predictions for Texas game

Kansas and Texas tip off two hours earlier than Baylor and Iowa State, so Kansas
has to play without knowing the outcome of Baylor's last gane, though they must
know how strongly Baylor is favored in that game, so the Jayhawks presumably have
the pressure on them to beat Texas in order to win a share of the conference
championship.  Not only that, but none of these current players were even alive
the last time Kansas lost a Senior Day game, so there is additional pressure to
keep that streak alive.  And Kansas remains undefeated at home in conference
play.  Whether that will help more than it burdens the Jayhawks with additional
pressure, who knows?  Yep, a lot riding on this game.

But it shouldn't be that daunting a task.  After all, the Jayhawks would have
won in Austin had they closed out each half properly.  Texas is somewhat more
consistent than Kansas, making it harder for them to overcome the 6 point margin.
They've played just eight of their thirty games above expectation by enough to
overcome that margin, for a 26.7 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile, Kansas
has played nine of their thirty games below expectation by enough to squander
a 6 point margin. for a 30.0 percent chance of losing.  Those two average to
28.3 percent, fairly similar to the 26.6 percent chance of losing that the
Sagarin Predictor ratings imply.

Trend and mental toughness values are negative for both teams, with weak
statistical significance of the trend for Kansas and the mental toughness
for Texas.  Taken at face value the 5.8 point margin for Kansas shrinks to
5.4 points.

Everyone is picking Kansas in the game.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is
the most optimistic at 11.9 points, while those back-to-back losses have
Kansas favored by only 3.6 points in Sagarin's Recent Games ratings, the
most pessimistic of the bunch.  The average of the various prognostications
is 6.7 points, with a scatter of 2.2 points.

Total points is hard to predict.  Texas plays the lowest-scoring games in the
conference.  Kansas plays the highest-scoring games in the conference.  Texas
allows the fewest points of any team in the conference.  Kansas scores the
most points of any team in the conference.  For the game in Austin, total
point predictions were on the low side, and the two teams came out and scored
155 total points.

Six seniors, only five can start.  You don't think Self would risk the
technical by having six players on the court to start the game, would he?
Too important a game for that.  If the Jayhawks want Teahan to see action,
they need to build up an insurmountable lead so that he can sub in for the
last couple minutes.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UT      KU      Defensive Stats      UT      KU
Points/Game         68.8    78.9     Opp Points/Game     59.1    68.8
Avg Score Margin    +9.7   +10.1     Opp Effective FG %  47.0    47.3
Assists/Game        13.1    15.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.1    10.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.4    37.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.7    24.6
Effective FG %      50.4    54.7     Blocks/Game          3.4     3.9
Off Rebound %       30.9    32.8     Steals/Game          7.8     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.326   0.317     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.2    15.6
Turnover %          15.5    15.4

My Stats Comparison        KU             UT
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.29           +0.30    
inconsistency          9.88            8.58    
trend                 -0.24 ± 0.21    -0.13 ± 0.18
mental toughness      -0.24 ± 0.25    -0.19 ± 0.13
average total pts      147.67         127.90    

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, all in conference, all of which both teams have
played twice, for which I'll only use the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head in Austin, giving us seventeen scores to compare:

KU  +26 WVU at home (+22 neutral court)     KU  +13 WVU on road (+17 neutral court)
UT  +15 WVU at home (+11 neutral court)     UT   +1 WVU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  +15 UT  at home (+11 neutral court)     KU  +16 UT  at home (+12 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
UT  +13 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     UT   -1 KSU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU   -6 UT  at home (-10 neutral court)     KU  +24 UT  at home (+20 neutral court)

KU  +11 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
UT  -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)     UT   +5 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +28 UT  at home (+24 neutral court)     KU  +13 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +3 OU  on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT  +14 OU  at home (+10 neutral court)     UT   +2 OU  on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU   -8 UT  at home (-12 neutral court)     KU   +5 UT  at home ( +1 neutral court)

KU   +9 ISU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 ISU at home ( -3 neutral court)
UT   -9 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)     UT  +22 ISU at home (+18 neutral court)
KU  +22 UT  at home (+18 neutral court)     KU  -17 UT  at home (-21 neutral court)

KU  -10 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral court)
UT  +23 TCU on road (+27 neutral court)     UT   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU  -29 UT  at home (-33 neutral court)     KU   -1 UT  at home ( -5 neutral court)

KU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UT  -13 TTU on road ( -9 neutral court)     UT   -6 TTU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +13 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)

KU  -10 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +24 BU  at home (+20 neutral court)
UT  -17 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     UT   -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +35 UT  at home (+31 neutral court)

KU   -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +5 UT  at home ( +1 neutral court)

The average is 7.94 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 16.39 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Marcus Carr (guard)
most points        Timmy Allen (forward)
most rebounds      Timmy Allen (forward)
most assists       Marcus Carr (guard)
most steals        Timmy Allen (forward)
most blocks        Christian Bishop (forward)
most turnovers     Timmy Allen (forward)
most fouls         Timmy Allen (forward)

Center Tre Mitchell has been on a personal leave; he's sixth on the team in minutes
played per game.  Who knows when he'll decide to come back?

