    +3.71    +6.29
AWAY   # 19 Texas                       66  75    -6.58    -2.42
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  69  66    -4.34    +7.34
HOME   #  5 Kansas                      74  64    -5.83   +15.83
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                      68  72   -10.71    +6.71
AWAY   # 58 West Virginia               64  70    -1.17    -4.83
NEUT   # 19 Texas                       65  60    -4.14    +9.14
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                -8.27             0.198

The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, wchawk, jayhawk969, Socalhawk, DocBlues, hoshi, KMT and this user have 2 others thankyou

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NotOstertag
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2 years 8 months ago #28645 by NotOstertag

As always, thank you Asteroid for putting it all together.

To me this is pretty simple: TCU's 8-10 conference record is meaningless at this point.

They beat us pretty solidly at their place and we won a close one in Lawrence. ESPN's predictor says we have an 87.5% chance of winning. Those same algorithms gave Baylor an 80.9% chance to beat OU last night, and we saw how that worked out.

For this game in particular, throw the stat sheet out the window. TCU has proven that they can play. This one will take AT LEAST a full 40 minute effort (maybe more).

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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hoshi
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2 years 8 months ago #28646 by hoshi

We know them, they know us. It will be a battle.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. Albert Einstein

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DocBlues
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2 years 8 months ago #28647 by DocBlues

In addition, according to LKF_HAWK. TCU has "better athletes" than we do Maybe we should just wave the white flag now?

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LKF_HAWK
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2 years 8 months ago #28648 by LKF_HAWK

DocBlues - not just according to me. HCBS said it before both games that TCU is long, athletic and a physical team. They are a hard matchup at the 2,3,4 spots. My point was TCU having being more athletic than KU in MBB is unheard of and speaks to something about KU’s recent recruiting.

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

2 years 8 months ago #28650 by HawkErrant

LKF_HAWK wrote: DocBlues - not just according to me. HCBS said it before both games that TCU is long, athletic and a physical team. They are a hard matchup at the 2,3,4 spots. My point was TCU having being more athletic than KU in MBB is unheard of and speaks to something about KU’s recent recruiting.

Yep. It shows the negative impact of the far too drawn out NCAA "investigation".

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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DocBlues
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2 years 8 months ago #28651 by DocBlues

Saying that TCU is "is long, athletic and a physical team" is NOT the same as saying TCU has 'better athletes" than KU. Take a look at the Big 12's individual and teams stats. There are hardly any categories where TCU players or team has better numbers than KU players or team. KU has a better conference record. Oh, and the Big 12 POY plays for KU. The NCAA investigation has undoubtedly hurt KU's recruiting and TCU beat KU in Ft. Worth. But, I don't see any evidence that TCU's players are 'better athletes,'

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LKF_HAWK
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2 years 8 months ago - 2 years 8 months ago #28652 by LKF_HAWK

Ok, DocBlues then TCU seemed to be the more athletic team in both games, and I would think HCBS would agree with that assessment. Also I never said KU had no chance in either game.

Last Edit: 2 years 8 months ago by LKF_HAWK.

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DocBlues
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2 years 8 months ago #28653 by DocBlues

OK then!!!! "...seemed to be more athletic.." sounds a LOT like "played better,' which is what I think is the most accurate assessment.

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hairyhawk
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2 years 8 months ago #28654 by hairyhawk

My thoughts are 2 main concerns. Mr. McCormack's foot and Mr Agbaji's outside shot. I think if both of those things are good KU will be very tough to beat. Another thing that I think can make a difference is Mr. Clemence's outside shooting. Last time we played TCU he got two uncontested 3 point shots and missed them both Then he did not see the floor in the 2nd half. If he makes those shots, and we all know he can, it really changes the game. Mr. Lampkin is pretty strong in the post but he is not a particularly strong perimeter defender. The Hawks are going to need to work hard on the glass especially on the defensive end. Once they get some defensive rebounds hopefully they punish TCU for sending so many guys to the offensive glass.

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Illhawk
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2 years 8 months ago #28655 by Illhawk

Admittedly this is a tough year for West Virginia. but I thought last night was the best 40 minute effort all year. There have been better 10-20 minute stretches but last night seemed steady, start to finish.

I am curious to see if that's repeatable against a team that's more physical.

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