predictions for West Virginia game

Only RealTime hasn't put up any predictions for the post-season games.  The rest
favor Kansas, by anywhere from 1.5 points (Dunkel) to 15.3 points (ESPN's BPI).
The average is 10.0 points, with a scatter of 3.1 points.

Kansas has played three games below expectation by more than 10 points (Iowa
State, Kentucky, TCU) out of 31 games, for a 9.7 percent chance of losing.
West Virginia is the most consistent team in the conference and has played
above expectation by more than 10 points only twice (Youngstown State and Iowa
State) out of 32 games, for a 6.25 percent chance of winning.  Those average to
an 8.0 percent change of Kansas losing, somewhat more favorable than the
Sagarin Predictor ratings would suggest.

Both teams have negative trends and mental toughness ratings, but of only
marginal statistical significance.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas
shrinks to 8.8 points.

All this assumes a true neutral court, but one would think that Kansas would
have a partial home court advantage.

Dunkel is expecting 152 total points, while Vegas has it at 148.  Interesting,
given that the average of the two teams' total point averages is just 142.
Sagarin has it as 141.52 points, so he seems to be driven more by actual
performance, whereas the others might be making an adjustment based on the
#7 offense going up against the #58 defense, according to Pomeroy.  The flip
side of that is the #83 offense going up against the #32 defense.

Note that West Virginia is on a two-game winning streak, winning both by
6 points.  Then again, they're playing on consecutive days, while Kansas
is coming in much fresher, though last week was a bit of a grind.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      WVU     KU      Defensive Stats      WVU     KU
Points/Game         68.5    78.6     Opp Points/Game     68.5    68.6
Avg Score Margin     0.0   +10.0     Opp Effective FG %  50.3    47.0
Assists/Game        10.5    15.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.5    10.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   32.4    37.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     20.4    24.9
Effective FG %      46.8    54.1     Blocks/Game          4.5     4.1
Off Rebound %       28.8    32.6     Steals/Game          7.7     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.361   0.326     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.6    15.7
Turnover %          15.7    15.3

My Stats Comparison        KU             WVU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.30           -1.04    
inconsistency          9.81            7.97    
trend                 -0.23 ± 0.20    -0.05 ± 0.15
mental toughness      -0.25 ± 0.26    -0.17 ± 0.16
average total pts      147.19         137.03    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, all of which both teams have
played twice, for which I'll only use the home-home and road-road permutations, and
one of which West Virginia has played a third time, plus the two head-to-head
contests, giving us twenty scores to compare:

KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     KU   +7 UT  at home ( +3 neutral court)
WVU -15 UT  on road (-11 neutral court)     WVU  -1 UT  at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)     KU   +8 WVU neutral ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU  +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     WVU  -5 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +16 WVU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU   +8 WVU neutral ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)
WVU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court)     WVU -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU   +4 WVU neutral ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +24 WVU neutral (+24 neutral court)

KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)     KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
WVY  -9 BU  at home (-13 neutral court)     WVU  -4 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +33 WVU neutral (+33 neutral court)     KU   -6 WVU neutral ( -6 neutral court)

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
WVU -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)     WVU  -7 TTU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU   +5 WVU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +10 WVU neutral (+10 neutral court)

KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU -10 OU  at home (-14 neutral court)     WVU -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)     KU  +16 WVU neutral (+16 neutral court)

KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)     KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)
WVU +16 ISU at home (+12 neutral court)     WVU  -3 ISU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -15 WVU neutral (-15 neutral court)     KU  +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)

KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
WVU -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)     WVU  +6 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU    0 WVU neutral (  0 neutral court)     KU   -2 WVU neutral ( -2 neutral court)

KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
WVU  +6 KSU neutral ( +6 neutral court)     WVU  +6 KSU neutral ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +9 WVU neutral ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +1 WVU neutral ( +1 neutral court)

KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)     KU  +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)
KU  +22 WVU neutral (+22 neutral court)     KU  +17 WVU neutral (+17 neutral court)

Sixteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, three favor West Virginia, and one is a wash.
The average is 9.3 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 10.9 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Taz Sherman (guard)
most points        Taz Sherman (guard)
most rebounds      Gabe Osabuohien (forward)
most assists       Taz Sherman (guard)
most steals        Kedrian Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Dimon Carrigan (forward)
most turnovers     Taz Sherman (guard)
most fouls         Gabe Osabuohien (forward)

