Big 12 projection, Round 17

Being the last game of the regular season, the fractional part of the latest
projected number of wins is just the probability of winning that final game.

                      Init.  Rd. 1  Rd. 2  Rd. 3  Rd. 4  Rd. 5  Rd. 6  Rd. 7  Rd. 8  Rd. 9  Rd.10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  3  Baylor          14.0   14.1   14.3   14.8   13.8   12.5   12.8   13.3   13.4   13.3   12.6 
#  7  Kansas          14.0   13.8   14.4   13.3   13.1   13.4   13.8   13.9   14.1   14.3   14.7 
# 13  Texas Tech       9.7    9.8    9.1   10.0   11.8   10.7   11.2   11.6   11.4   12.1   12.5 
# 17  Texas           10.6   11.2   11.7   10.6   11.2   10.6    9.5    9.4   10.0    9.5   10.1 
# 45  TCU              6.2    6.2    6.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    6.4    7.5    6.9    8.0    7.2 
# 43  Oklahoma State   7.3    7.3    6.8    7.7    6.6    7.9    7.9    7.7    7.1    6.6    7.1 
# 52  Iowa State       6.7    6.6    7.2    6.9    7.2    8.0    7.7    6.8    7.4    7.2    6.9 
# 68  Kansas State     4.9    4.8    4.3    4.2    3.5    4.5    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.8    6.7 
# 38  Oklahoma         8.7    8.8    8.6    9.3    8.9    8.1    7.8    7.3    8.0    7.0    6.4 
# 58  West Virginia    7.9    7.4    7.4    7.6    7.8    7.6    7.2    6.9    6.2    6.2    5.9 

                      Rd.11  Rd.12  Rd.13  Rd.14  Rd.15  Rd.16  Rd.17
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  ------  ---------   -----------
#  3  Baylor          12.9   13.2   12.6   12.8   13.0   13.4   13.872  13  4   ISU (Sa)   BU  by 12.4
#  7  Kansas          14.1   14.2   14.4   14.7   14.8   14.4   13.736  13  4   UT  (Sa)   KU  by  5.8
# 13  Texas Tech      11.7   11.9   12.4   13.0   13.3   12.6   12.638  12  5  @OSU (Sa)   TTU by  3.7
# 17  Texas           10.6   10.3   10.7   10.2   10.4   10.7   10.264  10  7  @KU  (Sa)              
# 45  TCU              7.7    7.5    6.9    6.7    7.0    7.7    8.450   8  9  @WVU (Sa)              
# 43  Oklahoma State   6.7    7.2    7.0    7.4    7.1    6.8    7.362   7 10   TTU (Sa)              
# 52  Iowa State       6.2    5.6    6.2    6.8    7.2    7.7    7.128   7 10  @BU  (Sa)              
# 68  Kansas State     6.5    7.2    7.6    7.2    7.1    6.6    6.480   6 11   OU  (Sa)              
# 38  Oklahoma         7.2    7.0    6.6    6.0    5.8    6.1    6.520   6 11  @KSU (Sa)   OU  by  0.5
# 58  West Virginia    6.4    5.9    5.4    5.2    4.3    4.0    3.550   3 14   TCU (Sa)   WVU by  1.1

Sagarin Recent Games took honors for best prognostications in Round 17, while Sagarin's eigenvector
analysis pulled up the rear.  Greenfield retains the season lead by a half point over Vegas, with
Massey and Dolphin nipping at their heels.  Dunkel remains the worst of the lot for the season.

Two road wins are projected for Round 18, namely Texas Tech in Stillwater and Oklahoma at Manhattan,
though that one can easily go eithre way, so it's looking like we'll finish with either two or three
road wins more than the long-term average of one in three.

Road wins (31 out of 85)                     Home losses                                       RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ -------
7 Baylor         ISU TCU WVU OU  KSU OSU UT  0 Kansas                                         +5 BU
5 Kansas         OSU OU  KSU ISU WVU         0 Texas Tech                                     +5 KU 
4 Texas          KSU TCU OU  WVU             2 Baylor         TTU OSU                         +3 TTU
3 Iowa State     OSU TCU KSU                 3 Texas          KSU TTU BU                      +1 UT 
3 Kansas State   UT  TCU ISU                 3 Oklahoma State KU  ISU BU                      -1 OSU
3 TCU            KSU ISU OU                  4 Oklahoma       KU  BU  TCU UT                  -1 TCU
3 Texas Tech     BU  WVU UT                  4 TCU            BU  UT  KSU ISU                 -2 ISU
2 Oklahoma State BU  ISU                     5 Iowa State     BU  TCU KU  KSU OSU             -2 KSU          
1 Oklahoma       WVU                         5 Kansas State   UT  TCU KU  BU  ISU             -3 OU 
0 West Virginia                              5 West Virginia  BU  OU  TTU KU  UT              -5 WVU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)
---------------------    ----------------------
Baylor          +1.09    West Virginia     8.07
Kansas State    +1.09    Kansas State      8.42
Iowa State      +1.08    Texas             8.58
Texas Tech      +0.93    TCU               9.70
TCU             +0.41    Kansas            9.86
Texas           +0.31    Baylor            9.89
Oklahoma State  +0.28    Texas Tech       10.18
Kansas          +0.27    Oklahoma State   10.98
Oklahoma        +0.10    Oklahoma         11.48
West Virginia   -1.07    Iowa State       11.76

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
TCU             +0.32 +/- 0.21    Iowa State      +0.23 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      +0.16 +/- 0.22    TCU             +0.10 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.19    Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State  +0.00 +/- 0.23    Texas Tech      +0.03 +/- 0.15
West Virginia   -0.13 +/- 0.17    Oklahoma State   0.00 +/- 0.23
Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.18    Oklahoma        -0.09 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        -0.22 +/- 0.24    West Virginia   -0.16 +/- 0.16
Iowa State      -0.23 +/- 0.25    Baylor          -0.18 +/- 0.16
Kansas          -0.24 +/- 0.21    Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.13
Baylor          -0.30 +/- 0.20    Kansas          -0.24 +/- 0.25

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
Kansas          78.47   Texas           59.70   Kansas          147.67   Baylor          +13.00
Baylor          76.53   Texas Tech      61.57   Baylor          140.07   Texas Tech      +10.97
Texas Tech      72.53   Iowa State      62.97   West Virginia   137.03   Kansas           +9.27
Kansas State    68.79   Baylor          63.53   Kansas State    135.90   Texas            +8.50
Oklahoma State  68.59   Oklahoma        65.07   Oklahoma State  135.10   Iowa State       +3.63
Texas           68.20   TCU             65.21   Texas Tech      134.10   Oklahoma         +3.03
Oklahoma        68.10   Oklahoma State  66.52   TCU             133.21   TCU              +2.79
West Virginia   68.10   Kansas State    67.10   Oklahoma        133.17   Oklahoma State   +2.07
TCU             68.00   West Virginia   68.93   Iowa State      129.57   Kansas State     +1.69
Iowa State      66.60   Kansas          69.20   Texas           127.90   West Virginia    -0.83

Both Texas and Texas Tech finish on the road, so it seems possible, if not likely, that everyone
will finish in the Top 30 in schedule strength.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas State    81.50 ( 5) up   8
Kansas          81.16 ( 7) up   3
West Virginia   81.10 ( 8) up   7
Baylor          81.03 (10) up   9
Oklahoma State  81.01 (11) up   5
Oklahoma        80.91 (16) down 4
TCU             80.12 (24) up  12
Iowa State      79.72 (29) even  
Texas Tech      79.52 (31) down 3
Texas           79.37 (34) up   9