                                                          24-6           21-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +5.76   68   63       71       #  4   # 13    # 50   # 37
Sagarin Predictor       +5.80   68   63       73.4     #  4   # 13    # 54   # 37 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +6.40   69   62                #  2   # 13    # 49   # 37 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.57   67   64                #  9   # 13    # 51   # 37 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.89   72   60       85    
Massey                  +5.00   71   66       66       #  9   #  3    # 17   # 50
Pomeroy                 +4.59   71   66                # 10   #  3    # 15   # 31
Greenfield              +6.50   72   65.5              # 10   #  5    # 17   # 14
Dunkel                  +9.50   77   68                #  9           # 22
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   72   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +5.86   71   66       70.1     # 10   #  3    # 15   #  8
Real Time               +9.00   79   70       68.4     #  5   #  3    # 19   # 59 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   71   67       79       #  5   #  1    # 41   # 63
DPPI                    +4.37   70   65       63.2     #  6   #  2    # 21   # 45 
ESPN BPI                +6.50                 74.0     # 12   #  7    # 17   # 25
Whitlock                +6.70                          #  7   #  2    # 18   # 35
Colley Matrix           +9.78                          #  1   #  3    # 31   # 61
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 16 
LRMC                                                   # 10   #  2    # 18   # 63
common opponents        +7.94         
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 18
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           # 29
Pomeroy defense                                        # 40           # 16
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 71           #339
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +6.65   71.3 65.1     72.2
scatter                  2.22    3.3  2.6      6.7

Here is Kansas' season, for which the current season projection is back down
to 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 26 Michigan State              87  74    +6.11    +6.89
HOME   #229 Tarleton State              88  62   +24.89    +1.11
HOME   #236 Stony Brook-NY              88  59   +25.38    +3.62
NEUT   # 80 North Texas                 71  59   +10.99    +1.01
NEUT   # 51 Dayton                      73  74    +8.72    -9.72
NEUT   #106 Iona College                96  83   +13.81    -0.81
AWAY   # 49 St. John's                  95  75    +6.10   +13.90
HOME   #172 UTEP                        78  52   +21.64    +4.36
HOME   #118 Missouri                   102  65   +17.69   +19.31
HOME   #125 Stephen F. Austin           80  72   +18.29   -10.29
HOME   #121 Nevada                      88  61   +18.01    +8.99
HOME   #107 George Mason                76  67   +16.23    -7.23
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State              74  63    +5.21    +5.79
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  67  75    -0.89    -7.11
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                  62  61   +11.19   -10.19
HOME   # 58 West Virginia               85  59   +11.62   +14.38
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    67  64    +4.73    -1.73
AWAY   # 69 Kansas State                78  75    +7.65    -4.65
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  94  91    +3.87    -0.87
HOME   #  5 Kentucky                    62  80    +2.21   -20.21
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                  70  61    +6.43    +2.57
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      83  59    +1.24   +22.76
AWAY   # 17 Texas                       76  79    +1.03    -4.03
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                    71  69    +9.49    -7.49
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              76  62    +9.97    +4.03
AWAY   # 58 West Virginia               71  58    +6.86    +6.14
HOME   # 69 Kansas State               102  83   +12.41    +6.59
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      70  80    -3.52    -6.48
AWAY   # 45 TCU                         64  74    +5.60   -15.60
HOME   # 45 TCU                         72  68   +10.36    -6.36
HOME   # 17 Texas                                 +5.79             0.734

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #345 Houston Baptist             92  48   +31.24   +12.76
AWAY   #  1 Gonzaga                     74  86   -10.75    -1.25
HOME   #197 Northern Colorado           62  49   +19.61    -6.61
HOME   #282 San Jose State              79  45   +25.32    +8.68
HOME   #210 California Baptist          68  44   +20.39    +3.61
HOME   #183 Sam Houston State           73  57   +18.50    -2.50
HOME   #296 UTRGV                       88  58   +26.28    +3.72
AWAY   # 30 Seton Hall                  60  64    +0.50    -4.50
HOME   #354 Ark.-Pine Bluff             63  31   +34.06    -2.06
NEUT   # 95 Stanford                    60  53    +9.09    -2.09
HOME   #324 Alabama State               68  48   +28.63    -8.63
HOME   #350 Incarnate Word              78  33   +32.37   +12.63
HOME   # 58 West Virginia               74  59    +8.21    +6.79
AWAY   # 69 Kansas State                70  57    +4.24    +8.76
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State              51  64    +1.80   -14.80
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.08    +7.92
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                  70  79    +3.02   -12.02
HOME   # 69 Kansas State                65  66    +9.00   -10.00
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State              56  51    +6.56    -1.56
AWAY   # 45 TCU                         73  50    +2.19   +20.81
HOME   # 11 Tennessee                   52  51    +0.00    +1.00
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  64  77    -4.30    -8.70
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                  63  41    +7.78   +14.22
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      79  76    -1.03    +4.03
AWAY   #  3 Baylor                      63  80    -6.93   -10.07
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    80  78    +1.32    +0.68
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  55  61    +0.46    -6.46
HOME   # 45 TCU                         75  66    +6.95    +2.05
AWAY   # 58 West Virginia               82  81    +3.45    -2.45
HOME   #  3 Baylor                      61  68    -2.17    -4.83
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -5.79             0.266