                                                          25-6           16-16
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.07   75   66       79       #  5   #  6    # 58   # 13
Sagarin Predictor       +9.01   75   66       84.3     #  6   #  6    # 56   # 13 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +9.54   76   66                #  4   #  6    # 58   # 13 
Sagarin Recent Games    +8.46   75   67                # 14   #  6    # 82   # 13 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.72   78   64       87    
Massey                 +10.00   78   68       82       #  7   #  3    # 59   #  9
Pomeroy                 +9.04   77   68                #  9   #  2    # 68   #  4
Greenfield              +9.00   78   69                # 10   #  5    # 55   # 23
Dunkel                  +1.50   77   75                #  9           # 85
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.00   78.5 69.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +8.71   78   70       77.5     #  9   #  3    # 62   # 14
Real Time                                              #  5   #  3    #112   #  4 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   78   64       86       #  3   #  1    # 86   #  3
DPPI                    +9.20   76   66.5     78.7     #  8   #  2    # 86   #  5 
ESPN BPI               +15.30                 91.1     # 12   #  7    # 66   #  6
Whitlock               +10.80                          #  6   #  2    # 72   #  5
Colley Matrix          +13.97                          #  3   #  3    # 84   #  5
NCAA NET                                               #  7           # 76 
LRMC                                                   # 10   #  2    # 66   #  4
common opponents        +9.30         
Massey composite                                       #  6           # 74
Pomeroy offense                                        #  7           # 83
Pomeroy defense                                        # 32           # 58
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 70           #118
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.98   77.0 67.7     83.2
scatter                  3.13    1.4  3.0      4.7

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher rated of potential future opponents:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 27 Michigan State              87  74    +5.99    +7.01
HOME   #224 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.54    +1.46
HOME   #234 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.35    +3.65
NEUT   # 82 North Texas                 71  59   +11.33    +0.67
NEUT   # 53 Dayton                      73  74    +8.75    -9.75
NEUT   #107 Iona College                96  83   +13.83    -0.83
AWAY   # 47 St. John's                  95  75    +5.86   +14.14
HOME   #160 UTEP                        78  52   +20.95    +5.05
HOME   #115 Missouri                   102  65   +17.27   +19.73
HOME   #119 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +17.75    -9.75
HOME   #114 Nevada                      88  61   +17.22    +9.78
HOME   #113 George Mason                76  67   +16.67    -7.67
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.40    +5.60
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.69    -7.31
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.26   -10.26
HOME   # 56 West Virginia               85  59   +11.42   +14.58
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.82    -1.82
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                78  75    +7.87    -4.87
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +4.13    -1.13
HOME   #  5 Kentucky                    62  80    +2.20   -20.20
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                  70  61    +6.44    +2.56
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  59    +1.61   +22.39
AWAY   # 17 Texas                       76  79    +1.11    -4.11
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.64    -7.64
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State              76  62   +10.22    +3.78
AWAY   # 56 West Virginia               71  58    +6.60    +6.40
HOME   # 72 Kansas State               102  83   +12.69    +6.31
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      70  80    -3.21    -6.79
AWAY   # 49 TCU                         64  74    +5.96   -15.96
HOME   # 49 TCU                         72  68   +10.78    -6.78
HOME   # 17 Texas                       70  63    +5.93    +1.07
NEUT   # 56 West Virginia                         +9.01             0.843
NEUT   # 17 Texas                                 +3.52             0.694
NEUT   #  3 Baylor                                -0.80             0.467

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #184 Oakland-Mich.               60  53   +13.28    -6.28
HOME   #153 Pittsburgh                  74  59   +11.78    +3.22
NEUT   #255 Elon                        87  68   +15.59    +3.41
NEUT   # 45 Marquette                   71  82    -0.86   -10.14
NEUT   # 74 Clemson                     66  59    +1.48    +5.52
HOME   #239 Eastern Kentucky            80  77   +16.76   -13.76
HOME   #197 Bellarmine                  74  55   +14.00    +5.00
HOME   #282 Radford                     67  51   +19.65    -3.65
HOME   # 19 Connecticut                 56  53    -2.81    +5.81
HOME   #141 Kent State                  63  50   +10.58    +2.42
AWAY   # 54 UAB                         65  59    -2.60    +8.60
HOME   #262 Youngstown State            82  52   +18.37   +11.63
AWAY   # 17 Texas                       59  74    -7.90    -7.10
HOME   # 72 Kansas State                71  68    +3.68    -0.68
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State              70  60    +1.21    +8.79
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                      59  85   -11.42   -14.58
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      68  77    -7.40    -1.60
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  65  78    -9.70    -3.30
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma                    62  72    +0.63   -10.63
AWAY   # 18 Arkansas                    68  77    -7.84    -1.16
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      77  81   -12.22    +8.22
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  53  60    -4.88    -2.12
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                  79  63    +2.25   +13.75
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State              58  81    -3.61   -19.39
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                73  78    -1.14    -3.86
HOME   #  6 Kansas                      58  71    -6.60    -6.40
AWAY   # 49 TCU                         67  77    -3.05    -6.95
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                  81  84    -2.57    -0.43
HOME   # 17 Texas                       81  82    -3.08    +2.08
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma                    59  72    -4.19    -8.81
HOME   # 49 TCU                         70  64    +1.77    +4.23
NEUT   # 72 Kansas State                73  67    +1.27    +4.73
NEUT   #  6 Kansas                                -9.01             0.157